Sunday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 4 Best Bets for Angels vs. Mariners & Rockies vs. Padres (July 11)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jon Gray.
We have another loaded card of Major League Baseball games on Sunday as we head into the All-Star Break, highlighted by some juicy matinee matchups.
Our Action Network analysts have uncovered four of their favorite bets, with two coming in the National League showdown between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres.
Kenny Ducey, Matt Trebby, Collin Whitchurch and Sean Zerillo have you covered and deliver their top selections below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Blue Jays vs. Rays
Kenny Ducey: Father Time appears to be catching Rich Hill, who stumbled to a 4.56 ERA in June. He was able to make it just 3 1/3 innings in a decent outing against the Cleveland Indians last week. The walks have been up for a second consecutive year; the hard-hit rate is way up to 36.6% — his highest since Statcast started tracking that in 2015; and, his fastball has been hit much harder, even though it’s up to 88 mph from 87 this season.
That was a mouthful, but it’s the truth. This isn’t a good pitcher at the moment. Now, he’ll have to take on the Blue Jays, which he should take no pleasure in. They rank in the top 10 in wRC+ to lefties, though over the past week they have just a .688 OPS. The walks should come up though, as should the power numbers against Hill.
It probably won’t take much with Robbie Ray on the hill against a team that’s hitting .229 against lefties this year. Although the Rays have been red hot, Ray has been even hotter, with a 2.86 ERA in the month of June to get his numbers back to above-average.
His strikeout and whiff rates are way up, and despite the fact that Tampa has hit well over the last week it did strike out at a 26% clip. I don’t like this matchup.
Angels vs. Mariners
Matt Trebby: While Héctor Santiago awaits his appeal on the “foreign substance” that was found on his glove, he’s going to start for the Seattle Mariners.
The Los Angeles Angels began the month by winning five of six against the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox before running into the upstart Mariners, who find themselves six games over .500 entering the final game of the season.
Starting/Opening for the Angels is José Suarez, whose 2.37 ERA is not backed by a 4.18 xFIP. The Angels’ bullpen has not backed any of its starters this season, with a 4.76 ERA this season that ranks 22nd in the majors.
I’m not going to sit here and lie to you that Santiago inspires a lot more confidence than Suarez, but the veteran southpaw hasn’t allowed a run in seven of his last nine appearances, and the Mariners’ bullpen enters this one with a 4.07 ERA this season.
Frankly, this game is so close because of Shohei Ohtani. People love backing a superstar, but Ohtani has been all the Angels have this season. Mike Trout and Justin Upton were thriving when they got hurt, and Anthony Rendon is yet to hit the heights that Los Angeles hoped he would when they gave him $245 million guaranteed.
The best number on the Mariners as of Sunday morning is -113 at DraftKings, and I’d play that up to -125 odds.
Rockies vs. Padres
Collin Whitchurch: On the final day before the baseball world heads to Denver for the Midsummer Classic, the event hosts are wrapping up a series in San Diego with a sneaky-good pitching matchup between Jon Gray and Ryan Weathers.
Gray has rebounded nicely from what was just an abysmal 2020 campaign to form a decent 1-2 punch with Germán Márquez atop the Rockies’ rotation. His walks are up but his strikeouts are, too, and in his last three outings he’s punched out 23 with just five walks in 17 innings.
It’s also worth noting that two of those starts were on the road, a place Colorado has been terrible all season. Simply put, Gray has been giving the Rockies a chance virtually every time he takes the mound, something that can’t usually be said about a team that’s 8-34 away from Coors Field.
Weathers remains one of the more promising young pitchers in the majors, but has had his ups and downs this season while San Diego treats him with kid gloves.
Given Colorado’s road woes, I like his chances to get through the order a time or two with minimal damage, which is why I’m focused on the under here through the first five innings, as both pitchers have a solid shot and getting into the late innings with the game still in doubt.
It’s also worth noting that San Diego has three position player All-Stars, and given the fact that All-Stars don’t TRULY get a break, the Sunday prior to the event is often a good opportunity for managers to rest those stars or at least get them out of their games early.
With Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth all heading to Denver after the game, there’s a solid possibility there.
I would take the first five innings under 4.5 between the Padres and Rockies at +100 and bet it to -110 odds.
Rockies vs. Padres
Sean Zerillo: Colorado has struggled as a team this season, particularly on the road, where it holds an abysmal 8-34 record. Trade rumors surrounding Germán Márquez (3.74 xERA, 3.46 xFIP, 3.90 SIERA) have picked up, but I think Jon Gray’s efforts (3.51 xERA, 4.21 xFIP, 4.43 SIERA) this season have gone overlooked.
The righty is mostly pitching to his career metrics (3.79 xFIP, 4.01 SIERA) while throwing his slider more than ever before (36.2%) and increasing his groundball rate (51.3% to a career-high). I’m interested to see if Gray can finally get out of Colorado and perform well for a competitive team down the stretch.
While he remains with the Rockies, Gray is getting support from the best defense in the National League (+50 Defensive Runs Saved). However, the Rockies’ offense (77 wRC+) ranks dead last in baseball, averaging just 4.3 runs per game while playing in a superior offensive environment.
Padres’ starter Ryan Weathers (4.73 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 4.60 SIERA) is still young (21-years-old) and developing, and he has good tools, but the southpaw has been very fortunate this season (.247 BABIP, 86% stand rate). His ERA stands to regress from 3.02 towards the mid 4’s (projected FIP range from 4.38 to 4.55) over the remainder of the season.
I projected the Rockies as 48.8% underdogs for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday and at 43.5% for the game. I would bet those lines down to +115 and +145, respectively. And I’d add some Rockies F5 Spread (+0.5) to -115 odds.
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