Phillies vs Astros Player Props, Picks for World Series Game 1
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola
We’ve made it to Game 1 of the World Series. It’s been a long ride.
It can be hard to find any value on a side or total with just one baseball game on the slate, especially given the variable nature of the sport.
However, there’s almost always value in the player props market, and I found two numbers I believe have value today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Odds via BetRivers
Aaron Nola has destroyed these Astros.
In 47 career PAs against current Astros hitters, Nola has allowed six hits with a 17:1 K/BB ratio. He’s posted a 32.3% whiff rate while allowing an avg. exit velocity under 84 mph and an xSLG under .200.
In two starts against Houston, Nola posted stat lines of:
- 7/26/2017: 6.0 IP, 103 pitches, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
- 10/3/2022: 6.2 IP, 88 pitches, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
Nola also posted a ridiculous 40% CSW rate in his last start against Houston.
Nola pitches many innings, loves to throw early strikes and takes advantage once he’s in pitcher’s counts. He became the second pitcher in MLB history to strike out more than 220 batters while walking fewer than 30 in a single season.
Nola struck out at least six batters in 25 of his 32 starts this season and in all three playoff starts.
The Astros are a scary lineup, especially from a discipline perspective. But they’ve allowed five of the last six opposing right-handed starting pitchers to go over their strikeout totals.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Nola for 6.3 strikeouts in Game 1 of the World Series. That gives us plenty of value to bet the over on Nola tonight.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-104)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Odds via DraftKings
If there is a batter who can get to Nola, it’s likely Yordan Alvarez.
Alvarez is arguably the second-best pure hitter in baseball. He’s a hard-hitting machine who posted an OPS of over 1.000 this season.
While he hasn’t had a big enough sample size to take advantage, Alvarez is 1-for-3 off Nola with the one batted ball being a 105.4 mph single. Also, Alvarez cooks four-seam fastballs and sinkers, two of Nola’s favorite pitches.
This should be a good matchup for Alvarez. The lefty posted an OPS 30 points higher against RHPs than LHPs and an ISO 60 points higher.
Meanwhile, Nola’s wOBA was lower against LHBs this season but he was a bit lucky. His BABIP against LHHs was just .260, compared to .317 against RHHs. As a result, Nola posted an xFIP 50 points higher against LHBs.
Alvarez played spectacularly in the ALDS against Seattle, although his numbers dropped in the ALCS against New York. But he still posted a 50% hard-hit rate over 18 PAs, meaning he’s making solid contact. He finished the series by compiling three bases in a decisive Game 4 victory, including this game-tying base knock.
BallParkPal’s Player Props Tool makes the fair price on Alvarez’s bases total +110, meaning there’s value being offered on this line at DraftKings.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+130)