The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
All five fights on the Week 6 card have reasonably close betting lines — my favorite kind of DWCS card. We've got some notable names including TUF 32 vet Paddy McCorry, and multiple time IBJJF world champion Mahamed Aly appearing this week.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 6 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 16, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 6 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 6 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 6 Odds & Best Bets
Bantamweight: Cody Chovancek (+120) vs. Raphael Uchegbu (-142)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
This week's bantamweight opener features two of the more experienced competitors we've seen this season. Canada's Cody Chovancek comes in with an 8-0 record, with his last two fights both making it into the fifth round. England's Raphael Uchegbu is 10-1 with stints in Bellator and the PFL, with a pair of fifth round finishes of his own.
Sometimes watching tape on five-round fights can be misleading, as fighters tend to pace themselves more than in three-round fights. However, both Chovancek and Uchegbu have been aggressive from the opening bell, even in five-round contests, with both showing excellent gas tanks that allowed them to pick up late finishes.
I was much more impressed by Chovancek's tape than I expected to be. The Niagara Top Team fighter started out as a striker, but training alongside his wrestling-based teammates at NTT has helped him round out his game well.
The southpaw is patient on the feet, but throws with power and volume when he decides to exchange, showcasing especially good counter striking when his opponents over-extend themselves. While he's not especially quick by bantamweight standards, his strikes are short and direct, allowing him to beat opponents to the punch.
With a traditional boxing high guard, he defends strikes to the head well, but is a bit more vulnerable to body and leg attacks. I'm also concerned that an opponent who goes "first and third" with their strikes — or "counters the counter" — could catch him slipping on at the end of exchanges.
What was most impressive about Chovancek was his ability to time takedowns to disrupt his opponent's rhythm. Whenever his opponents look too comfortable on the feet, he'll mix in a quick takedown to shake things up. Even if the first few takedowns don't lead to much top control, each one becomes harder and harder to escape, leading to Chovancek winning minutes from the top.
Which could be the key to beating Uchegbu, a taller/longer, and faster opponent. Uchegbu is all long right hands and head kicks on the feet, firing those powerful strikes from a distance repeatedly. He's not as technically sound with his strikes as Chovancek, but he is a former featherweight with better all-around physical tools.
Uchegbu is also a slick submission grappler, but that's a double-edged sword. He seems mostly content to hunt submissions off his back when taken down, which has served him well against lower-level competition.
However, if Chovancek is able to ground him, the likeliest outcome is Uchegbu giving away minutes by playing rubber guard and looking for fairly low-percentage submission attacks. Similarly, Uchegbu will be relying on big shots on the feet, while Chovancek wins minutes with a steadier attack.
The likeliest outcomes here are a spectacular win from Uchegbu or a gritty decision from Chovancek. The former gets harder to come by as the level of opponent rises, while the latter is at plus-money, so I'm taking Chovancek.
The best line is +130 at Caesars.
Prediction: Chovancek by decision
Billy's Bet: Chovancek +130 (Caesars)
Middleweight: In Soo Hwang (+200) vs. Paddy McCorry (-245)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
In Soo Hwang was originally booked against would-be returning DWCS fighter Will Currie, but Visa issues kept the Englishman from making it stateside in time for the fight. Instead, he draws Irishman Paddy McCorry, who was apparently able to get his Visa processed on short notice.
Hwang is 8-1, with six of his wins coming via knockout in the first six minutes of the fight. He's fought exclusively in South Korea so far, winning the Road FC middleweight title in a three-round decision in his last fight.
Like many of his countrymen, Hwang is far more interested in offense than defense, marching forward with his hands low. He works behind a very quick low leg kick that he eventually climbs up the body if he can get his opponent's hands down. At 5'11", he's on the shorter side for the division, but once he gets into range, he's happy to brawl from the pocket.
As evidenced by his 6-1 record in fights that end via KO, he has both the power and the chin to get the better of those exchanges more often than not. It's still a dangerous style, of course, and limits his ceiling against more technical strikers.
Hwang's takedown defense and grappling also looked solid in the few exchanges I found on tape, but that doesn't tell us much considering both the low level of his past opponents and the general emphasis on striking from most Korean fighters.
It will surely be tested more thoroughly by McCorry, a TUF 32 veteran who picked up his only win in the house via submission. He's more well-rounded than a pure grappler, but dominated his last fight via top position and ground and pound, after picking up a quick knockout against a BJJ black belt in the prior fight.
The 6'3" McCorry has a considerable length edge over Hwang, and typically maintains distance well on the feet. However, he's noticeably slower with his strikes and not as explosive as Hwang.
McCorry is a deserving favorite, but the line is a bit too wide for my taste considering the short-notice nature of the fight. With that said, it's hard to see Hwang winning by anything other than a knockout, so I'm taking a sprinkle on his KO/TKO/DQ prop at +440 via BetRivers.
Prediction: Hwang via KO
Billy's Bets: Hwang KO/TKO/DQ +440 (BetRivers)
Lightweight: Tommy Gantt (-148) vs. Adam Livingston (+124)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
All ten of Tommy Gantt's professional MMA wins have come in a span of just 17 months, with three additional amateur fights since the start of 2024. While that seems like a rushed pace, it makes sense considering he's a former D1 All-American wrestler at NC State, where he currently serves as assistant wrestling coach.
Most of those opponents had losing records at the time of the fight, with Gantt's toughest test by record coming against 11-7 Josh Henry late last year. Henry was 35 at the time of the fight, hadn't fought for more than 18 months, and stands 5'4."
