White Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Preview, Prediction: Dylan Cease Starts in Lopsided Matchup (Sunday, July 11)

White Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Preview, Prediction: Dylan Cease Starts in Lopsided Matchup (Sunday, July 11) article feature image
Credit:

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease.

  • The White Sox and Orioles play their final game before the All-Star break at Camden Yards.
  • To no one's surprise, Baltimore has been one of the worst teams in baseball and is a heavy underdog against Chicago.
  • Matt Trebby explains below why he isn't anticipating any surprises from Baltimore on Sunday.

White Sox vs. Orioles Odds

White Sox Odds -170
Orioles Odds +145
Over/Under 11
Time Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet

The Chicago White Sox look to cap a sensational first half of the season on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles.

Chicago has been without outfielders Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert for the entire season so far, and it has had to deal with small injuries to most of its core throughout the first half. Still, the White Sox find themselves comfortably on top of a weak American League Central.

The Orioles, meanwhile, have surprised no one and been terrible. They’re poised for another season that will earn them a pick toward the top of the MLB draft.

Let’s break down Sunday’s matchup and where we can find betting value.

White Sox Poised to Thrive

Since the start of June, Dylan Cease has either been very good or very bad. In seven starts, he has allowed six earned runs three times and two or fewer in the other four.

In Cease’s last outing against the Twins, he gave up six runs over 5 1/3 innings in defeat.

Cease has a 4.14 ERA that is mostly backed by a 3.93 xFIP. His strikeouts per nine innings are up this season, and his walks and home runs allowed per nine are down. He’s looking much more under control this season, a huge boost to the White Sox’s rotation.

The positive for Cease during his last seven starts is a lack of walks. He issued 26 free passes over 51 1/3 innings in his first 10 starts of the season, and that number is down to just 11 over his last 35 2/3 in that previously mentioned seven-start span.

In his last six starts, Cease has struck out seven or more five times. His stuff clearly plays well at the major-league level.

Chicago’s lineup is obviously not at 100% right now, but it has done a great job of maneuvering its way around injuries to stay hot atop the AL Central.

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Watkins Eyes Another Strong Outing

Spenser Watkins’ first career major-league start could not have gone much better on Tuesday. He allowed just one run over five strong innings against the Blue Jays, allowing three walks and three hits while striking out just two.

The right-hander had a strong 3.58 ERA in seven appearances (six starts) for Triple-A Norfolk. Given where the Orioles are as a major-league team right now, it makes sense to give him a shot in the show.

In his major-league debut, Watkins threw his fastball or cutter a whopping 82.5% of the time. His fastball averaged just 89.6 mph, so don’t expect him to overwhelm the White Sox’s lineup.

Unlike Chicago, the Orioles do not have a great hitting matchup on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore entered Saturday ranked 28th in MLB with a .664 OPS against right-handed pitching. Conversely, they thrive against lefties, ranking fourth against southpaws with a .772 OPS this season.

White Sox-Orioles Pick

With advantages across the board, I’m going to be on the White Sox run line. Cease is hit or miss, and this is a great opportunity for him, and the Chicago lineup, to enter the All-Star break with a flourish.

Don’t overthink this. Fade the Orioles.

Pick: White Sox -1.5 (-115 PointsBet)

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