Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Buster Posey (left) and Manuel Margot (right)
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, 4:05 p.m. ET
- Padres (Jordan Lyles): +128
- Giants (Andrew Suarez): -142
- Over/under 8.5
Bet to Watch
The last time I called for runs, I got rain instead. Thankfully, there is a less than 1% chance of precipitation in San Francisco this afternoon.
In addition to the clear skies, wind is expected to be blowing straight out to center all throughout the game, which provides over bettors a slight edge. In games with wind blowing straight out at 7+ miles per hour — as it is today — the over is 1366-1227-142, winning 86 units since 2005.
I’m also encouraged by the home plate umpire in today’s game. Pat Hoberg doesn’t have a huge sample size behind the dish, but his games have gone over 54.2% of the time, winning seven units since 2014.
And for what it’s worth, Hoberg’s over record in games fitting today’s wind description is 14-2-1.
As for the betting market, the over is unsurprisingly attracting the majority of bettors (as it is in all but one game on today’s slate), so it’s certainly reassuring to see that sharps are in agreement.
Behind the three steam moves on the over, this total has risen from 8 to 8.5.
Everything seems in place for this to be a perfect over play. The bullpens are my only concern. Both the Padres and Giants have had surprisingly adequate bullpens this season, each ranking in the top six in ERA for the National League.
For that reason, I’m splitting my bets into two half-unit plays.
The pick: Over 8.5 (0.5u), F5 Over 4.5 (0.5u)
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.