Melquizael Costa vs. Morgan Charriere Odds
| Costa Odds | +240 |
| Charriere Odds | -298 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 112 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 112 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my best bet and projections for the UFC Vegas 112 fight between Melquizael Costa and Morgan Charriere.
Melquizael Costa has not tasted defeat in over two years as he enters Saturday with the chance to accomplish the rare feat of winning four fights in a calendar year. His opponent, Frenchman Morgan Charriere, has alternated wins and losses since joining the UFC. However, he undoubtedly has the tools to challenge the vast majority of featherweights on the roster today. Let’s break this fight down and pick a winner.
Here's my Costa vs. Charriere pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Costa | Charriere | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-7 | 21-11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:55 | 9:57 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/14/1996 | 10/26/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.44 | 4.08 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.09 | 4.54 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 53% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.96 | 2.11 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 46% |
| TD Def | 58% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 1.2 | 0.3 |
Costa has won four consecutive fights, winning five of his last six bouts with his only loss coming at the hands of rising star Steve Garcia. Costa’s victories this year have been highly impressive, beating Julian Erosa, Christian Rodgriguez and Andre Fili. All three of those fighters presented a different challenge stylistically, and Costa displayed his ability to adapt.
Costa has shown the determination to get off to a fast start, and that will pay major dividends against Charriere, who has extended periods of low output. Costa unleashed an abundance of front kicks versus Andre Fili back in February that seemed to disrupt the timing of Fili and hinder his output. Costa outstruck Fili 26-7 at distance in the first round, before Fili decided to shoot for a takedown and put himself in position to be submitted.
Costa may not possess the wrestling ability to drag his opponent to the mat at will, and it is doubtful he will be able to do so against the more athletic Charriere. His scrambling ability is second to none, though, and his slick submission attack can win him the fight in an instance. However, it's worth noting Charriere has not been submitted in his professional career.
Charriere is the more dynamic striker of the two, but he still carries a negative striking differential, absorbing 4.5 significant strikes per minute while landing just 4.1 on his opponent. Again, part of this is a simple lack of volume. His split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal is a great example of a close fight that didn’t go in his direction, because Mariscal attempted 199 total strikes to Charriere’s 139.
Charriere is explosive enough to enter the pocket from distance or level change and take Costa down, but even if that is the case here, that doesn’t necessarily mean he is outworking Costa. Julian Erosa was able to take Costa down in each of the first two rounds in their recent bout, but Costa won both of those rounds on the scorecards.
Costa vs. Charriere Pick, Prediction
Costa’s creativity and willingness to hunt for offense no matter the situation is the reason I am picking him to win here. I feel Charriere still has untapped potential, and maybe this is the fight he puts in all together, but Costa has the momentum on his side and his well-rounded game should allow him to stay on the attack no matter how the fight plays out.
I’ll ride with the short favorite in this near pick em’ spot and I’d be willing to play the Costa moneyline up to -130
John's Pick: Melquizael Costa – 110 (Draftkings)
