Giga Chikadze vs. Kevin Vallejos Odds
| Chikadze Odds | +245 |
| Vallejos Odds | -305 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 112 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 112 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my preview and best bets for the UFC Vegas 112 Co-Main Event between Giga Chikadze and Kevin Vallejos on Saturday.
Kevin Vallejos debuted on the Contender Series at just 21 years old, dropping a close decision to Jean Silva in a loss that's aged incredibly well. Not as well as Vallejos himself, who then went on to win two regional fights, his return trip to the Contender Series, and his first two official UFC appearances. Now he gets a step up against solid veteran Giga Chikadze, a former top-ten featherweight who has lost two in a row since a string of injuries sidelined him for an extended period.
Here's my Chikadze and Vallejos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Chikadze | Vallejos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-5 | 16-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:24 | 8:53 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 8/25/1998 | 12/8/2001 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.82 | 6.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.48 | 5.23 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.19 | 0.84 |
| TD Acc | 33% | 33% |
| TD Def | 65% | 83% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0 |
We'll start this breakdown by taking a look at Chikadze, who looked like a potential title challenger when he started his UFC career 7-0, but has gone 1-3 in his last four while dealing with some extensive injuries.
At his peak, the former Glory kickboxer was one of the most dangerous and exciting strikers in the UFC. He has three performance of the night bonuses plus a fight of the night against Calvin Kattar, with six knockdowns landed across his 11 UFC outings. He's also never been knocked out in 20 pro MMA fights, with just one officially listed KO loss in kickboxing. Of course, at 37, the question is whether he's still the same fighter, and whether or not his chin and durability have failed him.
Fortunately, his most recent appearance came in April, against the power-punching David Onama. Onama is stylistically very different from Vallejos, but being able to withstand his strikes is a good sign for Chikadze's chances against Vallejos.
The long and rangy Chikadze controlled the distance in the early part of the fight against Onama, an impressive feat given their similar stature. Against the 5'7" Vallejos, that ability will be key. Chikadze comes from a Karate background and has excellent kicks, while Vallejos is primarily a boxer who does his best work from close range.
Chikadze did that well initially, but things started to go downhill once Onama mixed in takedowns. That's been a constant problem for Chikadze throughout his career, unsurprisingly, since he was exclusively a striker for much of his combat sports lifetime. Vallejos mixed in takedowns for the first time in his UFC career in his last fight, though it's safe to say that he's a lesser grappler than Onama.
In both the striking and grappling phases of this fight, the key for Vallejos will be his ability to move forward effectively. He'll need to get inside of kicking range in order to land strikes on Chikadze, and it's also much easier to pick up takedowns while moving forward.
Chikadze is adept at managing angles, keeping his opponents at a distance by circling without backing straight up. My concern for him at this stage in his career is that his footwork isn't quite as quick as it used to be, making it harder for him to control the range. On top of that, the constant movement required to keep opponents at range takes much more energy than simply planting your feet in the center — or even moving forward — does.
The good news for Vallejos, and one of the reasons he's a considerable favorite, is that he does nothing but move forward. Even before mixing in takedown attempts against Danny Silva, Vallejos has been on the front foot for the majority of his Octagon time, forcing his opponent to the outer black line.
With a classic boxing high guard, he's somewhat susceptible to kicks to the legs and body, but he's also happy to eat those on his way into the pocket. I expect Chikadze to land some kicks as Vallejos comes in, but Vallejos to make him pay for it with flurries of punches from the inside. Whether those are enough to finish the durable Chikadze remains to be seen.
Chikadze vs. Vallejos Pick, Prediction
Chickadze is a dangerous enough striker that I expect this fight to look somewhat closer than the betting line implies — at least in the first round.
Chikadze's style is hard to maintain over an extended period, especially against an aggressive fighter like Vallejos, who will force him backwards. We saw a much less technical Arnold Allen outstrike Chikadze in rounds two and three with a similar approach.
With the ability to parlay significant strikes for either fighter with the winner, I'm taking an anti-correlated shot here and betting on Chikadze to land at least 30 strikes, but pairing that with Vallejos' moneyline. That SGP is available on FanDuel, which specifically offers markets on total strikes and not significant strikes. However, I'd be fine taking a bigger swing on Chikadze's significant strikes paired with Vallejos on DraftKings as well.
I also like Vallejos as a live betting option, should Chikadze have enough early success to swing the betting lines substantially.
Billy's Pick: SGP: Kevin Vallejos ML & Giga Chikadze 30+ Strikes -143 (FanDuel)
