Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira Odds
| Vettori Odds | -118 |
| Ferreira Odds | -102 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160/+124) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 323 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 323 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Marvin Vettori vs. Brunno Ferreira prediction for UFC 323on Saturday, December 6, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former middleweight title challenger Marvin Vettori is now fighting for his spot in the UFC rankings, as he takes on the unranked but fast-rising Brunno Ferreira. "The Hulk" is 5-2 in the UFC with five stoppages, making for an interesting contrast in styles against Vettori, who has seen his last ten bouts go the distance. Can Vettori outlast the explosive finisher, or will Ferreira become the first man to stop Vettori?
Here's my Vettori vs. Ferreira pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Vettori | Ferreira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 19-91 | 14-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:17 | 5:23 |
| Height | 6'0" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/20/1993 | 11/4/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.68 | 3.41 |
| SS Accuracy | 45% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.52 | 3.44 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 51% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.43 | 1.39 |
| TD Acc | 45% | 28% |
| TD Def | 65% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 1.0 |
Marvin Vettori has had one of the more drastic falls since challenging for a title in recent memory. Since his unsuccessful bid against Israel Adesanya at UFC 263, he's gone just 2-4, with one of those wins technically not coming at middleweight. It speaks to how thin the UFC middleweight division is that he's still officially ranked, though that would almost certainly change with a loss to Ferreira.
His most recent loss was this summer at UFC 318, against Brendan Allen in a bout that won fight of the night. It wasn't especially competitive, though, with Allen winning 30-27 on two scorecards and 29-28 on one.
One of the more concerning parts of that contest — which also may come into play for his fight against Ferreira — was Vettori's lack of takedown defense. He was known as a very strong defensive (and occasionally offensive) grappler for much of his UFC tenure, but allowed three takedowns on four Allen attempts. On the plus side, Vettori didn't spend much time grounded, but he did take some damage while getting up.
It was a similar story in his loss to Jared Cannonier, who racked up just three minutes of control time on four takedowns, but landed 20 significant strikes on the ground. That combination of time and ground damage can be enough to swing close rounds, and close rounds is precisely what Vettori's style lends itself to.
He's a volume striker with a slightly positive striking differential who has landed just one knockdown in his 17 UFC fights. He's also never been knocked down himself despite absorbing a relatively high total striking volume. That's extremely impressive considering his competition, but it's a dangerous game to play. Even the sturdiest of chins don't stay that way forever.
From a risk/reward standpoint, Ferreira is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Vettori. None of his 16 professional fights have needed a decision, and it wasn't until his 14th fight that he even saw a third round.
Ferreira initially made his mark in the UFC via his massive power, picking up first-round knockouts on the Contender Series and in his UFC debut. However, he's a lifelong Judo practitioner and multiple-time national champion, who also holds a black belt in BJJ.
He's relied more on his grappling in recent fights, picking up consecutive submission victories. That gives him the ability to end the fight no matter where it takes place, which could be a crucial factor given Vettori's grappling deficiencies in recent fights.
On the feet, he's a much less polished striker than Vettori, lunging in with big shots and swinging somewhat wildly. I expect Vettori to win minutes on the feet with his crisper striking, but Ferreira might be able to equalize the score with just one or two shots.
All of that finishing ability comes with a cost to his gas tank, though. Ferreira's most recent loss was a third-round stoppage loss that came after a dominant second round, with Ferreira seemingly out of answers when he failed to put his opponent away. Against a fighter like Vettori, who has never been finished, that could come back to haunt him.
Vettori vs. Ferreira Pick, Prediction
With all of that said, Ferreira's bigger actions — both striking and grappling — will likely swing him any close rounds that come up against Vettori, even if he can't put the Italian away. That's why I made a bet on him in my Luck Ratings article on Monday.
I tracked it as a half-unit bet to give myself room to bet on Ferreira to win inside the distance, but the +180 odds on that prop aren't quite enough for me.
Instead, I'll be sprinkling a quarter unit on Ferreira to win via submission at +900 odds via DraftKings, on top of my half-unit moneyline bet. Given his recent wins, and Vettori's relative weakness, I view a submission as likely as a knockout, with a much better price.
On top of that, I'll be looking for live betting opportunities on Vettori, in case Ferreira dumps the tank trying to finish him in the first round.
Billy's Pick: Ferreira -102 (.51u) | Ferreira Submission +800 (.25u) | Vettori Live
