Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape Odds
| Royval Odds | +245 |
| KApe Odds | -305 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-140/+110) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 12:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 112 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 112 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Brandon Royval vs. Manel Kape prediction for UFC Fight Night 112 on Saturday, December 13, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a 13-fight card, featuring a potential title eliminator in the flyweight division between former title challenger and No. 2 contender Brandon Royval and No. 6-ranked contender Manel Kape.
Royval owns a 7-4 promotional record, but he has primarily faced the best fighters at 125 pounds, including five combined matchups against the three most recent champions — Joshua Van, Alexandre Pantoja, and Brandon Moreno — in addition to a win over Tatsuro Taira, who stated his case for a title shot by finishing Moreno at UFC 323 this past weekend.
Kape owns a 6-3 promotional record, but he hasn't been to the championship rounds since 2015, whereas Royval has fought to decision in four consecutive bouts, including three 25-minute contests.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Vegas 112 Main Event on Saturday and use those factors to bet on these flyweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 12:15 a.m. ET (9:15 p.m. PT) on Sunday morning.
Here's my Royval vs. Kape pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Royval | Kape | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-8 | 21-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:18 | 12:00 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'5" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 68" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/16/1992 | 11/14/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.55 | 5.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.23 | 4.05 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| TD Acc | 75% | 30% |
| TD Def | 45% | 81% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 0.3 |
Brandon Royval is the taller and lankier athlete (4" height difference), while Manel Kape has the more compact and powerful physique.
The two were previously scheduled to fight in March and again in June, but each pulled out of one bout due to injury. In fact, Kape has as many cancelled bouts (9) as completed fights since joining the promotion from RIZIN in 2019, although just four of those nine cancellations were his fault (one PED suspension, a weight miss, and a pair of injury withdrawals).
Royval has been the more active fighter and faced a more difficult strength-of-schedule, but three of his seven UFC wins have come by split decision, and the power differential could prove crucial for Kape on Saturday.
Kape has increased his pace in recent performances, averaging 6.6 strikes landed per minute at distance across his past two appearances, compared to 5.0 (and a differential of 0.7 per minute) across his UFC run. Still, Royval maintains a higher pace, landing 8.8 distance strikes per minute while staying ahead of his opposition by a margin of 2.1 distance strikes per minute, in more difficult matchups.
Royval is an attritional-based striker with average to below average power for the division; he tends to touch opponents up with a lot of straight punches, which can lead to split scorecards even while outpacing his opponents (out-landed Taira 124-42, Moreno 145-112, and Rogerio Bontorin 40-28 in his split wins).
Media and fan scorecards thought he deserved each of those decisions. Royval garnered 78% of fan scorecards and unanimous media support against Taira, 60% of fan scorecards and 14 of 19 media cards against Moreno, and 51% of fans and 12 of 15 media cards against Bontorin.
The point is that the volume on paper doesn't score as well with the judges as you might expect, since his combination punching is often answered by a massive counter from his opponents. Royval walks forward and doesn't defend himself well against head strikes (43%).
That porous striking defense — and a tendency to eat huge counters — is a concerning problem against a fighter as dangerous as Kape, who carries elite power and durability for a Flyweight, and has shown continued improvement during his UFC tenure.
Kape previously had a tendency to get lulled into low-volume kickboxing matchups, including in his second UFC bout, a split decision loss to Matheus Nicolau, where he was caught on the outside, trying to snipe his opponents in a calculated manner (all 22 media members and 81% of fans thought Kape should have won that decision against Nicolau).
Still, he's seemingly fixed his lack of urgency and drastically increased his early-fight aggression in his recent outings, while still finding calculated opportunities to hurt his opponents.
Moreover, while Kape had previously ceded takedowns and control time in losses to Nicolau and Mohammed Mokaev, he has shown improved wrestling defense and jiu-jitsu getups in more recent bouts, denying all 11 takedown attempts in his past two fights, and never permitting more than 2:42 of control time in any UFC bout.
Royval is the better grappler in this matchup, and he is crafty enough to catch Kape with a submission in a scramble. Still, he's not a particularly proactive offensive wrestler (0.5 attempts per five minutes at distance), and Kape's physicality edge should prove the difference in both wrestling exchanges and clinch positions (career 30% vs. 16% control rate in grappling exchanges).
In fact, I could see Kape mixing in offensive takedowns of his own to keep Royval honest; he has done so previously against pacier opponents, including Pantoja and Felipe dos Santos — and Royval doesn't focus on his own takedown defense (81% for Kape, 45% for Royval) since he's often content to hunt for submissions from bottom.
As a result, consider target Kape Over 0.5 takedowns (+140) in the prop market. Since I began writing this preview, Royval's Under 0.5 moved from -180 to -300 overnight, I would pass on his under at current prices.
Royval does have more championship round experience, and I could see him staging a comeback in the back half of this fight.
Still, Kape's power and physicality should prove the difference over the first 15 minutes of this matchup. If not carried into the later rounds, I give him a significantly higher chance of finishing this fight on the feet.
While Royval has better cardio and is more willing to pump out volume, Kape will save his energy to unleash powerful counters or to blitz forward with potentially lethal combinations. I'd expect him to hurt Royval early and close the show, or get out to a big enough lead that Royval will need to find a finish late to see his hand raised.
Royval vs. Kape Pick, Prediction
I projected Manel Kape as a near 80% favorite (projected -388, 79.5% implied odds) for Saturday's main event. I would bet his moneyline at -345 (a 2% edge over my projected line), or I would include Kape as a parlay piece at -375 (a 0.5% edge).
I project a slight edge on the overs or the fight to reach a decision, setting that prop at odds of +132, compared to listed odds as high as +140, and I project correlated value on Kape to win by decision (projected +223, listed +240).
However, Kape's knockout prop (projected +137, listed +140) is also just outside of actionable range, and I'm not inclined to choose a winning method of victory for this fight; Royval is extremely hittable, but is also highly durable, and if he manages to weather that early damage, he could rally to a decision or late round finish.
Still, Royval is a highly popular public underdog selection this week — fans and bettors are backing him to win at a near 45% clip compared to implied market odds closer to 30% — which is why my model reblanced Kape as a potentially undervalued favorite.
Sean's Pick: Manel Kape (-278 at DraftKings) | Manel Kape Over 0.5 Takedowns (+140 at DraftKings)
