Padres vs. Cubs Betting Preview: How Wind, Weather At Wrigley Field Will Affect Over/Under in Friday Matinee
Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Wrigley Field in Chicago.
Betting odds: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
- Padres moneyline: +155
- Cubs moneyline: -165
- Over/Under: 12.5
- First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
There is nothing quite like a day game at Wrigley Field. On Friday, the Cubs will host their 28th day game (4 p.m. ET or earlier) of the 2019 season. The Cubs are 17-10 in those games and the under is 14-11-2, going under the total by the slightest of margins (0.24 runs per game).
On Friday though, the winds are swirling at Wrigley Field, with an average wind speed of 12 MPH headed directly out to center field.
Using Bet Labs, let’s examine how over/under’s are impacted by the strength and direction of the wind at Wrigley Field.
Maybe a bit of a surprise, but dating back to 2005, the under is 611-546-48 (52.8%) at Wrigley Field, profiting bettors $3,218. Wrigley is the fifth-most profitable ballpark to the under in that span.
When the games were played during the day At Wrigley, there hasn’t been too much of an adjustment, with the under winning at a 51.9% clip.
Where the biggest advantage comes into play at Wrigley Field is when the wind becomes a factor.
When the wind is blowing out to center field, which it is for Friday’s matinee, the over is 79-51-4 (60.8%), going over the total by 1.6 runs per game.
Pile on the fact that the average projected wind for Friday’s Padres/Cubs game is going to be around 12 MPH and we may be in for some fly ball home runs.
With the Cubs game scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET, is there any advantage to day games at Wrigley Field?
Since 2005, overs are hitting at a 48.1% rate during day games (4 p.m. ET or earlier) at Wrigley Field, going over the total by 0.4 runs per game.
When the wind is blowing out at Wrigley during a day game, the over is an astonishing 54-23-1 (70.1%), going over the total by a whopping 2.5 runs per game…
When the wind is blowing out during the day for Jon Lester starts, the results have been a clean sweep.
The over is 6-0, going over the total by an astounding 8 runs per game, with an average of a combined 18.5 runs per game scored by both teams.
With the fear of wind at Wrigley Field on Friday, the over/under for the game didn’t even get released in the market until 19 hours after the moneyline opened. The total opened at 12 and has since been bet up to 12.5.
Not only is it going to be windy at Wrigley on Friday, but it is supposed to be a pretty humid day (54% humidity) and in this spot, the more hot and humid, the more the runs seem to pile up.
- 40% humidity or higher: 70.3% win rate | +2.6 run diff
- 45% humidity or higher: 71.4% win rate | +2.8 run diff
- 50% humidity or higher: 72.1% win rate | +3.0 run diff
Being in the dead middle of summer, how does the late months of the season affect totals in this spot?
In July or later, looking at day games at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out, the over is 36-11-1 (76.6%), going over the total by 3.3 runs per game.
Make sure to keep up to date with the weather report for Friday’s matinee at Wrigley Field before placing your bets.