MLB Sharp Betting Pick: Brewers vs. Pirates (Wednesday, July 29)

Credit:

Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove

  • Sharp bettors have been moving the moneyline and over/under in Wednesday's Brewers-Pirates matchup.
  • Danny Donahue details which way Pros are betting the both below.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Odds

Brewers Odds -157 [Bet Now]
Pirates Odds +133 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 8.5 (-122/+100) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of 10:30 a.m. and via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


First pitch is still hours away, but sharp bettors have been very active this morning — specifically toward the Brewers-Pirates matchup, on both the moneyline and total … especially the total.

After a 14-run output last night, these two opened with an over/under of 9 for tonight’s battle between aces Brandon Woodruff and Joe Musgrove.

That number didn’t last very long.

Brewers vs. Pirates Sharp Betting Report

7:05 p.m. ET | Brandon Woodruff vs. Joe Musgrove

Even before Tuesday turned to Wednesday, this number had already been shifted in most spots to 8.5, which is made far more interesting by the fact that 66% of bettors to this point have taken the over.

Of course, that usually means there’s something about the bettors going the other way that’s catching attention of oddsmakers — in other words, they’re much more respected (they’re sharps).

To confirm that, five Sports Insights Bet Signals — indicators of market movement caused by sharp action — have been triggered on the under since last night. That includes a most recent steam move at 8.5 (+102), pushing the under to minus-money territory.

It’s certainly worth noting that the market has finally started to settle back in the other direction, with most shops listing the under at an even 8.5 (+100). Our signals have not, however, suggested that pushback to be a result of sharp money.

Also worth noting has been the massive discrepancy between the percentage of bets and actual money hitting the under. While its 34% backing obviously doesn’t suggest it’s a very popular play, it has accounted for the majority of money (76%), suggesting that bigger bettors — ones more likely to be sharps — are among that betting minority.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)

[Bet the under at +120 odds with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

On the topic of bet-vs.-money discrepancies, the Pirates also happen to be boasting a massive one of their own pertaining to the moneyline.

Even with their comeback win last night, they haven’t been a very popular pick in the early market today, attracting just 31% of bettors. But those bettors have generated 74% of actual money, telling us once again how the bigger, sharper bettors are playing this game.

Another steam move hit the Buccos moneyline at an early +152 number, helping explain why they currently sit at just +133 at Parx.

Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +152 to +133)

[Bet the Pirates at +160 odds with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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