MLB Sharp Betting Picks (Wednesday, July 29): Smart Money Hitting Rays vs. Braves, Mariners vs. Angels
Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels is congratulated by Brian Goodwin #18
Professional bettors got down early on the Rockies vs. Athletics over/under, as well as the Brewers vs. Pirates moneyline and total — and now they’ve turned their attention to two more Wednesday games: Rays vs. Braves and Mariners vs. Angels.
Using The Action Network’s MLB public betting data and smart money indicators, let’s detail how the sharps are approaching these two matchups.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Atlanta Braves Sharp Betting Pick
7:10 p.m. ET | Charlie Morton (0-1, 13.50 ERA) vs. Mike Soroka (0-0, 0.00)
This game is about as textbook as it gets for sharps lining up on one side of a moneyline.
Sixty percent of tickets have landed on the Braves, so why would Atlanta move from a -140 favorite down to -116? Because while just four out of every 10 bets are taking the Rays, that minority also includes sharps — bettors with the respect and resources to get the attention of oddsmakers and move the market.
Sports Insights’ Bet Signals were designed to track market activity and report these instances, and have done just that here evidenced by three steam moves on Tampa Bay.
While casual bettors are siding with the home favorites, professional action has driven the Rays from +120 to +100.
Sharp angle: Rays (moved from +120 to +100) [Bet now at PointsBet and Win $100 if the Rays get at least one hit]
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Sharp Betting Pick
10:10 p.m. ET | Justin Dunn (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (0-0, 1.93)
While Rays-Braves offers a clear-cut example of sharp money, Mariners-Angels is a lot trickier.
Smart money has come down on this total, but considering the number sits at the opener of 9, how can we tell?
The answer is by using public betting and Bet Signals (as we did above), but also digging into the line history of this game.
Again, on the periphery, 54% of bets on the over with 98% (!) of money on the under seems like a slam-dunk example of large wagers backing a lower-scoring game.
Throw in the fact that Bet Signals have triggered three smart money indicators on the under as well and it seems like this total should be plummeting.
Well, while it doesn’t seem to have moved much when comparing the current line to the opener, the line history tells a different story.
After initially posting at 9, the total did push up to 9.5 this morning, and that’s when professionals steamed the under, kicking it right back to the opener.
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]