Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin Prelim (July 10)

Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin Prelim (July 10) article feature image
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Louis Grasse/PxImages. Pictured: UFC fighter Max Griffin.

  • UFC legend Carlos Condit looks to continue his two-fight winning streak on the UFC 264 prelim card against Max Griffin.
  • Griffin has finished his last two opponents, earning a Performance of the Night in March with his knockout of Song Kenan.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down this intriguing welterweight matchup, delivering his best bet below.

Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin Odds

Condit Odds
+166
Griffin Odds
-205
Over/Under
2.5 (-186 / +144)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.

Two UFC veterans in the welterweight division will meet in the Octagon Saturday night when Carlos Condit and Max Griffin face off at UFC 264.

Both fighters are riding two-fight win streaks into this matchup but got there in different ways. Condit picked up back-to-back decision wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown over the past nine months. Griffin had two exciting finishes in his past two fights against Song Kenan and Ramiz Brahimaj.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.

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Tale of the Tape

Condit Griffin
Record 32-13 17-8
Avg. Fight Time 12:03 12:03
Height 6’2″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 171 lbs. 170.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 76″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 4/26/84 11/29/85
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.63 4.14
SS Accuracy 39% 48%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.49 3.94
SS Defense 56% 56%
Take Down Avg 0.62 1.70
TD Acc 54% 51%
TD Def 39% 66%
Submission Avg 1.0 0.5

Griffin seemingly has a clear path to victory on the mat, but his ability to execute and pursue an optimal game plan is a big question mark.

Condit offers zero resistance to takedowns (39% takedown defense), and Griffin (1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, 51% accuracy) has the wrestling skills to capitalize on that weakness. Still, he doesn’t always fight to that style.

His striking (+0.20 strike differential to +1.14 for Condit) is much improved, and he can keep up with Condit in terms of output if the fight stays standing. But Condit is the far more technical striker, and both men are seemingly durable.

Condit vs. Griffin Pick

I see value in this fight to go the distance (projected -233, listed -172) regardless of the game plan that Griffin chooses to pursue.

Furthermore, I also see value on both fighters to win by decision (projected +135 for Griffin and +265 for Condit) relative to their listed odds (+135 and +280, respectively), but not enough to make a play on either side.

I definitely prefer the distance prop given the fight IQ concerns on Griffin, and I expect both competitors to make it to the finish line.

The Pick: Fight Goes the Distance (-172)

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