The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
We've got another week with some close, high-level bouts, plus a squash match in the opener.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 7 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 16, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 6 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 6 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 7 Odds & Best Bets
Light Heayweight: Rafael Tobias (-470) vs. Jair de Oliveira (+360)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Week 7 opens with what looks to be a squash match between Brazilian lightheavyweights, with 22-year-old Rafael Tobias installed as a more than four-to-one favorite.
He's 13-1, on a five-fight winning streak, and has ten finishes evenly split between knockouts and submissions. Most of those knockouts have come via ground and pound and he also occasionally competes in grappling, so he's likely to try to take this fight to the ground.
In most of his (limited) tape, he initiates the takedown within the first minute or so of the fight, and controls the action from there. While he's not an elite technical wrestler, he's a physical specimen with above-average athleticism that can "brute force" his opponent to the ground.
I was most impressed by his ground work. He mixes the best elements of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu — guard passing and pinning from top position — with solid ground and pound. Crucially, he prioritizes submissions like arm triangles and americanas that don't involve sacrificing position. That will allow him to find success at higher levels even when he can't find quick stoppages. The question for him will be how well his takedowns work against UFC-level opponents, but at just 22 he has plenty of time to refine his technique.
That's a question we won't see answered tonight, as he takes on the likely over-matched Jair de Oliveira. While his 6-0 record is impressive, he's fought just one opponent with a winning record, and that man was 1-0 at the time of the fight.
The 5'9" former heavyweight made his pro debut in 2015 but then took seven years away from competition, and appears to train at a gym he owns/runs where he primarily teaches cardio kickboxing classes.
The only tape I could find on him was from his own self-posted highlight reels. He's surprisingly quick for his size, with solid kicks, but those likely leave him open to takedown attempts from Tobias. He's also giving up 5+ inches in height, so attempts to close the distance will almost certainly be met with takedowns or clinching, and he'll have a hard time kicking to he head of his much taller opponent.
While Oliveira probably has a puncher's chance here, Tobias should have no problem handling him in this matchup. His Round 1 prop is -160 or so and his odds to win inside the distance are pushing -400 which doesn't feel worth it to me, but if forced to bet it I'd go with one of those two options.
Prediction: Tobias via TKO (Ground and Pound)
Billy's Bet: Pass
Featherweight: Javier Reyes (-192) vs. Justice Torres (+160)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
Javier Reyes has gone through three planned opponents on the Week 7 card, before finally settling in on Justice Torres. First, Reyes was supposed to fight Robbie Ring in a bout where Reyes would be a considerable favorite, then he was matched with Icaro Brito where he would've been a big underdog, now he gets a somewhat close matchup with Torres.
The fact that the UFC has worked this hard to keep Reyes on the card, rather than simply pushing back the Ring or Brito fights, tells me they're somewhat invested in him. At 21-5 he's far more experienced than the typical DWCS fighter — and most UFC fighters — but is still relatively young at 31 years old. As expected given his experience, he's fought plenty of tough competition including DWCS season 7 standout Lerryan Douglas in 2024.
All of Reyes' losses have come against solid prospects, and he's been able to dispatch lesser competition fairly easily.
Reyes is a bit on the small size for featherweight at 5'7" but his 73" reach allows him to be effective from the outside, where he works behind solid leg and body kicks. However, he tends to stand straight and expose his chin at times, such as in his knockout loss against Douglas. I was relatively impressed with his offensive output on the feet, but he relies too heavily on his athletic tools, which is why he's struggled when matched up with other high level competitors.
He's also a BJJ brown belt, and does his best work on the ground. He's comfortable enough on the feet to not force takedowns early, so opponents get lulled into striking matched before he switches tactics. Once he gets top position, his plan A is ground and pound, but he's happy to take rear naked chokes if the strikes lead to his opponent giving up their back.
Justice Torres is stepping in to his fourth fight of 2025, barely a month removed from his win at Fury FC. The 12-3 American also has solid experience at 27 years old, including in five round fights as the former Fury FC featherweight champ.
He's listed as an inch taller than Reyes, though weigh in clips cast some doubt on that. Either way, he's giving up four inches in reach, which will make for an interesting dynamic on the feet.
Torres is primarily a striker, and trains out of 4 oz. fight club in Houston with UFC standout Josh Van among others. He's extremely patient on the feet, working out of a southpaw stance. I worry a bit about his defensive grappling because he's been taken down fairly easily be lesser opponents, but he's never been finished on the ground and showed solid submission defense in the clips I saw.
Of course, as with Reyes' striking defense, it's harder to hide those flaws against higher level opposition. I'm more confident in the idea that somebodies defensive weakness will be exploited than I am in which fighter it will be. For that reason, I'm taking the under 2.5 Rounds at +154 via FanDuel
Prediction: Torres via KO
Billy's Bets: Under 2.5 Rounds +154 (FanDuel)
Flyweight: Sofia Montenegro (-218) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+180)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The second women's fight of the season features Argentina's Sofia Montenegro taking on Brazil's Jeisla Chaves in a battle of two relatively unproven prospects.
Montenegro is 6-1 as a pro, but has just one win against a fighter with a winning record. That's still considerably better than the strength of schedule faced by Chaves, since she's never beaten an opponent with a single professional win heading into the bout.
Montenegro trains out of the UFC PI and is likely the fighter the UFC is hoping to sign following DWCS. "La Bruja" (the witch) also has a muay thai bout on her pro record, and in the limited tape I was able to find appears to be an aggressive striker who is happy to exchange punches and kicks on the feet. That has come back to bite her though, with her lone loss coming by a knockout in ten seconds, and she took some heavy shots in her decision win at FFC 81.