The 6'0" lightweight uses his range surprisingly well on the feet, working behind a quick jab at range and mixing in knees from close range. Outside of that, he fights exactly like you'd expect from a fighter wearing a wrestling singlet in his Tapology picture, with elite takedowns and dominant top pressure.
The extremely low level of opposition from Gantt makes it hard to draw too many conclusions about his skills. He hass obviously worked very hard on his striking, and has the natural speed/athleticism to perform well on the feet.
He's taking on fellow undefeated prospect Adam Livingston, a 6-0 fighter from Long Island. "Bomb" has four knockouts in his six wins, including a June 20 win on an LFA card.
The 6'3" Livingston throws harder, but wider, on the feet than Gantt, but isn't quite as naturally twitchy. He did show excellent takedown defense in his LFA win, but his opponents' wrestling wasn't anywhere near the level he'll face in Gantt.
While the 24-year-old Livingston probably has the higher ceiling long term of the two fighters, I'm not sure he's ready for this level of opponent. While it's a big step up for both men, Gantt has the background and athletic gifts to continue to be the hammer in this matchup. Plus, I tend to trust the conditioning of former wrestlers, even though neither man has been in many extended fights.
The best line on Gantt is -140 at Caesars, and I'd play his moneyline down to -150.
Prediction: Gantt by decision
Billy's Bet: Gantt -140 (Caesars)
Light Heavyweight: Iwo Baraniewski (+215) vs. Mahamed Aly (-265)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
My most anticipated fight of the night features former IBJJF world champion Mahamed Aly, competing in just his fifth pro MMA fight after transitioning from grappling early in 2024.
Aly is still just 31, so unlike past grappling converts, he's firmly in his athletic prime as he attempts to earn a UFC contract. He's had a solid ramp-up in competition since converting to MMA, culminating in a decision win over UFC veteran Jared Gooden this March.
He's also clearly put some time into learning how to strike, with his first two pro MMA wins coming via head kick:
While his striking isn't the most polished, he's tall and fast, with big power. He hasn't needed to use his grappling much in MMA, but he's got great takedowns, forcing Nicky Rodriguez to flee the mat on multiple occasions to avoid being put down in their 2019 ADCC match.
What makes this fight so interesting is that his opponent, Iwo Baraniewski, is no slouch on the mat himself. The Polish fighter is 6-0 with two submission wins, but was a national champion in both Judo and nogi grappling at various points in his combat sports career.
He also won multiple GAMMA world championships as an amateur (2022 and 2024) before turning pro in 2024, giving him a wealth of experience at just 26 years old.
He still hasn't faced the level of opposition Aly has, though, either in pro MMA or in various other combat sports. He's been fairly dominant against the opponents he has fought, preferring to punch his way into range, where he can use his Judo trips and throws from the clinch.
That's going to be dangerous against the taller and longer Aly, who could catch him on the way in if Baraniewski gets sloppy while advancing. However, Aly's inability to finish Gooden — who was fighting two weight classes up — has me less concerned about that than I otherwise would be.
With both men being high-level grapplers, there's a strong chance that they cancel each other out on the ground, and this turns into a cautious striking match. While it's going to be a sweat, the over 1.5 rounds prop is +124 at DraftKings.
If you wanted to really push it, you could mix that into a parlay with Mahamed Aly to win and juice the odds to +225, but I don't want to get greedy here.
Prediction: Aly by decision
Billy's Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds +124 (DraftKings)
Bantamweight: Hecher Sosa (+114) vs. Mackson Lee (-135)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
Week 6 concludes with another bantamweight bout, featuring 13-1 Spaniard Hecher Sosa taking on the undefeated (9-0) Brazilian Mackson Lee. Notably, this line opened with Lee favored as high as -186, but public money has pushed the line much lower.
The 6'1" Lee would be the tallest active bantamweight if he were to make it to the UFC roster, though at just 26, my guess is he will move to featherweight in the somewhat near future. Either way, he typically, and again, has a considerable height and reach advantage over his opponents.
Lee was brought along slowly, with his first seven pro opponents having losing records or making their debut. However, his last two fights were in the LFA, where he picked up stoppages over fighters with 7-1 and 8-2 records.
He's well adapted to fighting as the taller man, keeping his opponents out of range with calf kicks and jabs while looking to set up bigger kicks from the outside. He finds himself stuck against the fence from time to time, but stays fairly defensively responsible in those exchanges. He also uses his length well while grappling, with his long arms allowing him to lock up guillotines and D'Arce chokes when their neck is exposed.
He needs to be careful not to give up position when looking for those submissions, but he's a very solid grappler otherwise, with solid sweeps when he's stuck in bottom position. Still, he will probably prefer to keep it standing where his length is a bigger edge.
Maintaining that range will be a tough task against Sosa, who in nearly every fight I was able to find video on, has sprinted right at his opponent and started brawling. While he doesn't keep up that pace consistently, rushing right through the long range of Lee is certainly one way to equalize the height difference.
Sosa is faster and more powerful than Lee, and will mix in the occasional takedown against opponents who step in too aggressively. That latter factor likely won't come up in this one, as Lee will instead be looking to stay at distance and circle away from the charging "Guanche Warrior."
The combination of Sosa charging forward recklessly and Lee standing with his hands down and chin up means we should see this one settled, one way or the other, fairly quickly. I could see Lee catching Sosa rushing in with a long shot, or Sosa blitzing inside of Lee's range and putting him away.
The Under 1.5 Rounds prop is +130 at DraftKings, and "fight not to start Round 3" is -125. I'm good with either of those angles, but will personally be playing the safer option of the fight ending inside of two rounds.
Prediction: Hecher Sosa by knockout
Billy's Bet: Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 -125 (DraftKings)
