On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa, for a 12-fight card featuring an important showdown in the bantamweight division between former fyweight champion and No. 5 bantamweight contender Deiveson Figueiredo, and former interim title challenger and no. 4 ranked Cory Sandhangen.
Check out my Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo predictions, picks and odds for UFC Des Moines on Saturday, May 3.
Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo Odds, Prediction
| Sandhagen Odds | -500 |
| Figueiredo Odds | +380 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 Rounds (-210/+160) |
| Location | Wells Fargo Arena | Des Moines, Iowa |
| Bout Time | 12:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Des Moines odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Des Moines with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Sandhagen is 10-4 in the UFC's bantamweight division, entering off a main event loss against Umar Nurmagomedov last August. He's 4-4 in UFC main events, with a split win over Marlon Vera, and a controversial split loss against T.J. Dillashaw.
Figueiredo is 3-1 since moving to Bantamweight, dropping a five-round decision to Petr Yan last November. He went 4-2-1 in main events as a flyweight.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for UFC Fight Night: Des Moines on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these bantamweights, who should make their cage walk at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET (9:45 p.m. PT) on ESPN.
Here's my Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sandhagen | Figueiredo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-5 | 24-4-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:23 | 12:50 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 4/20/1992 | 12/18/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.02 | 2.91 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 54% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.46 | 3.55 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 49% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.1 | 1.62 |
| TD Acc | 32% | 34% |
| TD Def | 63% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.3 | 1.4 |
Cory Sandhagen is both the taller and longer fighter (6” taller, 2” reach advantage), as a natural bantamweight who uses his length effectively from striking distance.
Sandhagen is a cerebral striker and has proven the ability to maintain a high-output across a 25-minute fight (landed 100+ strikes on three occasions), attempting more than 14 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 6.1 for Figueiredo.
Although he has incredibly flashy knockouts on his record – specifically his flying knee against Frankie Edgar – Sandhagen doesn’t necessarily carry one-shot knockout power in his hands; still, he offers excellent cardio, durability, and puts a ton of attritional damage on opponents, which makes his fighting style more effective in five rounds as opposed to three.
Moreover, Sandhagen has shown improved offensive wrestling in recent fights, attempting 41 takedowns in his past five matchups, and he showed improved defensive wrestling in his loss to Umar (denied eight of 13 attempts, spent 5:11 in control positions across 25 minutes).
Still, Deiveson Figueiredo is undoubtedly the superior submission grappler of the pair, and if Sandhagen forces the grappling, Figueiredo could capitalize by snatching a guillotine or reversing position, getting to Sandhagen’s back, and sinking in a rear-naked choke.
While Sandhagen’s overall grappling has improved substantially relative to a few years ago (when he was quickly submitted by Aljamin Sterling), he hasn’t faced many submission threats in his recent appearances; Figueiredo – who has grappled more at bantamweight than he did at Flyweight – is undoubtedly capable of finishing him on the mat.
Still, Figueiredo is a lower-volume power puncher whose knockout power hasn’t translated after moving up in weight; he’s more technical than he gets credited for, but seemingly doesn’t have the pop to put Sandhagen away, or the output to keep up with a more voluminous striker.
As a result, Figueiredo likely needs a finish in order to pull the upset, and scoring a submission over the long-necked Sandhagen – as opposed to a knockout – seems to be the likelier path to victory.
However, Figueiredo never had great cardio at Flyweight, and he has shown a tendency to slow down later in his fights at Bantamweight; he could potentially gas if Sandhagen pushes a pace for the duration.
Therefore, Figgy likely needs to finish Sandhagen early in order to win the bout;any longer iteration of this matchup seems to benefit the favorite.
Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Prediction
I projected Cory Sandhagen as a -451 favorite (81.8% implied odds) in this matchup, and I don’t see value with respect to either side of the money line.
I project slight value in the fight goes to decision prop (projected -215, listed -210) depending upon the book, but not enough to place a wager.
Much of that potential value is tied to Sandhagen to win by decision (projected 58.8%, -143 implied) however, my projection still falls short of the average market price, and I don’t project value on any of the winning method props.
Given the cardio dynamic between these combatants, Sandhagen could have a path to an attritional finish in Round 4 (+1900) or Round 5 (+2400); still, Figueiredo has proven himself incredibly durable throughout his career; and he could survive to a one-sided decision loss.
I’m likely most interested in betting Sandhagen on the point spread (-5.5 points, -190) up to -200, as I can see him losing a round or getting finished early – but he should pull away on the scorecards the longer the fight goes; similar to the Yan vs. Figueiredo matchup.
Alternatively, you could bet on Sandhagen to win in Round 4, Round 5, or by decision (-210 at FanDuel) and bet on his live moneyline anytime after round one.
Sean's Pick: Cory Sandhagen (-5.5 Points, -190 at DraftKings) | Cory Sandhagen Live Anytime after Round 1
