The sporting season we've been waiting all summer for is finally upon us. Not the NFL, it's the Contender Series, where 100 or so UFC hopefuls will battle in hopes of earning a UFC contract.
Week 8 of the Contender Series features some lopsided fights, a middleweight "main event" and a pair of fighting nerds on the card — which is pretty much the usual at this point.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 8 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, September 30, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 6 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 8 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 8 Odds & Best Bets
Flyweight: Rashid Vagabov (-625) vs. Paulo da Silva (+455)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
As is becoming the DWCS tradition, Week 8 opens with what appears to be a squash match designed to highlight one fighter.
The clear A side here is Vagabov, a 13-2 Dagestani with a Sambo background who lists his head coach as Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, the late father of Khabib and architect of the Dagestani MMA dynasty. As well as training with Khabib and company, he also spends time at American Top Team and the UFC PI in Las Vegas.
Vagabov is 13-2 as a pro, with both losses coming against undefeated fighters with far more experience than him at the time of their meeting. He's fought consistently tough competition, with none of his past opponents having losing records and just two of them at .500 heading into their fights.
His style is exactly what you're imagining. He'll mix it up on the feet briefly, but as soon as he senses an opening he shoots for a takedown, drives his opponent to the fence, and passes to half guard where he works for wrist control to set up ground and pound. He does appear a bit more hittable than many of his teammates, but that's hard to exploit without elite takedown defense. As soon as he finds himself in any trouble he initiates grappling, and not a single opponent in the tape I saw was able to defend the takedowns for long, or escape back to their feet once their back was on the canvas.
I don't expect Silva to change that. While his 11-1 record is impressive, he's only beaten one opponent with a record above .500, and that was via split decision. You can only beat the fighters they put in front of you, of course, but it's not the strongest sign.
How he's won is also concerning. Prior to the split decision, all nine of his pro victories were via submission. In that last fight, he was taken down multiple times and stuck on his back, only getting back to his feet due to a referee's stand up. The Charles Oliveira disciple likes to play guard and look for submissions off his back, but that's a low percentage strategy unless you're Charles Oliveira.
Plus, we've seen how Oliveira's strategy works against fighters like Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan, and Silva doesn't pose nearly the striking threat his coach does.
I wouldn't fault anyone for taking a long shot stab on Silva by submission at +1800 — if he's going to win, that's almost certainly how — but he's not going to win. The lines on the favorite are all entirely too long to be worth playing, so this one is a pass from me.
Prediction: Vagabov via TKO (Ground and Pound)
Billy's Bet: Pass
Featherweight: Kurtis Campbell (-470) vs. Demba Seck (+360)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
We then move on to another borderline squash match, although this one has slightly closer odds.
The favorite is 7-0 Kurtis "The Pink Panther" Campbell, a Liverpool based fighter who has fought exclusively in the UK. He's finished five of those seven wins and has fought reasonably tough opponents, with his last three holding a combined 19-5 record at the time of their fights with Campbell.
I noticed some slight red flags in his resume, though. Despite being based out of the UK he hasn't fought for the Cage Warriors promotion, instead primarily competing for an organization called FCC. He also doesn't train with Paddy Pimblett and company at Next Generation MMA in Liverpool, instead training at a smaller gym with less high-level talent. Good fighters have came from smaller gyms and promotions, but I'd feel better about it if he trained with a more well known camp.
While they don't train together, Campbell does share a degree of similarity with fellow Liverpudlian Pmblett. On the feet, he's awkward and wild, but effective, using his length for the division to throw strikes from odd angles at distance. His A game is on the ground, though. He's an aggressive back chaser from any position, winning his last fight by rear naked choke after hitting a Berimbolo into a crucifix, then sneaking one leg around for a hook and latching on to the back.
Senegal's Demba Seck is old for a prospect at 32, but has a 10-2 record with eight finishes. Both of his losses have been decisions — one a split — but he's fought relatively low level opposition. He's trying to make up for lost time, with his Contender Series appearance his fourth fight of 2025.
Seck has a Taekwon-do background and is president of ITF Senegal, with that background evident in his fights. He's extremely quick on the feet, has an elite kicking game, but seems uncomfortable if forced to exchange in the pocket.
I was somewhat impressed by his grappling, though. He'll wrestle offensively from time to time, and hit a nice granby roll to fend off a back take from a tough position. I'm not sure that will be enough to elude Campbell's back chasing, but he's not entirely lost on the canvas.
