Zerillo’s Yankees vs. Red Sox Betting Guide: Will New York Batter Chacin in Boston?

Betting Odds: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

Probable starters: Domingo German (17-3, 4.01 ERA) vs. Jhoulys Chacin (3-10, 5.79 ERA)

• Yankees odds:  -131
• Red Sox odds: +111
• Over/Under:  10.5
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network

Odds above as of 2:00 p.m. ET and via PointsBet

David Price was originally slated to start this game for the Red Sox (75-65), but he is still dealing with wrist discomfort and now seems unlikely to pitch for the remainder of the 2019 season after previously receiving a cortisone injection.

Price gets to duck the Yankees (92-49) and their offense, which has completely owned him with a .308/.364/.530 triple-slash line (.894 OPS).

Without both Price and Chris Sale in their rotation, Boston seems unlikely to leapfrog two teams amongst Cleveland, Oakland and Tampa Bay to capture a Wild Card spot.

Meanwhile, the Yankees continue to jockey with the Astros and the Dodgers for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Can the Red Sox gain ground in defense of their 2018 championship, or will the Yankees continue to extend their lead in the AL East?

The Starters

I did a full breakdown of Domingo German on Aug. 25 before he faced Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball, but let me highlight the main points:

• German is due to regress in a number of areas, but in totality, he has arrived at an ERA that fits his overall profile.
• His changeup and curveball are excellent secondary offerings.
• Batters swing at the curveball 38% of the time outside of the zone, and whiff on 70% of those swings:

He has significantly better control over the strike zone than Chacin, but does get hit pretty hard when batters make contact.

However, Chacin's hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 8% amongst all pitchers, and he was due for regression after out-pitching his xFIP by more than a full run in 2018:

Chacin's groundball rate has also dropped by nearly 12% in two seasons, and a decreased groundball rate has caused his home run rate to spike:

Whenever the price has been reasonable to go against him, Chacin is a pitcher who I have looked to fade in 2019.

The Bullpens

Bullpen evaluation is tricky in September, with clubs having an extended bench to turn to as they make a push for the playoffs.

The Red Sox currently have 17 active pitchers in their bullpen, while the Yankees have  12.

Boston's bullpen has been better this year than you would think. For the season, the Yankees bullpen ranks ninth in FIP, 5th in xFIP and eighth in strikeout-minus-walk rate, while the Red Sox bullpen ranks third, eighth and seventh, respectively.

Marcus Walden and Brandon Workman have each pitched four times over the past week, so Alex Cora might look to avoid using them on Friday.

The Yankees had Thursday off, so they should come in a bit more rested, but Luis Cessa will likely be unavailable after pitching three innings on Wednesday.

Trends to Know

A consistent $100 bettor would be 13-6 (68.4%, +7.1 units) going against Jhoulys Chacin in every start this season, and 11-4-4 (73.3%, +5.9 units) going against Chacin in the first five innings (F5).

The wind is currently blowing in 13 mph from right field at Fenway Park. The under is 12-12 with double-digit winds blowing in from right field in Boston, dating back to 2005.

The over is 38-30 (55.9%, +6.63 units) in games at Fenway Park this year, and 43-21-2 (67.2%, +20.79 units) when the Yankees are guaranteed nine innings of at-bats as the away team.

Favorite Bet

I projected the Yankees as -115 favorites in this game, so I don't see value on either full game side, and I set the over/under at 10.7, so I also don't see any value in the listed total of 10.5 either. 

That being said, I made the Yankees -133 favorites in the first five innings and played them in the first half only, with minimal line value at -130.

I don't consider this to be an edge play based upon line value, but it's certainly a fair number in a spot to fade Chacin against one of baseball's best lineups.

The Pick: New York Yankees (-130) First Five Innings Moneyline