Check out the Tim Elliot vs. Kai Asakura prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Thirteen-year UFC veteran Tim Elliott returns to the octagon after a near two-year layoff to face former RIZIN bantamweight champion Kai Asakura.
In a true clash of styles, Elliott will try to mimic a similar gameplan to that of flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, prioritizing grappling en route to grounding the explosive knockout artist Asakura.
I have my doubts that the 38 year-old Elliott can execute such a gameplan for 15 minutes on Saturday night. Here's my Elliot vs. Asakura pick and prediction.
Tim Elliot vs. Kai Asakura Odds
| Neal Odds | +250 |
| Prates Odds | -310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-130/+100) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| Bout Time | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 319 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Elliot | Asakura | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-13-1 | 21-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:15 | 7:05 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 66" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 12/24/1986 | 10/31/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.39 | 2.40 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.66 | 4.52 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 38% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.73 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 47% | 0 |
| TD Def | 59% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0 |
Tim Elliot vs. Kai Asakura Betting Preview
Tim Elliott wants to put a pace on his opponent and do so in an awkward manner.
The former title challenger will look to pressure Asakura and make him uncomfortable from the opening bell. It’s a gameplan that is easy to project for a high-level scrambler such as Elliott, but it’s one that won’t be so simple to execute.
Elliot hasn't scored multiple takedowns in either of his last two fights, but he will undoubtedly need to drag Asakura to the mat on several occasions if he plans to survive. Asakura possesses excellent timing with various counter-attacks, so any entry by Elliott is going to present an opening for the ultra-fast Asakura.
In addition to having to put himself in harm's way, Elliott will also need to avoid prolonged periods of standing at striking distance.
Not having been in the Octagon for 20 months, we can’t assume Elliott will remain as quick and as durable as he was at his peak. Furthermore, if you look at the matchmaking Elliott has enjoyed over the last few years, many of his opponents were fellow grapplers by nature. Several of the fighters Elliott has faced over the last five years have obliged him in the exact type of fight he thrives in.
While Elliott had mixed results in the win/loss column, he was rarely out of his element. Asakura presents an entirely different challenge.
Asakura didn’t capture the title in his UFC debut against the division’s most well-rounded fighter Pantoja, but it was clear he has the ability to change the direction of a fight in a split-second. Asakura landed a flying knee on Pantoja’s first takedown attempt that may have ended the night for a lesser opponent.
Asakura’s scrambling ability and balance was also on full display. Pantoja ultimately got the job done that night, but that shouldn’t dim the outlook on Asakura’s bright future.
Elliot vs. Asakura Pick, Prediction
Asakura knows exactly what to expect heading into this fight, and I believe he will be a little more patient in his second octagon appearance.
Elliott is facing an uphill battle in controlling the Japanese star. If Elliott is a step slower than his last fight in the UFC, I expect Asakura to take a measured approach in handing the veteran his first knockout loss of his UFC career. An opening will present itself at some point, and Asakura will capitalize.
John's Pick: Asakura by KO/TKO +180 (FanDuel)
