Check out the Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The chain-smoking Fighting Nerd, Carlos Prates, quickly became a fan favorite in the UFC, winning four straight performance bonuses while knocking out his first four opponents. He stumbled in his last fight, an impromptu matchup with Ian Garry, but now gets a chance to right the ship.
As the odds imply, Geoff Neal is a step down from Garry, but has been a tough out for rising fighters throughout his UFC Career. Here's my Neal vs. Prates pick and prediction.
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates Odds
| Neal Odds | +205 |
| Prates Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120/-154) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| Bout Time | 11:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 319 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Neal | Prates | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-6 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:14 | 9:49 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 78" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/28/1990 | 8/17/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.05 | 3.60 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.44 | 4.79 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 48% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 100% |
| TD Def | 87% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Geoff Neal vs. Carlos Prates UFC 319 Betting Preview
As is the case with the entirety of the Fighting Nerds team, Carlos Prates is a finisher. Coming into his fight with Ian Garry, just three of his 27 pro bouts had involved the judges, and the most recent one was five fights prior to his Octagon debut.
Prates wears his style on his chest — quite literally, with the words "Muay Thai" tattooed across his torso. He's a classic embodiment of that martial art, from his upright stance to his toe-tapping front leg.
As with many Thai boxers, Prates doesn't throw a ton of volume. While he's not necessarily waiting for counters, he's a fairly patient striker who picks his moments, getting reads from the outside before exploding in with one or two strikes.
He doesn't need to land many shots to be effective, though. That's due to the extreme power he brings from the rear side of his southpaw stance, with most of his career finishes either coming from straight left hands or left kicks/knees.
His length, reach, and flexibility allow him to interchange kicks and knees, forcing opponents to choose between defending their body from the knee strike or guarding their head from the high kick. Either of those options brings their hands off the centerline — opening up the left cross.
It's a simple but brutally effective system that works on all but the most technical and disciplined fighters like Garry, who used similar strikes from the right side to occupy Prates' left hand, while also threatening takedowns to keep Prates from settling into a rhythm.
Prior to the Garry fight, Prates had defended 100% of the takedowns he faced in the UFC, and Garry landed just four on 19 attempts. However, it was enough to open up the striking, until Prates rallied late to win the fourth and fifth rounds.
That he came back late is a testament to his cardio, and gives me no concern over his ability to push the pace in a three-round fight against Geoff Neal. Neal is a powerful striker in his own right, with five knockouts in eight UFC wins.
A fellow southpaw, Neal is more of a boxer/brawler. He pressures forward with lengthy combinations, occasionally mixing in head kicks at the end of his combos. With his shorter and stockier build, he'll need to close the distance against Prates, getting inside of the Brazilian's best weapons and doing damage from the inside.
That's easier said than done, especially with Prates' superior speed. Neal has historically struggled in similar matchups, with all four of his UFC losses coming to taller/longer fighters, plus a pre-UFC loss to Kevin Holland that fits that bill.
While he's grappled offensively a bit more in recent fights, it's hard to see him finding much success doing so against Prates. Prates has defended takedowns from tougher grapplers consistently, and Neal would be better served by letting his hands fly anytime he's within grappling range anyway.
Neal vs. Prates Pick, Prediction
As you can probably tell from the rest of the breakdown, I'm fairly optimistic Prates gets back to his winning ways. Neal had lost consecutive fights before his win against 40-year-old Rafael dos Anjos, who injured his knee 90 seconds into the contest.
This is pretty clearly an attempt by the UFC matchmakers to rebuild some momentum for Prates after he accepted a short-notice matchup against a top-five welterweight in his last fight, with Neal stepping firmly into a gatekeeper role.
I also expect Prates to get back to his finishing ways. While Neal has yet to be knocked out in the UFC, Prates is a far more dangerous striker than his past opponents.
With the under 2.5 Rounds prop lined much more favorably than Prates' moneyline, I'm looking to target the under rather than take Prates to win. You could certainly roll those ideas together and take Prates by knockout at +110 odds, but I prefer to cover more bases by taking the under.
A Neal finish isn't especially likely, but he throws hard and Prates has a negative striking differential, so it wouldn't be entirely shocking if Neal found the button first — and the price isn't that much different.
Billy's Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds -122 (FanDuel)
