The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
Week 3 was my least favorite type of Contender Series card, in which all five fights had fairly wide betting lines, with the favorites coming through in every matchup. Week 4 should be more competitive, with some compelling matchups in lighter weight classes.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 4 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 2, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 4 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 4 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 4 Odds & Best Bets
Featherweight: David Mgoyan (-180) vs. Tommy McMillen (+140)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
It's been a rough road to the Contender Series for Montana's Tommy McMillen. Originally slated to compete on last season's show against Austin Bashi, the undefeated prospect suffered a shoulder injury and was forced out of the matchup.
Since then, he's picked up two quick submission wins against lower-level regional opposition, and was booked against Cody Law in his return to Vegas — before Law was forced out with an injury of his own.
Stepping in is Law's ATT teammate David Mgoyan, a Russian-born fighter with an undefeated record who just turned 21 in June.
McMillen is 8-0 with each of his fights ending via first round finish. He's clearly been "inspired" (to put it politely) by fellow Montana-born featherweight Sean O'Malley, following the former champion out to the MMA lab in Arizona while also morphing into an O'Malley lookalike with his hair style and tattoos.
What remains to be seen is if he can also emulate O'Malley's early success. McMillen is a tall, rangy, featherweight at 5'11". He's more of a grappling-based fighter, though, with three state wrestling championships to his name before transitioning to MMA.
His wrestling base allows him to throw freely on the feet, where he pushes forward with straight punches and dares opponents to attempt takedowns. If they do, he uses his length well to execute chokes from a front headlock position, with three guillotine wins on his record.
His striking is a bit sloppy, which he's gotten away with by having a considerable athleticism and size edge over most of his opposition. How he fares when that's no longer the case remains to be seen, but his potential is elevated by his plus-plus wrestling.
This will be the third fight of 2025 for Mgoyan, who has five knockouts and one submission on his 7-0 record. Like McMillen, he hasn't faced any especially stiff tests along the way, with his best opponent being an 18-12 journeyman 14 years his senior.
Mgoyan has plenty of experience though, winning the IMMAF amateur MMA championship before turning pro. He's also a protege of UFC lightweight Arman Tsarukyan, who has cornered him in his pro bouts.
Like Tsaurkyan he's a relentless grappler, exchanging briefly on the feet as a means to close the distance before smothering his opponents with repeated takedown attempts. He prefers to operate at range on the feet before leaping in with powerful shots — a potentially dangerous strategy against a taller, more confident striker in McMillen.
I suspect he'll be able to land takedowns on McMillen, though, especially if McMillen gets overly aggressive on the feet. Whether he can keep the American wrestler down and/or do any damage there is a bigger question, as he struggled to hold down John de Jesus in his decision win against the aforementioned 18-12 journeyman earlier this year.
He did show excellent cardio in that fight, continuing to throw hard and rack up takedowns well into the final round of that fight.
I believe the two likeliest outcome here are a McMillen knockout or a Mgoyan decision, depending on whether "Gun" can put away his persistent opponent before running out of steam.
Due to that, I'm coming in prefight with a bet on McMillen by KO at whopping +800 odds, but will be looking to hedge with a live bet on Mgoyan should this one make it to the end of the first round.
Prediction: McMillen by Knockout
Billy's Bet: McMillen KO +800 (DraftKings) | Mgoyan Live
Flyweight: Eduardo Henrique (-140) vs. An Tuan Ho (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
I was pretty high on An Tuan Ho last season, when he made his initial Contender Series appearance. The biggest problem for him was that he fought my favorite prospect of the year, Lone'er Kavanagh, who I correctly predicted would finish Ho.
That fight went according to plan, with Kavanagh dropping Ho with a clean left hook halfway through what had previously been a competitive first round. Since then, Ho has fought just once, picking up a 16-second knockout against a fighter with a losing record.
The LFA veterans best opponent outside of Kavanagh had just a 4-1 record, though that fight has aged well with the fighter in question going on a four-fight win streak since dropping the decision to Ho.
We haven't learned much about Ho since his last trip to the Apex, so I'm working based on my original read of his skills. He's a straightforward but effective Muay Thai style striker, marching forward with crisp combinations. I noticed his propensity to "take turns" following exchanges as a problem against Kavanagh, but most opponents won't be able to pounce on those opportunities as easily.
