Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mariners-Angels, 2 Totals
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Guillermo Heredia (center) celebrates with Dee Gordon
- Professionals are again betting on the under in Reds-Indians with the wind blowing in from center.
- The total in Cardinals-White Sox has moved a half-run despite pretty even action on both the over and under.
- Sharp bettors are fading trendy public play in Mariners-Angels
The killer was an epically bad beat in Cleveland. Wiseguys got down on the Under 8.5 and the Tribe took a 4-0 lead into the top of the ninth, only to surrender seven runs to the Reds (all with two outs), losing 7-4. Instead of a 2-2 day with slight plus money profit, sharps finished 1-3, losing nearly 2 units. No time to lament heartbreaking losses. As always, wiseguys are onto the next.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:07 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:15 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians Under 9
7:10 p.m. ET
Sharps are looking to avenge their brutal bad beat last night by getting even tonight. Currently 70% of bets are taking the Over, but it accounts for only 53% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe Over money.
Despite the heavy over betting, the juice has moved from 9 Under -110 to 9 Under -116, indicating the books have liability on the under with the next move likely down to 8.5.
Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Terry Francona and Roberto Perez. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago White Sox Over 9.5
8:10 p.m. ET
The Cardinals crushed the White Sox 14-2 last night, with the Over 9.5 cashing without a sweat. Sharps are eyeing another high-scoring game tonight. The Over is getting only 48% of bets but it accounts for 67% of dollars, indicating heavy smart money on the Over. Meanwhile, the total has risen from 9 to 9.5. In a vacuum, a total shouldn’t move a full run if bets are split down the middle.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-112)
10:07 p.m. ET
The Angels came up huge for the sharps last night. They closed with 46% of bets, 75% of dollars, had sharp reverse line movement -145 to -161 and beat the Mariners 9-3.
The Gambler’s Fallacy says Seattle is a much better team and bound to bounce back tonight. But sharps are fading the trendy dog.
The Angels are getting only 38% of bets, but the line has essentially remained frozen (-113 to -112). This indicates liability on the Angels, with the books reluctant to drop the line toward Seattle and give sharp Halos backers a better number.
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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