We've got another card with two title fights this weekend at UFC 323, with the two longest-serving men's champions putting their belts on the line. The main event features Merab Dvalishvili looking for an unprecedented fourth title defense in a calendar year, while the co-main event features flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja looking for his fifth title defense.
The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the five-fight main card airing on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 p.m.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 323 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 323 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Merab Dvalishvili (-410) vs. Petr Yan (+320)
You know a champion has thoroughly cleaned out a division when the matchmakers are forced to turn to rematches. Part of the problem is that Dvalishvili didn't want to challenge his teammate, then-champion Aljamain Sterling, for the title, and instead dispatched of most of his fellow contenders before even claiming the title. The other part is his extreme activity, with this being Dvalishvili's fourth title defense of the calendar year.
None of which is to say Petr Yan isn't deserving of the title shot. He's won three straight fights since his loss to Dvalishvili, and outside of that loss, has only been defeated by disqualification or split decision. That means Merab is the only man to ever score a clean win over Yan.
However, it was more than just a clean win; it was utter domination. Dvalishvili swept the judges' scorecards 50-45, racking up 11 takedowns across the five-round contest. The scary part is that Dvalishvili has only looked better since then.
With the champion only about two years older than the challenger, it's also hard to say that time could be the equalizer here, as both men are in roughly the same stage of their careers. For all of those reasons, the roughly four-to-one odds on "The Machine" to retain his title feel about right.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Alexandre Pantoja (-245) vs. Josh Van (+200)
Alexandre Pantoja is arguably one fight away from having cleared the division to the same extent Dvalishvili has. He's defended the belt one more time than Dvalishvili has, but the flyweight division has/had a few more worthy contenders deserving their shot.
Perhaps the last of those is 24-year-old Josh Van. Currently #4 in Tapology's flyweight rankings, Van is the only member of the top five that Pantoja doesn't hold a win over, and he has multiple victories over the #2 and #3 fighters.
Van is an interesting stylistic matchup for Pantoja. He's one of the sport's most active strikers, landing nearly nine significant strikes per minute, with an evolving ground game that has allowed him to keep fights on the feet or scramble back up on the rare instance he's taken down.
He's also never fought a grappler of Pantoja's caliber, nor has he had his high-output style tested over five rounds. If I had more confidence in Van's pace being able to hold up over 25 minutes, I'd consider a shot on the underdog, but the current price tag isn't quite enough for me to take that chance.
I'll have a full breakdown of this fight on Saturday after I dig into some tape on both fighters, but until then, I'm passing.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Jan Blachowicz (-135) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+114)
On the one hand, this is a huge step up for Bogdan Guskov. He's taking on a former champion in Jan Blachowicz, and has yet to fight an opponent who was ranked inside the top-ten when they met — outside of Volkan Oezdemir, who defeated Guskov in Guskov's short-notice UFC debut.
With that said, Guskov has been perfect outside of the loss to Oezdemir, and I don't want to hold a short-notice UFC debut loss to a top-ten fighter against him. Since then, Guskov has gone 4-0 with four finishes, and most recently knocked out #12-ranked Nikita Krylov in the first round.
Things have been less positive for Blachowicz in recent years. He's now 42 years old and hasn't won a fight since 2022, with that win coming via an injury to his opponent in a fight that was tied on the scorecards to that point. His last clean win came against a middleweight, so it's been a very long time since he has had a definitive victory over an opponent his size.
Which makes me very happy to get plus-money on the younger fighter here. It's hard to see how things get better for Blachowicz moving forward at his age and with his injury history, so I'll take any chance I can get to fade him. Caesars Sportsbook has the best odds at +120.
Verdict: Guskov Undervalued
Marvin Vettori (-118) vs. Brunno Ferreira (-102)
Another veteran I'll be fading at UFC 323 is Marvin Vettori, even if he's actually slightly younger than his opponent.
Vettori has lost three straight and four of his last five, with many of those losses coming via opponents grappling him. That's a big problem against Ferreira, since "The Hulk" is a double black belt in Judo and BJJ, with multiple national title wins in the former grappling art.
He also packs plenty of power, with four of his six UFC/DWCS wins coming via knockout. Vettori is notoriously durable and has never even been knocked down, much less finished, but the years of relying on his chin more than his defense will eventually catch up to him.
The best-case scenario for Vettori is a fairly low-paced decision win, while Ferreira has the ability to end the fight at any moment. I'll take that any time at underdog odds, with DraftKings' -102 line the best in the market as of Monday.
Verdict: Ferreira Undervalued
