The UFC is spending the weekend in China, with a pair of events in Shanghai. The first is the finale of the Road to the UFC tournament, which features two official UFC bouts at the top of the card along side the championship rounds of the tournament. That one airs on UFC Fight Pass at 6:00 a.m. ET.
Then on Saturday morning, it's a full-fledged fight night event, headlined by rising Chinese star Mingyang Zhang taking on Johnny Walker.
We've got a 3:00 a.m. ET start time for that one, airing at ESPN+. I'd suggest getting your picks in early.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 108 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Shanghai Predictions & Luck Ratings
Mingyang Zhang (-380) vs. Johnny Walker (+300)
This main event is one of the more blatant attempts by the UFC to pander to a local crowd, with Zhang being gifted an extremely favorable matchup.
"The Mountain Tiger" is 3-0 with three first-round knockouts since joining the UFC — four counting his Road to the UFC bout. Walker is a former ranked light heavyweight who's been knocked out out in each of his last two bouts, with his chin seemingly long gone at this stage in his career.
While I'd be fine laying the heavy juice on Zhang — and I suspect the line only moves throughout the week — Zhang early and/or by KO is probably the way to go here. Get ready to jump on those early when lines become available.
Verdict: Zhang Undervalued
Sumudaerji (-162) vs. Kevin Borjas (+136)
"The Tibetan Eagle" Sumudaerji needed a split decision over Mitch Raposo to avoid going 0-3 in his last three fights, which would've potentially ended his UFC run. Sumudaerji won the striking, but as has often been the case for him, gave up repeated takedowns.
That makes the matchup with Borjas a better one for him, as the Peruvian is yet to even attempt a takedown in the UFC. However, it's not a given that Sumudaerji wins the striking in this matchup. Both fighters carry big power, but also have been knocked down in the UFC.
With Borjas having some hypothetical grappling upside, it's hard to see his odds as worse than a coin flip.
Grab the line now, as he's already gotten some steam in the markets, moving from as high as +145 at open. The +136 at DraftKings is the best available option currently.
Verdict: Borjas Undervalued
Lone'er Kavanagh (-192) vs. Charles Johnson (+160)
Lone'er Kavanagh was probably my favorite prospect from last year's Contender Series, where I also noted that his mixed Irish and Chinese heritage makes him a dream fighter for the UFC from a promotional standpoint.
That's coming to fruition here, as he fights in China for the second time since being signed to the promotion.
He's won both of his first two UFC bouts, picking up fairly clear decision victories over Felipe dos Santos and Jose Ochoa. Now he gets a step up against the veteran Charles Johnson, who has gone 6-5 for the UFC and is coming off a loss to Ramazan Temirov.
Kavanagh is the better fighter in perhaps every area except cardio and experience, and has his grappling to fall back on if things don't go well on the feet. For that reason, I'm happy to lay his moneyline price, which at -192 on DraftKings is a bit of an outlier.
However, it's been dropping since opening at around -250, so the best bet is probably to wait.
Verdict: KavanaghUndervalued
Shi Ming (TBD) vs. Bruna Brasil (TBD) (Road to the UFC Event)
The main event of Friday morning's Road to the UFC event features last season's breakout star, Shi Ming, taking on veteran UFC fighter Bruna Brasil.
Ming was a +300 or so underdog in the finale of last season's event, and dropped the first two rounds on the judges' scorecards before pulling off a surprise head kick knockout. "Doctor" hasn't fought in the nine months since — possibly because she was busy in her day job as a medical doctor.
Brasil is 2-3 in the UFC and punched her ticket to the promotion with her own head kick KO on the Contender Series. Public pick data suggests she'll come in as an underdog here, but I don't think she should be.
While Brasil is nothing special, she's moved camps to the Fighting Nerds, which has worked out for plenty of fighters recently. Plus, she's fought much tougher competition than Ming in her career.
While the head kick KO that got Ming here wasn't quite "lucky," it's also not especially repeatable, so I'm looking to bet Brasil at plus-money.
Verdict: Bet Brasil at Plus Money