She did initiate the grappling exchanges in that fight, though, and also has a heel hook win on her record. Her takedown attempts were fairly clumsy, but she showed very good control and offense once she got to top position.
Chaves is undefeated at 5-0, but as mentioned above has never fought an opponent with a past win. She also has a muay thai win on her record, as well as a fight deemed illegitimate by Tapology. She fights out of "Gomes Fight Team" and three of her five wins are for the "Gomes Fighting Championship" which heavily suggests somebody has been helping to pad her record.
There's a few videos of her striking matches available but none of her competing in MMA fights, which is a bad sign in and of itself. Beyond that, she didn't appear especially impressive even in those contests. She does seem to compete regularly in BJJ contests as well, recently getting her purple belt.
While I couldn't find any information on Montenegro's BJJ rank (if any), she does have a win in a superfight against a purple belt opponent, and she appears to be at roughly that level based on the video I found.
Add to that a significant athleticism edge for Montenegro on top of her much tougher competition and it's easy to see why she's the favorite here. I'm surprised the line isn't longer, and I'm happy to lay the juice on her moenyline at -215 on FanDuel, and I'll also sprinkle on her inside the distance prop at +165 at DraftKings.
Prediction: Montenegro via Submission
Billy's Bet: Montengro -215 (1u, FanDuel) | Montenegro Inside the Distance +165 (.5u, DraftKings)
Featherweight: Brahyan Zurcher (-148) vs. Murtazali Magomedov (+124)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Based on the names and country of origin of the featherweights in this matchup, you'd almost certainly guess wrong if I asked which fighter is a primary training partner of Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov in Dagestan.
That would be Zurcher, who was born in Mexico, is based out of Vegas, but is flown in to Dagestan to help prepare the Russian fighters for their matches. He's 9-0 as a pro with five of those fights coming under the PFL banner (including their "challenger series" which has given him a relatively solid level of opposition, and he's responded with seven finishes including four straight knockouts.
He fights like a Dagestani, staying composed on the feet before dragging the fight to the mat, where he looks to set up wrist control from top half guard and do damage. While he's far from the second coming of Khabib, he has the ability to win a lot of fights with his grappling.
On the feet, he seems comfortable at range, working behind a quick jab and solid leg kicks. He's awkward when opponents force their way into close quarters, but his grappling allows him to neutralize that threat more often than not. How the range plays out here will also be interesting, as Zurcher is listed as anywhere from 5'8" to 6'1" depending on which prefight graphic you believe. For what it's worth, he appears roughly the same height as Magomedoz in their stare down at weigh ins.
Magomedov has an identical 9-0 record, with four knockouts and five submissions. He was also the 2021 and 2022 GAMMA world amateur champion before turning pro, so he has plenty of experience against reasonably tough competition.
He manages distance well, claiming the center of the cage and pressing his opponents backwards with solid footwork. However, he got a bit overaggressive in his last fight, and got rocked by a clean counter from his opponent before shooting for a desperation takedown. He tends to shell up and retreat when faced with heavy shots, rather than staying engaged in position to counter. When given time and space he can be dangerous, landing a big knee for a walk off knockout in his last fight.
Magomedov's last fight was 15 months ago, though, so there's a chance he's made significant improvements since we've seen him in action, especially at age 26.
This is a tricky fight to handicap, since both fighters are dangerous on the feet but have significant defensive question marks. Additionally, both have excellent top games and takedowns, but neither has been forced to defensively grapple much. That makes it hard to have any confidence in how the grappling exchanges will go.
While I was hoping the line would be wider, it's hard to pass on the slight plus-money in what feels close to a 50/50 fight. The best line on Magomedov is the +124 at DraftKings, but it's a half-unit bet for me given my lack of confidence.
Prediction: Magomedov via Decision
Billy's Bet: Magomedov +124 (DraftKings)
Middleweight: Dani Barbir (-125) vs. Mantas Kondratavicius (+105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
WE finish the night with consecutive close matchups, as 7-0 Dani Barbar is a slight favorite over 7-1 Mantas Kondratavicius. Both men have finished all seven of their wins, and they stand an identical 6'3" tall.
Barbir trains out of American Top Team Zagreb in Croatia, alongside UFC fighter Ivan Erslan who fights this weekend in Perth. He fought very weak competition for his first few fights but has stepped up appropriately over his last three, where his opponents are a combined 18-11.
While he didn't log a ton of cage time in those fights, his athleticism, size, and aggression are immediately apparent. I also watched him drop an opponent with a push kick, land a spinning back kick, hit multiple Judo throws/trips, and pick up two submission wins.
Besides the highlights, he's also defensively sound with solid head movement and a high guard, while using his reach to keep opponents at bay with a long jab. I also appreciate the nature of his submission wins — chokes from top position which he creates an opportunity for with his brutal ground striking. Opponents seem to want to grapple him thanks to his speed and power, but it doesn't seem to go well when they do.
That probably won't be the plan for Kondratavicius, who competed as a professional kickboxer before transitioning to MMA. Further, his lone pro loss came on the ground, where he was beat up from mount before giving up his back for the rear naked choke.
He did a good job deterring takedowns with uppercuts before eventually being taken down, but offered very little resistance once placed there. Furthermore, Barbir's upper body takedowns don't rely on shooting, and are thus harder to defend.
I'd give Kondratavicius the slight edge on the feet, but Barbir a considerable one grappling. Plus, he trains with the better team, and is likely to have made the more significant improvement since his last appearance.
While I don't love the layoff for Barbir, I'm willing to overlook at considering the -125 odds at DraftKings
Prediction: Barbir via TKO (Ground and Pound)
Billy's Bet: Dani Barbir -125 (DraftKings)
