Here's my Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Meerschaert
Oleksiejczuk
Record
37-19-0
20-9-0 (1 NC)
Avg. Fight Time
8:47
6:14
Height
6′ 1"
6′ 0"
Weight (pounds)
185 lbs.
185 lbs.
Reach (inches)
77"
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Southpaw
Date of birth
Dec 18, 1987
Feb 22, 1995
Sig Strikes Per Min
3.05
5.27
SS Accuracy
45%
51%
SS Absorbed Per Min
3.43
4.51
SS Defense
53%
59%
Take Down Avg
1.86
1.05
TD Acc
31%
43%
TD Def
42%
48%
Submission Avg
1.4
0.0
Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick, Prediction
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous pressure boxer — with seven of eight UFC wins by Round 1 knockout — but he has a notable grappling deficiency (five of six UFC losses by submission) which he has attempted to fix by moving full-time to team Fighting Nerds — alongside former opponent and main event backup fighter Caio Bollalho, and the continually improving Rodolfo Vieira.
Gerald Meerschaert III ("GM3) holds the UFC middleweight record for submissions (11) — and is tied with Demian Maia for third most in promotional history.
However, nine of those 11 submissions have come in the second or third round — GM3 is typically losing minutes early before taking advantage of a tiring opponent, flipping the momentum, and closing the show.
To be clear, I think there is value on GM3 to win by submission (projected +290) or inside the distance (projected +259), and his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) are worth consideration in any mathup, in addition to a live bet after Round 1.
However, I think he's going to have to go through hell to make it that far against Oleksiejczuk — the younger and faster man who will close distance aggressively, cut off the cage, and rip combinations to the head and body to back GM3 against the fence.
Oleksiejczuk – a former Light Heavyweight — looks in much better shape physically after spending a whole camp in Brazil, and I'd expect a career-best performance from him in this fight (and career-best cardio if Meerschaert survives and the fight extends) after deliberately working to improve his anti-grappling.
Given the binary nature of this matchup, I like the Under 1.5 Rounds (-125), or would parlay the fight to end inside the distance (projected -510, listed -350).
Additionally, I show value on Michal by KO/TKO (projected -119, listed +100), or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245), or you can include his moneyline in an SGP with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+135 at BetRivers).
Projection: Oleksiejczuk (68%)
Sean's Picks
Under 1.5 Rounds (-127, 0.25u) at BetRivers (bet to -150)
SGP: Michal Oleksiejczuk and Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +115)
Michael Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245, 0.1u) at BallyBet
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
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