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Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Hiccups for Taillon, Means on Wednesday

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Hiccups for Taillon, Means on Wednesday article feature image
  • The New York Yankees are a big favorite over the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night (6:35 p.m. ET, YES Network).
  • Baltimore will send its best in John Means to the mound, but can he contain a potent Yankees lineup? And can Jameson Taillon start strong after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery?
  • Get our Yankees vs. Orioles betting pick and preview below.

Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Odds

Orioles Odds +170
Yankees Odds -200
Over/Under 9 (-115/-105)
Time 6:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Wednesday morning and via PointsBet.

After starting the season 1-2, the New York Yankees have now taken the first two games of this series against the Baltimore Orioles after a strong 7-2 victory last night.

The Yankees were paced by strong three hits, a home run and four RBIs from Aaron Judge and a homer from Jay Bruce.

The Orioles, meanwhile, managed seven hits, but saw their only run production come in the 9th inning via a Rio Ruiz two-run home run.

Can the Yankees bats remain strong against John Means, who blanked the Boston Red Sox in his season debut?

Baltimore Orioles: How Good Is John Means?

John Means will get the ball for the Orioles after an impressive opening day start where he pitched five scoreless innings against the Red Sox. In that matchup, he allowed just one hit while striking out five.

The Yankees will present a tougher challenge. Means struggled in 2020, pitching to a 5.60 FIP while allowing a sky-high 2.47 home runs per nine innings. The Yankees, meanwhile, hit the fifth-most home runs in MLB last season (94). Their overall numbers against left-handed pitching were around league-average, however. Collectively, they hit to a .313 wOBA and .175 ISO against southpaws.

If Means runs into trouble tonight, there isn’t really a comfortable option for Orioles manager Brandon Hyde to call upon. The bullpen has struggled mightily in this series, allowing seven runs over 8 1/3 innings in the first two games.

New York Yankees: Expect Some Hiccups for Taillon vs. Underrated Offense

Jameson Taillon will make his Yankees debut on Wednesday after skipping the first turn through the rotation last week. Taillon missed the entire 2020 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but has looked good this spring, pitching to a 1.08 ERA over 8 1/3 innings while striking out 14 batters.

In 2019 — his last full season — he pitched to a respectable 3.80 FIP and was successful in limiting the long ball, allowing just 0.96 home runs per nine innings. He did, however, see a marked increase in his Hard Hit % between 2018 and 2019, jumping from 31.8% to 39.8% year-over-year. With such a lengthy absence from the game, it’s very possible we see the higher end of that range to begin the 2021 season.

The Orioles, meanwhile, were relatively successful against right-handed pitching in 2020, collectively hitting to a .325 wOBA in such situations. While they’ve struggled through the first two games of this series, Taillon is a better matchup for this offense than ace Gerritt Cole or lefty Jordan Montgomery.

Orioles-Yankees Pick

While Means looked good in his season debut last week, his propensity for the long ball, coupled with the struggles the Orioles bullpen has experienced over the past two nights, are a recipe for disaster against a powerful Yankees offense in Yankee Stadium.

Though Taillon looked good in spring training, he’ll be pitching in his first MLB game since 2019 and making his home debut in New York. While this Orioles team will not find itself atop any offensive categories this year, their .325 wOBA against righties in 2020 was the 12th-best mark in all of baseball. Despite the lack of brand names in the lineup, this won’t be a walk in the park for Taillon.

I’m betting over 9 runs in this one — there are some 9.5s and 9s out there, including one 9 at PointsBet. I’m comfortable at 9.5 as well, but wouldn’t play it beyond that.

Pick: Over 9 (-115)

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