Eduardo "Chapolin" Henrique is far from a counter striker, with a hyper-aggressive striking style. He looks to draw his opponents into brawls, where he trusts his superior hand speed, power, and chin to carry him through.
He has double the amount of pro fights as Ho, with his 14-2 record marred only by losses to Kleydson Rodriguez (now 2-2 in the UFC) and former DWCS fighter Davi Bittencourt. That doesn't even count his time on The Ultimate Fighter Season 33, where he suffered a first-round loss to eventual season champion Joseph Morales. He's also fought much tougher competition overall, and has three LFA flyweight title wins to his record.
While his striking is less polished than Ho's, his experience edge and lack of knockouts suffered make him the likelier fighter to win in a slugfest, though I have my concerns about his ability to maintain that style across 15 minutes.
Especially since Henrique is coming in on short notice, replacing Ho's original opponent Frank Silva.
I see a similar dynamic as the first fight, where Henrique will be dangerous early, but Ho can take over late. Given the edge returning DWCS fighters have had historically (with a win rate over 60%) I'll be leaning towards Ho, and betting him to win parlayed with the over 1.5 round prop at +225 odds on DraftKings (under the "Fight Parlays" section). However, I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a Henrique early/Ho live approach to this one either.
Prediction: Ho by Decision
Billy's Bets: Ho and Over 1.5 Rounds +225 (DraftKings)
Lightweight: Samuel Silva (-140) vs. Mandell Nallo (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The lightweight fight between Canada's Mandell Nallo and Brazil's Samuel Silva features the most combined experience on the card, with 34 combined pro fights between the pair.
Nallo is a Montreal native training out of the famed Tristar gym, the onetime home of welterweight GOAT Georges St. Pierre, where his head trainer Firas Zahabi continues to train prospective fighters.
Nallo has fought all over the place, including a stint in Bellator in which he went 4-3 with a no contest. The 33-year-old is long for lightweight with a 75" reach, and puts that length to good use. He keeps his long jab in his opponents' face at range, while mixing in a powerful and sneaky calf kick against those who close the gap imprudently.
On the other hand, he looks uncomfortable striking at range, and reflexively looks to clinch on opponents who get past kicking distance. He's effective with his clinch grappling, but could leave openings for slicker opponents to exploit.
He's also not great on the ground, with two of his three Bellator losses being finishes on the mat. I wasn't able to find much recent tape of his takedown defense — and he seems to have made improvements since his Bellator days — but his length, upright stance, and reliance on kicks are all relatively bad signs in that department.
Brazil's Samuel Silva has similar pro experience with a 13-4-1 record, but is more than three years younger than his Canadian opponent. His most recent fight was a five-round decision for the Cage Warriors lightweight title against George Hardwick, who appeared on the 2023 season of the Contender Series and I scouted as having a similar style as Nallo.
Silva managed the range well out of his southpaw stance in that fight, though Nallo is a taller and longer opponent than Hardwick. However, Silva still was able to land repeatedly in close quarters, which should serve him well against his Canadian foe this time.
Silva also didn't grapple in that fight until the championship rounds, but was effective when he did. He went 2-2 on takedowns and ended the fight with a back body triangle. I don't want to read too much into his pacing in a five-round fight either, and he grappled earlier in his three-round LFA fights.
He also showed some slick back takes from the clinch, which could be a problem if Nallo continues to rely on clinching when pressured. The general grappling of Silva is likely to be the edge here, and I'm happy to lay the slight juice on the younger, more well-rounded fighter.
Prediction: Silva by Submission
Billy's Bet: Samuel Silva -140 (DraftKings)
Middleweight: Cezary Oleksiejczuk (-360) vs. Theo Haig (+260)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
The younger brother of UFC middleweight Michal Oleksiejczuk, Cezary Oleksiejczuk gets his shot at the big show on Tuesday night.
Cezary is just 25 but possesses a wealth of combat experience. He turned pro shortly after his 18th birthday, and is now 15-3 with two of his recent wins coming against UFC veterans. Prior to that, he fought 31(!) times as an amateur, starting at the age of 14, with 21 wins.
While I'm always wary of buying into the hype on siblings of established fighters, Cezary looks like an improved version of his older brother. He's a bit tighter with his technique on the feet, protecting himself well and working behind a long jab. He's also quicker, with fast hands and a remarkable ability to change levels and land straight shots to the body.
