Tuesday MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Yankees vs. Blue Jays: Bet Toronto Comfortably (June 15)
Kathryn Riley/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the New York Yankees to Buffalo, N.Y., for Tuesday's MLB game.
- New York has struggled of late, going 3-7 in their last 10 games and look to rebound against Toronto.
- Mike Vitanza breaks down the contest below and explains why he likes the Blue Jays to shine.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-130|
|Over/Under||9.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||7:07 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Tuesday afternoon via PointsBet.|
The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays square off Tuesday in the first game of a three-game series in Buffalo, N.Y.
The Yankees, who enter this matchup with a 33-32 record, sit 8 1/2 games out of first place, while the Blue Jays are just a game better in the standings at 33-30 on the season. New York has struggled tremendously of late, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, Toronto has been just slightly better with a 5-5 record over that same span.
After a day off, can the Yankees jump back into the win column on the road or will the Blue Jays take advantage of having ace Hyun Jin Ryu on the mound and grab the series lead against their division rivals?
Montgomery Hoping to Give Yankees Solid Start
Jordan Montgomery will take the hill for the Yankees in what will amount to his 13th start of the season for the Bronx Bombers. Montgomery has been solid this year, compiling a 3.34 FIP over 65 1/3 innings. He’s also striking batters out at an 8.95 K/9 clip, slightly above his 8.65 K/9 average.
Montgomery has also been markedly better over his last five starts. While his 4.02 ERA in that duration doesn’t appear to be anything special at first glance, his 2.22 FIP in those games is 1.8 runs lower than his ERA, which is a strong indication that he’s been very unlucky during that time.
One of those five starts was also against this same Blue Jays team. In that contest, Montgomery allowed three runs on five hits over just 4 2/3 innings pitched.
That level of success against a left-handed pitcher is not an anomaly for Toronto. In fact, it has been one of the better teams in baseball against southpaws thus far, collectively hitting to a .330 wOBA (seventh best in MLB).
If Montgomery finds trouble, Yankees manager Aaron Boone will be forced to turn the ball over to a bullpen that has been strong overall (3.72 FIP), but has struggled recently, surrendering 12 earned runs over their past four games.
Ryu Continuing Consistent Ways on Mound
Ryu will get the ball for the home team in the series opener. To the surprise of very few, Ryu has been his typical, reliable self so far this season. Over 70 innings pitched, he’s amassed a 3.57 FIP, 8.0 K/9 and allowed just 1.16 HR/9 thus far.
While solid, those numbers are up from a season ago when Ryu finished with a 3.01 FIP, 9.7 K/9 and allowed just 0.81 HR/9. A deeper dive showed that he’s allowing more hard contact and a higher barrel percentage than we’ve seen in seasons past.
Specifically, he’s permitting a 38.9% Hard Hit % this season versus just 29.2% last season, while his Barrel percentage is up to 8.2% this year versus just 3.2% in 2020.
While the negative regression on those metrics is troubling, the Yankees have not been a team that has excelled against left-handed pitching so far. Overall on the season, New York has compiled a .311 wOBA against southpaws, good for just 18th in all of baseball.
Yankees-Blue Jays Pick
While Montgomery’s advanced metrics suggest he’s actually been better than his current statistics, the fact is he’s been susceptible to decent run production from opposing offenses, particularly teams that excel against left-handed pitching.
In this game, he’ll take on a Blue Jays team that not only hits lefties well, but also had success against him just a few weeks ago.
Though Ryu is likely due for some negative regression in the near future, I don’t see that coming here against the Yankees.
Not only has this New York offense struggled against left-handed pitching, they’ll also likely be without Aaron Judge (back spasms), who has been the only constant source of offensive production for the team this season.
In this series opener, I’m comfortably betting Toronto. The current money line sits around -120, but I’m fine playing it up to -130 odds.
Pick: Blue Jays (-120 — up to -130)
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