MLB Player Props & Picks: 2 Bets for Tuesday, Including Kyle Bradish & Garrett Whitlock
Greg Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Bradish.
- With every team in action today, there are plenty of player props across the board.
- We found two that hold plenty of value in Garrett Whitlock and Kyle Bradish strikeout totals.
- heck out Tanner McGrath's full breakdown and picks below.
Every team suits up for today’s Super Tuesday slate. Therefore, there’s plenty of value to be found in the player prop market.
I’m backing two young starters from the AL East today, hoping both can capitalize on their potential with solid betting odds.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+135)
|Red Sox @ Braves|
|First Pitch||7:20 p.m. ET|
I’m not totally convinced of Garrett Whitlock’s starter potential. But I know he has the talent.
Through three starts, Whitlock has shut down the Rays, Blue Jays and Angels — three of the most talented lineups in baseball. While he struggled to record strikeouts against the disciplined Jays, he punched out seven Rays over four innings and nine Angels over five frames.
Lumping in his previous relief innings, how does 12.05 K/9 and a 1.81 xERA sound? Whitlock has recorded 0.7 fWAR through his seven appearances and 21 2/3 innings so far, and his Baseball Savant page is showing this isn’t just luck.
Whitlock picks up most of his strikeouts on his slider, which is holding batters to a .141 xwOBA and a ridiculous 57.1% whiff rate. While it doesn’t show much horizontal run, it drops out the bottom, moving 4.2 inches more vertically than the average MLB slider.
The Braves are rather average against sliders, posting a -0.6 wSL so far this season. Atlanta has also been league average in terms of wRC++ (102) against righties.
But the Braves definitely swing and miss. They’ve posted a top-10 strikeout rate against RHPs since the beginning of last season (24.7%), and they will be susceptible to Whitlock’s stuff today.
This is a similar matchup for Whitlock to both the Angels and Rays, and we could be in for fireworks at Truist Park.
Striking out the side to start the game.
Just Garrett Whitlock things. pic.twitter.com/nneCVyUt9j
— Red Sox (@RedSox) May 4, 2022
Our Action Labs Projections have him at 5.8 strikeouts today, giving us a whole lot of value as long as you’re catching +135 or better.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+135)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Kyle Bradish Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Orioles @ Cardinals|
|First Pitch||7:45 p.m. ET|
There’s not a lot to love about Kyle Bradish this season. He’s made two mediocre starts and failed to reach four strikeouts in both of them. His ERA sits above 5.00, and his xFIP sits at 4.99.
Meanwhile, the Cardinal offense has been super disciplined over the first month. The Redbirds are striking out at a bottom-five rate both over the full season and the last two weeks — those numbers are sitting just under 20%.
But I can’t ignore the projections today. The market is pricing Bradish for 3.5 Ks at -110, but nobody seems to agree that’s correct.
- Action Labs Projections: 4.8 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.0 Ks
- Betting Pros’ Player Props Projections: 4.4 Ks
It’s worth digging a bit deeper into the young Bradish, who is still a rookie.
His breaking stuff can really move. His slider moves more than six inches vertically and almost nine inches horizontally compared to the average slider. His curveball also drops out the bottom.
As a result, Bradish posted over 10 K/9 at every level in his minor league ascension. And his second start showed improved results with some big-time plate discipline metrics.
When Kyle Bradish takes the mound tonight, keep an eye on his Slider (20.9 SwStr%) and Curve (33.3% CSW). They were better in his 2nd start, and, with a potentially poor fastball, he'll need them to be consistent weapons if we're going to consider him in fantasy leagues. pic.twitter.com/eZJhpizokp
— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) May 10, 2022
I think there’s a ton of upside with Bradish moving forward. He has the potential to be a big-time punchout pitcher, and the projections seem to think that starts tonight.
With a 17.4% edge over the current DraftKings line, this is our top Action Labs Player Prop Tool pick of the day.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (-110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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