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Rockies vs. Padres Odds, Preview, Prediction: Underdog Colorado Has Value (Sunday, July 11)

Rockies vs. Padres Odds, Preview, Prediction: Underdog Colorado Has Value (Sunday, July 11) article feature image

Ralph Freso/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Gray.

Rockies vs. Padres Odds

Rockies Odds +155
Padres Odds -182
Over/Under 8.5
Time Sunday, 4:10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings

The Padres will go for the series win over the Rockies in Sunday’s rubber match in San Diego, but the series has hardly been anything to celebrate. After four runs on Friday, the Fathers were shut out on Saturday, and will need to turn things around against Colorado‘s ace.

Are they due for a turnaround, or do the numbers tell us something different? Let’s have a look at the matchup below.

Rockies Turn to Gray to Close First Half

It’s Jon Gray day on Sunday, which means the Rockies will have as good a chance as ever of taking another game. Colorado is just below .500 in his starts, which for a team that is 39-51 would constitute as good. The right-hander enters with a good 3.94 ERA and a great 3.72 xERA, and has brought his hard-hit rate all the way down to 36.6%, the lowest it’s been in four years.

Gray’s best asset has been his slider, which has generated 37.5% whiff rate and yielded a .149 batting average. His fastball has been his go-to pitch, but hitters are .300 against it, making it a huge weakness. He has flashed great upside in the strikeout department, though he comes in with average numbers in that department, and walks have been an issue at times.

With all of that said, he’s going to give this team the best chance to win. The offense, however, is not. It’s ranked 25th in OPS over the last week, which is no shocker, and on the road the Rockies’ bats have been predictably bad. That didn’t stop them from winning on Saturday, but that was behind just three runs. Scoring should be at a premium, though it’s worth noting the Rockies have a 93 wRC+ against lefties, which is almost league average!

Can San Diego Trust Weathers?

That lefty is Ryan Weathers, who has been about league average, but his peripherals are anything but. His .399 xwOBA on contact and 5.12 expected ERA according to Statcast would throw cold water on his 3.02 ERA, as would the fact that 44.6% of all balls that have come back in play have been 95 mph off the bat or more.

The Padres haven’t needed him to be elite, considering their offense has really ratcheted up into form lately. They rank seventh in wRC+ over the last two weeks, though during that time they’ve been outside the top 10 in hard-hit rate and all the way down in 17th when it comes to contact rate. It is shocking to see these numbers, and the walk rate looks rather pedestrian at 9.3%, considering how many games the Padres have still won and the fact that they’re almost in the top five in wRC+.

This could be a sign that a 3-0 defeat at the hands of the Rockies wasn’t a fluke, but more a result of what we’ve seen underneath the surface lately. It’s been a challenge getting runners on base and moving them around for the Padres and facing Gray it might not be a fun time.

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Rockies-Padres Pick

It seems like Rockies bettors caught lightning in a bottle on Saturday, and that it’d be a fool’s errand to bet them for a second straight game. The fact remains that Colorado can hit lefties, Weathers is due for regression and it has its ace on the hill.

The Padres’ struggles on offense are real at the moment, with no sort of consistency at the dish. I see this game a lot closer and would not make a line like this.

Pick: Rockies +155

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