Plus, he clearly has big power, flattening UFC vet Tom Breese with a left hand in his most recent appearance, his third straight win by KO/TKO. Impressively, he didn't need to load up and swing wildly to get the job done, a smooth straight left hand was enough to wobble his British opponent.
Also like his brother, his grappling is a major concern. In his most recent loss, he caught one of his Russian opponent's kicks, followed him down to the ground, and was immediately reversed and stuck in bottom position for the rest of the round.
From that point on, Oleksiejczuk never spent more than 30 seconds or so at striking range for the remainder of the fight, with his best offense a couple of half-hearted armbar attempts that never posed a serious threat. To his credit, he also didn't take much damage on the ground, nor did he seem to slow his pace even deep into the fight.
What makes the matchup with Theo Haig so intriguing is that Haig is a grappling specialist. The 6-0 American has won each of his pro fights via submission, only once needing more than a round to get there.
While listed as a purple belt on his Smoothcomp profile, Haig has some black belt level grappling tournament wins, and he trains out of the famously wrestling-heavy AKA academy in San Jose. He should have a clear edge on the ground, but getting it there will likely be the determining factor in this fight.
It's hard to take much away from his tape, as only two of his past opponents had winning records (one of them at 1-0). That's a considerably lower level of competition than Oleksiejczuk has faced.
With that said, Haig was able to repeatedly take down the undefeated Dylan Diebitz in their fight, despite Diebitz's D3 wrestling experience. Haig does just enough on the feet to disguise his takedown attempts, while also opportunistically jumping on the back of opponents who attempt to turtle as means of escaping. I also appreciated the constant pace and pressure from Haig, though that's much easier to do when your fights all end early.
The -160 line on the Under 1.5 round prop is a good indication of the binary nature of this fight. Oleksiejczuk's experience makes him the rightful favorite here, but I'm not sure the line should be this wide given Haig's clear path to victory here.
While I'm officially picking Oleksiejczuk by (late) knockout, I'm putting a half unit on Haig's +260 moneyline at DraftKings, but as is a recurring trend this week, will also be on the lookout for live betting opportunities on Oleksiejczuk as the fight goes on.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk by TKO
Billy's Bet: Haig +260 | Oleksiejczuk Live
Welterweight: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-520) vs. Jack Congdon (+350)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
LFA veteran Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani is the heaviest favorite on the card, as he takes on fellow American Jack Congdon in the final fight of the night.
Lebosnoyani's 8-2 record isn't the most impressive on the slate, but his two losses have been to UFC vet Spike Carlyle and former DWCS aspirant Jacobi Jones, and he's fought exclusively against opponents with winning records since his third pro fight (which was the loss to Carlyle).
He certainly has a complete toolbox in terms of skills. In his last fight, Lebosnoyani dropped his opponent with an uppercut, entered a heel hook from De La Riva guard, and then wrestled back to his feet — all within the first 40 seconds of the fight. Three minutes later he finished his BJJ black belt opponent with a triangle choke, but not after landing multiple head kicks on the feet.
The biggest — and possibly only — criticism I have of his game is his relatively low speed and output on the feet. He mostly throws single shots, which he has a tendency to load up on fairly heavily. The former lightweight almost certainly has the ability to turn up the speed, but typically prioritizes power instead.
The 6'2" Congdon will have the size edge over Lebosnoyani, but I'm not sure what other edges he'll have. He has a Karate-style wide stance, where he flicks his lead leg out the way most fighters use a jab. He's much less comfortable trading punches in the pocket, though, and his wide stance makes it hard for him to move laterally enough to dictate the range where the fight takes place.
He's also fairly hittable, lacking the elite timing and head movement of stylistically similar fighters like Michael Page or Stephen Thompson, who get away with carrying their hands low thanks to their excellent movement and reflexes.
All of which makes Congdon a solid hammer but terrible nail, which the aggressive Lebosnoyani will be able to exploit. While Lebosnoyani's biggest edge is in his grappling, my guess is he'll be looking to put on a show with a highlight-reel knockout. I'm taking the favorite to win by KO/TKO/DQ at +225 on DraftKings.
Prediction: Lebosnoyani by knockout
Billy's Bet: Lebosnoyani KO +225 (DraftKings)
