Check out the Khamzat Chimaev vs. Dricus Du Plessis prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Dricus Du Plessis Odds
| Chimaev Odds | +210 |
| Du Plessis Odds | -258 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115/-115) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 319 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the United Center in Chicago, Illinois, for the first time since UFC 328 in June 2019, for a 13-fight card, featuring a highly anticipated middleweight title bout between current champion Dricus du Plessis and undefeated No. 3 contender Khamzat Chimaev.
Both fighters are unbeaten in the promotion; Du Plessis owns a 9-0 record, including his UFC debut in October 2020, registering a pair of decision wins over Sean Strickland, and a submission of all-time great Israel Adesanya in his three title bouts.
Chimaev debuted in the UFC as a welterweight in July 2020 and has an 8-0 promotional record, including five one-round finishes; still, Chimaev has yet to compete in a main event or five-round fight, and the added championship rounds on Saturday give this already appealing matchup a key cardio dynamic, considering the champion is better-tested in extended fights.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 319 Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET (9:15 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV on Sunday morning.
Here's my Chimaev vs. Du Plessis pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Chimaev | Du Plessis | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-0-0 | 23-2-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 6:05 | 13:45 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 5/1/1994 | 1/14/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.36 | 6.12 |
| SS Accuracy | 58% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.25 | 4.90 |
| SS Defense | 41% | 54% |
| Take Down Avg | 4.31 | 2.55 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 50% |
| TD Def | 100% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 2.8 | 0.7 |
The cardiodynamic between these fighters is seemingly the most oft-discussed aspect of this matchup; most analysts expect Dricus DuPlessis to take over in the later rounds if Khamzat is unable to finish him early, not only due to the differential in championship round experience, but also because Chimaev slowed in the third round of his decision wins against both Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman (losing round three to Usman).
In an interview this week, Arman Tsarukyan —who is training with Chimaev— mentioned that Khamzat has explicitly hired a performance coach for this camp to ensure that he doesn't overtrain.
Chimaev has spent the vast majority of his MMA career training at All-Star MMA in Sweden, but moved his camp to The Garage in California before his first title bout. He's reportedly been training for 50-minute fights, sparring ten five-minute rounds, in preparation for this matchup, while also making sure to rest his body more frequently than he has in the past, to optimize for fight night.
And if Chimaev doesn't slow down —or at least, if he's able to maintain his style for 20 minutes instead of 10— it isn't easy to imagine anyone in this sport ever defeating him.
Khamzat's distance striking is underrated; he carries significant power, is highly durable, and is content to engage in high-volume wars with opponents.
Still, Du Plessis has proven to be the more efficient distance striker (+0.5 to -1.0 strike differential per minute) in a larger sample size against better competition. DDP has spent 82% of his fight time at striking range, compared to 45% for Chimaev.
Both men proactively wrestle, but Chimaev is more reliable to offensively grapple (6.9 vs. 2.1 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance). Chimaev has controlled 99% of grappling/clinch time, compared to 75% for DDP, and he has essentially shot a takedown in the first 20 seconds of every fight in his MMA career —save for a quick KO win over Gerald Meerschaert. Ikram Aliskerov (whom Khamzat also brutally KOed) is the only fighter to avoid getting taken down by Chimaev completely.
Moreover, Khamzat has shown improved composure and positional dominance as he has progressed in his MMA career, patiently controlling Robert Whitaker and progressing to a face crank in a title eliminator last October.
If he's able to take DDP down early without working too hard on top, he could potentially save his gas tank for the championship rounds, even if he's unable to finish the fight early.
DDP is a better offensive grappler than he is defensively, and I would expect Chimaev to have a speed and strength advantage —both on the feet and in the scrambles— from the opening bell. Those advantages should wane as the fight extends, however, and as a result.
At the same time, it's challenging to imagine Du Plessis winning minutes early in this fight, and you can almost certainly find a better live price on the champion after the opening round.
Du Plessis has shown the ability to fight through fatigue and damage —while thriving amid chaos— and given prior optics, he could potentially weaponize his cardio advantage if this fight extends.
Still, I tend to believe we'll see a career-best Chimaev on Saturday, given the camp switch and added attention to his physical conditioning. And while Du Plessis excels at resetting between explosions, I think it's likely that both men tire out on Saturday, if Khamzat tries to set his typically exhausting grappling pace.
Chimaev vs. Du Plessis Pick, Prediction
I project Khamzat Chimaev as a -230 favorite (69.7% implied) in Saturday's main event for UFC 319, and I don't see value on either side of the moneyline at current odds.
However, I do project this bout to end inside the distance more than 85% of the time (-634 implied odds) and show actionable value on the Unders (Under 1.5, +145 and 2.5, -115), or the fight to end inside the distance (listed -350).
Moreover, I project an actionable edge on Chimaev to win by submission (projected +108, listed +150) or inside the distance (projected -168, listed -130), or you could combine those opinions into an SGP ladder, with Chimaev and the Under 1.5 Rounds (+195), Under 2.5 Rounds (+120), and/or 3.5 Rounds (-115). Alternatively, FanDuel offers a prop for Chimaev to win in Rounds 1, 2, or 3 at even money.
For optimal odds to express this opinion, consider betting Chimaev to win in Round 1 (+270) or Round 2 (+500) or to win by submission in Round 1 (+430) or Round 2 (+850).
Whether you bet on Khamzat pre-fight or not, target Du Plessis live after the first or second round of the fight.
But if you do prefer the champion, consider DDP in an SGP with the Over 2.5 (+340), and/or sprinkle his odds to win in Round 4 (+2200) or Round 5 (+2900).
Sean's Picks
- SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 1.5 Rounds (+195 at BallyBet)
- SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 2.5 Rounds (+120 at Caesars)
- SGP: Khamzat Chimaev & Under 3.5 Rounds (-114 at ESPNBet)
- Khamzat Chimaev wins by Round 1 Submission (+430 at FanDuel)
