Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner Odds
| Barboza Odds | -340 |
| Turner Odds | +270 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+100/-130) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Edson Barboza vs. Jalin Turner prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Jalin Turner returns to the octagon from a brief retirement that lasted only nine months. Still just 30 years old, it was only two years ago that many felt Turner’s ascent could potentially land him in title contention. While there undoubtedly will be questions surrounding his motivation to fight once again, I believe more significant questions arise when analyzing the outlook of his opponent this Saturday, Edson Barboza.
Here's my Barboza vs. Turner pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Barboza | Turner | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-13 | 13-9 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:17 | 6:56 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 1/21/1986 | 5/18/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.14 | 5.53 |
| SS Accuracy | 44% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| SS Defense | 55% | 41% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.43 | 0.77 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 55% |
| TD Def | 73% | 75% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Barboza’s longevity in the sport should be commended.
A veteran of 31 UFC bouts, he debuted in the UFC in 2010 on a card that featured BJ Penn and Matt Hughes in the co-main event. The level of competition he has taken on throughout his career is remarkable, and even at his advanced age he continues stepping into the cage with ranked fighters.
Barboza has proven he can hang with some of the best in both the featherweight and lightweight division, which makes this line against Turner seem egregious given the volatility that Turner has brought with him over his past several bouts. However, father time comes for everyone, and his most recent loss to Drakkar Klose is concerning. Barboza landed just 26 total significant strikes to the head over the course of 15 minutes, while Klose landed 35.
It may have been the first time you could truly see his processing and movement begin to slow to a level that would put him at a disadvantage. Signs of deterioration weren't as evident in his loss to Lerone Murphy, with his performance attributed by many to Murphy’s undefeated status.
Barboza absorbed 172 head strikes from Murphy, while landing just 38. The margin in which he was beaten was substantial, but his accuracy suffered greatly as he landed just 20% of his striking attempts aimed at the head of his opponent. It’s clear the wear and tear has started to catch up with him.
Barboza has been finished by knockout four times in his career and he has been submitted on two occasions. He may still have the technical advantage in this matchup versus Turner, but all of the finishing equity is on the side of the younger, more powerful athlete. Turner’s length should be able to keep Barboza at a manageable distance, and his power will be a threat to end the night in round one.
Turner also has the ability to win grappling exchanges and his dangerous series of chokes could also spell trouble for the near-40 year-old Barboza. Barboza thrives when he can use forward pressure and win on output, but pressing forward will open him up to powerful counter shots and potential level changes.
Barboza vs. Turner Pick, Prediction
I won’t be surprised if Turner does oblige Barboza in contesting this match at kickboxing range, but length and power will be the difference maker if Turner chooses to keep the fight standing. The longer the fight is extended, the likelihood Barboza makes this a competitive fight increases.
With that said, it is fair to expect Turner to begin the fight patiently by using his height and reach to stay at a safe distance until an opening presents itself. This will also benefit his stamina, and should allow him to carry his power past the five minute mark.
Discounting the volatile nature of a Turner fight would be foolish, but he has all of the tools to win inside of the distance against an aging veteran in this spot. Turner's history tells us it probably happens within the first two rounds if he ends up as the victor.
John's Pick: Jalin Turner in rounds 1 or 2 -135 (FanDuel)