For that reason, I'm taking a slight sprinkle on Seck to pick up a knockout at +800 odds via DraftKings. With both fighters having a tendency to lose focus on defense and Seck appearing to have the speed and power edge, he has a solid puncher's/kicker's chance at finding the button. The likeliest outcome is Campbell winning on the ground, but I prefer Seck via KO at odds.
Prediction: Campbell via Submission
Billy's Bets: Seck KO/TKO +800 (DraftKings)
Welterweight: Eliezer Kubanza (-258) vs. Christopher Alvidrez (+210)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
This week's only American combatant, Christopher Alvidrez, brings a 6-1 record (plus a win in Karate Combat) to Las Vegas on Tuesday. Training out of the Goat Shed in Miami with plenty of UFC talent, the 28-year-old has fought mostly lower level opponents until his last bout, a first round win over UFC veteran Takashi Sato.
That was the sixth straight loss for 35-year-old Sato, however, so it's hard to put much stock in that victory for Alvidrez. Prior to that, his toughest opponent was 3-1. That win has aged well, with his opponent picking up consecutive knockout wins since then.
Alvidrez also looked good in that fight, switching stances fluidly and landing combinations from the outside, while escaping back to his feet when taken down. I'm not sure if he has a formal Karate background but he moves like a Karate fighter, carrying his hands low and darting in with kicks from odd angles. He also likes to mix in the occasional jumping strike, including a strange, but effective, downward chop.
However, those are all risky techniques, and Alvidrez relies on his excellent speed for the division to stay out of danger. He's a former lightweight who still moves like one, but there's certainly fighters who can match or exceed him there at the UFC level.
Eliezder Kubanza just might be one of them. From the Congo, Kubanza trains out of Soma fight club in Indonesia, home of some lower-level Asian UFC fighters. He holds a BJJ purple belt but prefers to settle thing son his feet, with six knockouts on his 7-0 record, which came against relatively tough competition in the Brave FC promotion in Bahrain.
He's a massive welterweight, with a 75" reach at just 5'9" tall, and most of his recent fights coming at 175lbs catch weights and his amateur career exclusively at 185. He was able to make 170lbs for this fight, but looking at him it's hard to see how he was able to do so.
At the risk of stereotyping, he's also an extremely explosive athlete, leveling opponents with single shots before hitting celebratory standing back flips. What most impressed me about him was his patience, as he bides his time on the feet and sets up strikes from range, rather than rushing in and relying on his athletic talent to get the better of exchanges.
He's also been battle-tested against grapplers, showing good takedown defense in his fights against primarily grappling-based opponents in Brave. I'm not sure Alvidrez plans on wrestling in this one, but he'll have a hard time picking up takedowns if he needs to go that route after being hurt.
I don't hate the idea of laying the juice on Kubanza's moenyline, but his likeliest win condition is almost certainly a knockout given Alvidrez's somewhat reckless style. The combination of speed and length from Kubanza will test that defense in a way Alvidrez is unprepared for, and should lead to a finish at some point. FanDuel has the best odds at -130.
Prediction: Kubanza via KO
Billy's Bet: Kubanza by TKO/KO -130 (FanDuel)
Bantamweight: Louis Jourdain (-205) vs. Magno Dias (+170)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
This fight has some notable names for MMA fans, with Charles Jourdain's younger brother Louis taking on Fighting Nerds representative Magno Dias in bantamweight action. Dias is the second Fighting Nerd on this season of the Contender Series, after Cesary Oleksiejczuk picked up a first round knockout on Week 4.
The 6-1 Dias is 3-0 since joining Caio Borralho's team, with his opponents holding a combined 11-1 record. He's finished all of his wins, with two knockouts and four submissions, while also being submitted in his lone loss.
Tape on Dias is frustratingly hard to find, thanks to most of his bouts being contested in smaller Brazilian promotions. From what I was able to find, he's mostly a brawler on the feet, happy to exchange big punches in the pocket, knowing he can shift to grappling should the need arise.
His takedowns were impressive, hitting a Judo throw against an opponent attempting to take him down, and picking up plenty of big double legs when he was the one to initiate. It's also easy to see how his lone loss came via guillotine, as he shoots with his head on the outside and is more interested in picking up his opponents for big slams than he is in clearing the legs and passing to side control, which would negate the submission threat.
