Check out the Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico prediction for UFC 319 on Saturday, August 16, with my betting preview and breakdown.
A decade ago, Aaron Pico was one of the most sought-after free agents in MMA. He made waves signing with Bellator following his outstanding amateur wrestling career, and also signed major endorsement deals before ever setting foot in the cage.
Now, with Bellator gone and the PFL on life support, Pico is finally coming to the UFC. Still just 28, he has plenty of time to make a run at the title — but first, he has to get through the undefeated Lerone Murphy.
Here's my Murphy vs. Pico pick and prediction.
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico Odds
| Murphy Odds | +145 |
| Pico Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-215/+165) |
| Location | United Center, Chicago, Illinois |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ PPV |
| UFC 319 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 319 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Murphy | Pico | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 16-0-1 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:57 | |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/22/1991 | 9/23/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.53 | |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.48 | |
| SS Defense | 61% | |
| Take Down Avg | 1.45 | |
| TD Acc | 54% | |
| TD Def | 52% | |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 |
Lerone Murphy vs. Aaron Pico UFC 319 Betting Preview
Aaron Pico might have been the first MMA super prospect. He was the top-rated high school wrestler in America in 2014, and won the U17 world championships that same year. On top of that, he won national titles in Golden Gloves boxing and Pankration, an amateur version of MMA with a similar ruleset.
By and large, he's lived up to that potential. His MMA career got off to a rough start, with a submission loss in his debut and a 4-3 record through seven fights. Since then, he's undefeated across his next ten fights, save for a freak shoulder injury against Jeremy Kennedy in 2022.
While he's extremely well-rounded, wrestling is clearly the A-game for Pico. He likes to apply pressure early, working his opponents back to the fence with forward pressure. Marching forward with teeps and low kicks, he almost resembles Royce Gracie in the early days of the UFC in his attempts to close the distance without taking too many risks.
From there, few have been able to stop his takedowns. His best attack is a single leg, which has the advantage of not requiring Pico to get in on both hips, and he often shoots for a double before switching to the near leg if his opponent stuffs the initial shot.
Where he differs from many of the sports wrestling converts is his offense on the ground. Pico is more than comfortable taking chances to pass guard into more dominant striking positions, where he sits up and rains heavy shots from the top.
The downside of that is he gives his opponents opportunities to scramble back to their feet. While that's not ideal in a vacuum, Pico's tremendous conditioning allows him to simply repeat the process, relying on his opponent to slow down before he does.
Pico also tends to open up more on the feet once he's drained his opponents with wrestling. Which is a wise strategy — not that Pico couldn't win a striking match with both fighters fresh, but it certainly raises his odds.
Whether he's able to tire Lerone Murphy out will be a critical dynamic in this fight. Murphy is coming into this fight on short notice, but typically has excellent cardio. Two of his last three fights were five-round fight, but Murphy won the championship rounds in both fights.
He's also elite at getting off his back when taken down. Murphy is neither that adept nor that determined to stop initial takedowns, with his 52% rate well below the UFC and divisional average.
However, he's also allowed less than a minute of ground control time per takedown, while occasionally pulling off sweeps and reversals to find himself on top. We haven't seen Murphy face a grappler as physical or credentialed as Pico, but I suspect he'll still find some success working his way back standing.
That could turn this fight into a battle of wills, with Pico repeatedly hunting takedowns and Murphy working his way back to his feet. What happens in between will be interesting, as Murphy should be the better striker, but it's reasonably close.
Murphy vs. Pico Pick, Prediction
My initial read on this fight was that it's a solid spot for a point spread bet on the underdog Murphy.
Given his ability to get back to his feet, it's reasonably likely that he's able to steal at least one round from Pico, and he's durable enough to likely make it to a decision, with the odds of this one going 15 minutes a solid -185.
However, DraftKings was on to that line of thinking, heavily juicing Murphy's +3.5 line (relative to his moneyline) at -165.
Due to that, I'll be taking a bit more of a risk, and going with Murphy straight up, with the best line being the +155 at ESPNBet. Murphy has proven it against top-five featherweights in the world while Pico has been fighting lesser competition in Bellator, and we've seen some struggles from big name fighters in their UFC debut.
It will just be a half-unit bet, though, as I'm interested in taking Pico live if Murphy wins the first round. We could see him tire as the fight goes on since he took it on short notice, and Pico tends to have that effect on people.
Billy's Pick: Lerone Murphy +155 (ESPNBet) | Pico Live
