- The All-Star break provides a logical opportunity to reevaluate the MLB futures market.
- I see significant value in one particular AL team that I think isn't being respected enough.
- I also think a wide-open National League presents a good opportunity to throw a dart.
Before the season, I backed only one team in the World Series futures market. While I’m happy with the 30-1 price I got on the Mariners, I don’t think they can sustain their pace — especially with new injury concerns surrounding ace James Paxton. They will get Robinson Cano back on Aug. 14, but he’s ineligible for the postseason. And I’m still waiting for closer Edwin Diaz’s arm to fall off.
I do see another American League team in the futures market that I think still holds significant value. I also took a flier on a longshot in the wide-open National League. Let’s take a closer look at both.
Barring catastrophic collapses or insurmountable injuries, we pretty much know four of the five AL playoff teams: Astros, Yankees, Red Sox and Indians.
From there, it’s a battle for the second wild card — likely between the aforementioned Mariners (25-1), Athletics (80-1) and possibly the Rays. While my colleague sees value in the Rays at 750-1 (which does seem absurdly high), I don’t see them making a run in a very top-heavy American League.
That leaves the four obvious choices.