Jourdain trains out of Brazilian Top Team Canada in Quebec with his brother, and holds an 8-3 MMA record as well as some professional boxing experience. Two of those three losses came via rear naked choke, which combined with the boxing experience paints a picture of his style. It's also worth noting that he's fought at flyweight recently, but so has Dias, so both men are on the smaller side for bantamweight.
Jourdain has the height and reach edge, though, which is a key factor in this matchup. He likes to kick at range, snapping low kicks and teeps to keep shorter opponents at bay. That's a double-edged sword, as it can keep grapplers out of wrestling range, but also makes takedowns easier if the opponent is able to time the kicks and catch them or shoot at the base leg. He was also taken down with a Judo throw in his last fight, which is an interesting factor considering Dias' use of similar techniques.
Jourdain is the much cleaner striker though, with excellent boxing counters on aggressive opponents. While I'd rate his power as slightly below Dias', he lands punches in combinations which are more than enough to get the job done.
He also, interestingly enough, has a tendency to pull/jump guillotines on shooting opponents. Given Dias' outside head position on his shots, that could be something to watch for in this fight.
Givne both fighter's somewhat clear path to finishing the fight with submissions, I'm betting half a unit on the fight to end via submission at +380 on DraftKings, plus an additional half unit on Dias, whose wrestling could win him the fight even without a finish.
This way, we profit with any Dias win or a Jourdain submission, plus a big return with a Dias tap out victory.
Prediction: Dias via Submission
Billy's Bet: Fight Ends Via Submission +470 (.5u) | Dias +180 (.5u) Both viaFanDuel
Middleweight: Damian Pinas (-130) vs. Vitor Costa (+110)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
Fulfilling yet another DWCS trope, we have a middleweight "main event" for the fourth time in eight weeks. This one features another Fighting Nerds, Vitor Costa, who is the reigning Jungle Fight champion at both light heavyweight and middleweight.
Costa is 8-1, with his lone loss coming in his debut. That came to Cesar Almeida, a current UFC fighter who at the time was transitioning from kickboxing, where he holds a win over Alex Pereira, into MMA. He's also been out of action for just over a year, with his last fight being a light heavyweight title defense at Jungle Fight 130 last September. Since he's just 25, any analysis of his skills come with an asterisk, since he could've made considerable improvement over the last year.
He's fought solid competition but no true top contenders, even in his title wins. The fight last September, for example, came against a 4-3 opponent. He showed solid offense in that fight but got hit far too often for my tastes, as he leaves himself exposed trying to throw extended combinations of wide hooks. That wasn't just in his last fight, he took more damage than he needed to in all of the tape I watched.
However, he moves his feet well for a heavier weight class fighter, which allowed him to avoid being hit cleanly. I'm also not sure how long Costa has been with the Fighting Nerds, though, so there's a strong chance he's cleaned up some of those holes since we've last seen him in action. I wasn't able to find much tape of him grappling outside of a club-and-sub guillotine finish, though I don't think that's going to matter in this matchup.
That's because Damian Pinas is 7-1, with six of those wins coming via knockout. His only loss came via DQ due to an illegal kick that seemed to involve a fair bit of acting by his opponent, since the kick mostly landed on his neck which would be a legal strike.
He's also yet to fight in 2025 but was active more recently, in December of 2024, and was originally booked for Week 1 of the Contender Series. Trianing out of Nova Uniao and originally from Suriname, he's an aggressive striker who has yet to see a third round in any of his fights.
Like Costa, he's a bit wild on the feet, but has superior length and speed, as well as better one-punch power. However, he is/was extremely green on the ground, getting taken down often and relying on his athleticism to power his way back to the feet, rather than technique. The commentators in his last fight mentioned that he was still a white belt in BJJ, meaning he's at best a blue belt now.
However, he's been able to survive trips to the ground despite fighting in Brazil, which is a good sign. Costa not being much of a grappler himself also limits how much that will matter.
This is a tough fight to call and both men have high ceilings at their young age, but Pinas has the better athletic tools and durability, so I expect him to get the better of the brawl this fight likely turns into. With that said, I expect both men to fight in the UFC at some point once they round out their game, and I wouldn't be shocked if either shows some new wrinkles after trianing with high-level teams for the last year.
With the under 1.5 juiced at -200, rather than lay the juice on Pinas' moneyline, I'll take him to win inside the distance at +100 via DraftKings
Prediction: Pinas by KO
Billy's Bet: Damian Pinas Inside the Distance +100 (DraftKings)
