Check out the Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa Odds
| Silva Odds | -218 |
| Barbosa Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-270/+18o) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 319 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Here's my Silva vs. Barbosa pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Silva | Barbosa | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 8-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:04 | 9:42 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 66" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/2/1993 | 5/8/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.04 | 2.35 |
| SS Accuracy | 38% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.14 | 2.73 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 67% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.79 | 1.93 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 33% |
| TD Def | 0 | 42% |
| Submission Avg | 1.9 | 2.3 |
Silva vs. Barbosa Pick, Prediction
Dione Barbosa holds a regional win over Karine Silva from 2019, and these two Brazilians are approximately the same age and size, with comparable skill sets, in a fight expected to reach a decision (listed -225).
Moreover, Silva is a popular favorite this week — with fans backing her to win the matchup more than 70% of the time; however, my betting model – which aims to balance public perception with betting odds – projects actionable value on the underdog, Barbosa, down to +155.
Moreover, I show value on the fight to reach a decision (projected 77%, -340), and on either fighter to win by decision (Barbosa projected +236, listed +280; Silva projected +110, listed +125).
I typically back the dog in close fights that are expected to reach a decision – and lean into scorecard variance – but in this matchup I would either bet the underdog on the moneyline or take the favorite by decision; I make a finish (by submission) a slightly larger portion of Barbosa's win condition, than I do for Silva.
Projection: Silva (58.7%)
Sean's Pick: Dione Barbosa (+180, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +155)
