Check out the Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
An intriguing matchup in the middleweight division takes place at UFC 319 and it’s one many didn’t see coming. Michael “Venom” Page continues his detour to middleweight as he faces divisional mainstay Jared Cannonier.
Page claims the marquee fights are easier to be had at middleweight, but that also means his opponents will be more dangerous.
Oddsmakers are too confident this fight will last the full 15 minutes – the value is on this bout ending inside the distance. Here's my Cannonier vs. Page pick and prediction.
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page Odds
| Neal Odds | +164 |
| Prates Odds | -198 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-280/+210) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| Bout Time | 10:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 319 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Cannonier | Page | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-8 | 23-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:51 | 9:53 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 79" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1984 | 4/7/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.60 | 2.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 62% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.49 | 1.78 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.46 | 0.30 |
| TD Acc | 44% | 20% |
| TD Def | 64% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page Betting Preview
Jared Cannonier will enter the octagon for the 20th time on Saturday, but he has never faced a fighter quite like MVP. Cannonier has fought an impressive list of former champions and title challengers, but solving the puzzle that Page presents has proven to be a very difficult task for his opposition.
MMA math isn’t the most reliable source for handicapping fights, but it’s absolutely worth noting the approach of MVP’s former opponents. Ian Machado Garry is coming off a remarkable performance in his victory over one of the best strikers in the welterweight division in Carlos Prates. Garry largely controlled the stand-up in that fight versus someone considered an elite striker, yet quickly realized he was outmatched against Page, opting to pursue a grappling approach for the majority of their matchup.
MVP’s first test at middleweight came against undefeated kickboxer Shara Magomedov. Page outstruck the highly regarded striker in each of the first two rounds. Magomedov landed just 16 total significant strikes over the first ten minutes of the bout. In fact, just 1 of 28 significant strikes aimed at the head of Page was credited with connecting during that time.
All of this is relevant when trying to measure just how difficult it must be for fighters to adjust to Page’s karate-forward style.
You may be thinking all of this information points to this fight turning into another tentative kickboxing match, but Cannonier is a student of the game. He knows the only way to win this fight is by closing the distance. Yes, that may be easier said than done, but taking that approach is exactly why the opening for big moments will be available for each fighter.
Cannonier is 41 years of age, but his power remains. He is a threat to end the night for his opponent at any point in the fight with his one-punch knockout power. If he is able to close the distance consistently, he undoubtedly will have the advantage inside of boxing range.
Cannonier is clearly the more physical man here, and while he may not be able to drag MVP to the mat, clinch work and power shots when breaking away from the clinch could be the key to landing a clean fight-ending power shot.
Cannonier’s conditioning for an older fighter is exceptional but his waning durability is standard at this stage of his career. He has been knocked down or out in three straight outings. He has no choice but to press forward and put himself into harm’s way.
Page is a master at his craft, with the ability to unleash kicks, knees or a stinging right hand in the blink of an eye.
Cannonier vs. Page Pick, Prediction
There is always the possibility of Page’s footwork winning the night in the large octagon, but that outcome is already priced in at this current line. Cannonier has the ability to swarm MVP, land power shots in clinch and potentially hurt the naturally smaller fighter.
As long as Cannonier attempts to press forward, his durability is going to be tested at various points. I am willing to bet one of these men finds the finish at a higher clip than the implied 36% chance.
John's Pick: Fight Ends Inside The Distance +175 (DraftKings)
