MLB Player Props Odds & Picks: Tuesday’s 2 Bets for Frankie Montas & Michael Kopech
Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Frankie Montas #47 of the Oakland Athletics
- Our player props analyst has two best bets for Tuesday's MLB slate.
- He's identified two strikeout totals for Michael Kopech and Frankie Montas with incredible value by using the Action Labs Props Tool.
- Check out Tanner McGrath's picks and analysis below.
Super Tuesday brings us 15 more games as all 30 teams suit up to take the field.
It also brings plenty of value to the player prop market. I've found two strikeout props that our Action Labs projections love today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
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Michael Kopech Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)
|White Sox vs. Rockies||White Sox -115|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
Projections adore Michael Kopech today. Our Action Labs projections have him at a whopping 7.3 strikeouts, giving us a 41.8% edge over the current line being offered at DraftKings. Plus, FanGraphs' SaberSim projections mark him for about 4.7 strikeouts.
Yet, we get to play this line at decent plus-money odds. But why are there such juicy odds?
Kopech hasn't been a strikeout machine this season. He's managed to get over this number in just eight of his 17 starts this year and ranks below the 32nd percentile in both CSW Rate and Swinging-Strike Rate.
But there are a few reasons to be bullish on Kopech outside of the projections.
Kopech's fastball still plays. He's above average in velocity (around 95 mph to 96 mph) and ranks in the 97th percentile of pitchers in Fastball Spin Rate. His Whiff Rate has dropped slightly on the pitch, but it's still above 25%.
It's even rising slightly more than last season.
And moving more horizontally than last season.
On top of that, Kopech strikes out more batters when he hits the road. He's gotten unlucky on the road, but his xFIP drops from 5.38 at home to 4.66 on the road thanks to his K/9 jumping from 7.46 at home to 8.69 on the road.
As a result, Kopech has managed to sneak over 4.5 strikeouts in four of his eight road starts this season and finished at four in two more.
It's also worth mentioning that Kopech is striking out over 27% of left-handed hitters this year, which equals out to about 10.75 K/9. There are three lefties in the Rockies' lineup whom Kopech should match up well with, and that could mean the difference between four and five strikeouts in this start.
I'll take a shot with this line at moderate plus-money.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+130)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Frankie Montas Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)
|Astros vs. Athletics||Astros -165|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
All Frankie Montas does is go over this number. He's done so in 13 of his 18 starts this season (72%, -260 implied odds to over) and in 38 of his 50 starts since the beginning of 2021 (76%, -317 implied odds to over).
Plus, he feels extremely comfortable at his home in Oakland Coliseum.
- Frankie Montas 2021 at home: 2.57 ERA, 3.06 FIP, .265 wOBA, 9.90 K/9
- Frankie Montas 2021 on road: 4.85 ERA, 3.74 FIP, .308 wOBA, 8.31 K/9
As a result, Montas has cashed Over 4.5 Ks in 10 of 12 starts this season. And since his seventh start of 2021 on May 8th, Montas has recorded at least five strikeouts in 22 of 25 home starts.
Houston is a scary lineup. They're often the most disciplined in the league, and I avoid fading them as much as possible in the strikeout market.
But the Astros have never scared Montas. In five starts against the Astros since 2021 began, Montas reached at least five strikeouts in all five. He's managed 34 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings during those starts with a 28% CSW Rate.
Maybe it's because Houston is a righty-heavy lineup, and Montas feasts on righties. Montas has struck out 59 of the 193 RHBs he's faced this season, good for a Strikeout Rate above 30%. His Walk Rate is also 5% lower against righties than lefties.
There are seven righties in Houston's lineup, but Houston's most dangerous hitter is the lefty Yordan Alvarez. However, Montas surprises us once again, as he's struck out Alvarez eight times in just 15 PAs while allowing only two hits.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Montas for 6.3 strikeouts today, giving us over a 20% edge on the current line offered at UniBet.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-122)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10