UFC Vegas 112 Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets for Saturday, December 13

Action Network Staff

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Updated:

Dec 13, 2025, 10:36 AM EST

Updated:

Dec 13, 2025, 10:36 AM EST

UFC Vegas 112 Predictions, Picks, Projections, Best Bets for Saturday, December 13 article feature image

3 min read

Credit:

Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images. Pictured: Cesar Almeida

Read our UFC Vegas 112 predictions for Saturday, December 13. The event will be live from the UFC Apex on December 13, with a 7:00 p.m. ET start time.

Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.

You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.

UFC Vegas 112 Moneyline Projections

UFC Vegas 112 Prop Projections

Steven Asplund vs. Sean Sharaf

Billy Ward, Staff Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET

This is a fight where I believe the market is both overvaluing the favorite and undervaluing the underdog.

I'll start with the favored Asplund. "Concrete" picked up a huge win on the Contender Series this season, needing just 16 seconds to finish Anthony Guarascio. Impressive as that was, it didn't teach us much. Guarascio is a former middleweight who crushed a few cans at heavyweight, and has already been finished again following the loss to Asplund. Where we did learn a lot about Asplund was in his second-round submission loss to Denzel Freeman.

Freeman absorbed some damage from Asplund early, but was able to take him down easily and thoroughly dominated Asplund on the ground.

Not only did Asplund look lost once the fight hit the mat, but he seemingly had nothing left in the tank by the start of the second round. While Asplund has won fights that have extended, none of those required him to grapple, and he's clearly more comfortable striking.

The last time we saw Sharaf, he also had a cardio dump in the second round, though his was more forgivable. He made his UFC debut on less than a week's notice against Junior Tafa, nearly finished Tafa on the ground in Round 1 before Tafa was saved by the bell, and then had nothing left in the second frame. The combination of UFC debut jitters, a near finish, and the short notice at least potentially explains the issue.

More importantly, he's a capable and willing grappler, and Asplund might be one takedown away from losing whenever he enters the Octagon. I'll take the more well-rounded Xtreme Couture product at +190 odds any day.

The Pick: Sean Sharaf +190 (FanDuel)

Cesar Almeida vs. Cezary Oleksiejczuk

Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 11:45 p.m. ET

Cesar Almeida is one of several public underdogs I have identified on Saturday's card; bettors and fans are backing him to win this bout at roughly a 41% clip, while the betting market has him at closer to 35% implied.

Moreover, he's 12 years older than his opponent, Cezary Oleksiejcuk, the younger brother of 17-fight UFC veteran Michal Oleksiejzuk, who has a wealth of MMA experience for a 25-year-old, with 19 professional and 31 amateur bouts.

All of that MMA experience should help in a fight against a former pro kickboxer, Almeida, who should be the more technical striker, despite ceding two inches of height and an inch of reach.

That said, Oleksiejczuk is the faster, stronger, and more dynamic athlete, and Almeida has permitted 14 takedowns and 20 minutes of control time through his first 56 minutes inside the UFC octagon. Cezary, who is more well-rounded than his brother, should find the path of least resistance on the mat after spending his entire camp training in Brazil at Team Fighting Nerds.

When there is at least a 12-year age gap between MMA opponents, the younger fighter has won at a near 70% clip, compared to average odds of around 60% implied (-150), more than 12% above expectation.

I projected Oleksiejczuk as a near-250 favorite (71.5% implied); play his moneyline to -228, at a two percent edge compared to my projected number, or include him as a parlay piece up to -245 (a 0.5% edge).

The Pick: Cezary Oleksiejczuk (-200 at BetMGM)

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