Check out the Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds
| Meerschaert Odds | +125 |
| Oleksiejczuk Odds | -150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-225/+16o) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 319 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. |
Here's my Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Meerschaert | Oleksiejczuk |
|---|
| Record | 37-19-0 | 20-9-0 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:47 | 6:14 |
| Height | 6′ 1" | 6′ 0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 77" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | Dec 18, 1987 | Feb 22, 1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.05 | 5.27 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 51% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.43 | 4.51 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.86 | 1.05 |
| TD Acc | 31% | 43% |
| TD Def | 42% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.0 |
Meerschaert vs. Oleksiejczuk Pick, Prediction
Michal Oleksiejczuk is a dangerous pressure boxer — with seven of eight UFC wins by Round 1 knockout — but he has a notable grappling deficiency (five of six UFC losses by submission) which he has attempted to fix by moving full-time to team Fighting Nerds — alongside former opponent and main event backup fighter Caio Bollalho, and the continually improving Rodolfo Vieira.
Gerald Meerschaert III ("GM3) holds the UFC middleweight record for submissions (11) — and is tied with Demian Maia for third most in promotional history.
However, nine of those 11 submissions have come in the second or third round — GM3 is typically losing minutes early before taking advantage of a tiring opponent, flipping the momentum, and closing the show.
To be clear, I think there is value on GM3 to win by submission (projected +290) or inside the distance (projected +259), and his odds to win in Round 2 (+1100) or Round 3 (+1600) are worth consideration in any mathup, in addition to a live bet after Round 1.
However, I think he's going to have to go through hell to make it that far against Oleksiejczuk — the younger and faster man who will close distance aggressively, cut off the cage, and rip combinations to the head and body to back GM3 against the fence.
Oleksiejczuk – a former Light Heavyweight — looks in much better shape physically after spending a whole camp in Brazil, and I'd expect a career-best performance from him in this fight (and career-best cardio if Meerschaert survives and the fight extends) after deliberately working to improve his anti-grappling.
Given the binary nature of this matchup, I like the Under 1.5 Rounds (-125), or would parlay the fight to end inside the distance (projected -510, listed -350).
Additionally, I show value on Michal by KO/TKO (projected -119, listed +100), or by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245), or you can include his moneyline in an SGP with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+135 at BetRivers).
Projection: Oleksiejczuk (68%)
Sean's Picks
- Under 1.5 Rounds (-127, 0.25u) at BetRivers (bet to -150)
- SGP: Michal Oleksiejczuk and Under 1.5 Rounds (+140, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to +115)
- Michael Oleksiejczuk wins by Round 1 KO/TKO (+245, 0.1u) at BallyBet
About the Author
Sean graduated from the University of Miami and Hofstra University Law School, later passing the New York State Bar Exam in 2014. He shifted from a legal career to sports data and betting, joining the Action Network in 2019 after working as a baseball video scout and in financial regulatory compliance. As a senior writer and betting analyst, Sean provides MLB and MMA projections using proprietary models and contributes to various digital content and podcasts, becoming a leading expert in betting for baseball, MMA, and horse racing.
Follow Sean Zerillo @SeanZerillo on Twitter/X.
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