Sunday MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Jonathan Heasley, Adam Wainwright (August 28)
Joe Puetz/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals.
I hope everyone’s first college football Saturday was profitable.
If you have some extra change lying around, I’ve identified two MLB pitcher props that provide value on Sunday’s slate.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Jonathan Heasley Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|Padres vs. Royals||Padres -190|
|First Pitch||2:10 p.m. ET|
Jon Heasley is not a guy you hear a lot about. He’s the Royals’ No. 25 to No. 35 overall prospect depending on the list, and he never really blew it up in the Minors.
But given the current state of the Royals, Heasley continues to get starts. And Vegas continues to undervalue him in the strikeout market.
I’ve backed Heasley in this column before, and he has cashed this number in eight of his last 11 starts. While his strikeout numbers have yet to pop off the page at the MLB level, he does have strikeout stuff. He struck out over 10 batters per nine innings at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
The Padres strike out at a league-average rate, which actually works in Heasley’s favor. But past that, the Padres have allowed 11 of the past 14 opposing starting pitchers to go over their strikeout total.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Heasley for 3.5 Ks today, and FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections agree. That gives us plenty of value at this line.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-140)
Adam Wainwright Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)
|Braves vs. Cardinals||Cardinals -132|
|First Pitch||7:08 p.m. ET|
Adam Wainwright does not work in the same way he used to. He topped out at 8.93 K/9 in 2018 and those numbers have dropped continuously ever since.
Waino just doesn’t miss bats anymore. His 7% Swinging-Strike rate ranks in just the seventh percentile of qualified starting pitchers.
However, Wainwright relies heavily on his curveball to force foul balls and back door called strikes against lefties. As a result, his CSW rate is up at 29%, ranking in the 60th percentile of qualified pitchers.
Plus, Wainwright just provides length. He’s so experienced and skilled that he can work his way through almost any lineup. At 40 years old, Wainwright has logged a whopping 156 1/3 innings over 25 starts (6 1/3 innings per start). Only six pitchers in baseball have thrown more.
Did I mention he’s 40 years old?
Combine his length and half-decent CSW rate, and Wainwright consistently cashes his strikeout total at a rate of just over 60%. He’s struck out five or more in 15 of 25 starts this season and in 35 of 57 starts dating back to last season.
Plus, Waino’s got a good matchup with the Braves. Atlanta has struck out at the third-highest rate against RHPs over the past month (25.3%) and Wainwright took the Braves for 11 strikeouts over seven innings last June.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Waino for 5.2 strikeouts today, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5.4.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-132)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
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