Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 319 (Saturday, August 16)

Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 319 (Saturday, August 16) article feature image
Credit:

Dione Barbosa Credit: Jason Silva-Imagn Images

Check out the Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa Odds

Silva Odds-218
Barbosa Odds+180
Over/Under2.5 (-270/+18o)
LocationUnited Center, Chicago
Bout Time6:45 p.m. ET
TV/StreamingESPN+
UFC 319 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code.

Here's my Silva vs. Barbosa pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

SilvaBarbosa
Record18-58-3
Avg. Fight Time8:049:42
Height5'5"5'6"
Weight (pounds)125 lbs.125 lbs.
Reach (inches)67"66"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Date of birth12/2/19935/8/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min3.042.35
SS Accuracy38%50%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.142.73
SS Defense47%67%
Take Down Avg2.791.93
TD Acc50%33%
TD Def042%
Submission Avg1.92.3

Silva vs. Barbosa Pick, Prediction

Dione Barbosa holds a regional win over Karine Silva from 2019, and these two Brazilians are approximately the same age and size, with comparable skill sets, in a fight expected to reach a decision (listed -225).

Moreover, Silva is a popular favorite this week — with fans backing her to win the matchup more than 70% of the time; however, my betting model – which aims to balance public perception with betting odds – projects actionable value on the underdog, Barbosa, down to +155.

Moreover, I show value on the fight to reach a decision (projected 77%, -340), and on either fighter to win by decision (Barbosa projected +236, listed +280; Silva projected +110, listed +125).

I typically back the dog in close fights that are expected to reach a decision – and lean into scorecard variance – but in this matchup I would either bet the underdog on the moneyline or take the favorite by decision; I make a finish (by submission) a slightly larger portion of Barbosa's win condition, than I do for Silva.

Projection: Silva (58.7%)

Sean's Pick: Dione Barbosa (+180, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +155)

About the Author
Billy Ward has been passionate about fantasy sports since the 1990s and pursued a career as an MMA fighter, turning pro at 21 before returning to college to finish his degree. He has notable achievements in fantasy sports and DFS, including qualifying for the DraftKings UFC DFS world championship and five-figure wins in NFL DFS and best ball. Now a member of the Action Network’s predictive analytics team, Billy specializes in NFL, MLB, and combat sports, managing DFS player projection models and contributing to podcasts and live betting shows.

Follow Billy Ward @Psychoward586 on Twitter/X.

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