Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski Odds, Prediction
| Shahbazyan Odds | -180 |
| Petroski Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 Rounds (-145/+114) |
| Location | State Farm Arena | Atlanta, Georgia |
| Bout Time | 11:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Atlanta odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC Atlanta with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out my Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski predictions, picks and odds for UFC Atlanta on Saturday, June 14.
A pair of middleweights with drastically different styles meet on the UFC Atlanta main card. Edmen Shahbazyan is 7-5 in the UFC, with five of those wins coming via knockout, mostly in the first round. Petroski is 8-2 in the promotion, with five straight decision victories. Whichever man cam impose their preferred style and pace likely comes out of this one with their hand raised, but who will it be?
Here's my Shahbazyan vs. Petroski prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Shahbazyan | Petroski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-5 | 13-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:01 | 11:06 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 185 lbs. | 185 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Date of birth | 11/20/1997 | 6/12/1991 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.78 | 2.89 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.85 | 2.65 |
| SS Defense | 47% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.97 | 3.38 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 54% |
| TD Def | 65% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.5 | 1.5 |
Edmen Shahbazyan's "Golden Boy" nickname is a reminder that he was once the hottest prospect in the sport.
He competed on the 2018 season of the Contender Series as a 6-0 prospect with six first round victories, all before his 21st birthday. He kept that momentum into his early UFC run, winning his first four fights with three first round knockouts.
Then the UFC started matching him up with grapplers.
First it was Derek Brunson, who landed four takedowns on Shahbazyan. Then came Jack Hermansson who picked up three en route to a decision victory. It's been up and down for Shahbazyan ever since, alternating highlight-reel knockouts over lower-level competition, while dropping submissions and decisions anytime he fights stiffer competition with a grappling base.
Shahbazyan is still just 27 years old, though. He's still a few years short of his athletic prime, and could still be getting better with each passing fight. It's somewhat hard to say with any certainty that has happened, though, since the fighters he's beaten haven't really challenged his grappling.
His last two wins came against opponents who didn't even attempt to take him down (Dylan Budka and AJ Dobson), while the last to opponents who got him to the ground were able to finish him there.
Everything we know about Andre Petroski tells us he will at the very least attempt to bring this fight to the canvas. An awkward striker, Petroski knows what his strengths and weaknesses are.
He's a former D1 wrestler who also holds a BJJ black belt, and trains with some of the sport's best grapplers at Renzo Gracie Philly. The Pennsylvania native averages more than six takedown attempts per 15 minutes, landing at an impressive 54% clip.
Petroski has been criticized in recent fights for not attempting to finish opponents on the ground, though I'd argue that was mostly due to his opponents. Josh Fremd and Budka both held on for dear life once Petroski got top position, choosing to lose slowly rather than take a risk for the possibility of winning.
To his credit, Shahbazyan looks for escapes and submission attempts from his back, though that often leads to him being finished along the way.
I was also encouraged by Petroski's recent win over Rodolfo Viera. Viera was almost a three-to-one favorite over Petroski, and is also one of the most credentialed grapplers ever to convert to MMA. Petroski beat him without landing a single takedown, despite stepping in on short notice.
While I don't expect Petroski to pull off that feat against the much more talented striker this time around, it's still a good sign that his overall game has evolved.
Of course, Petroski's chin is somewhat of a concern. He was knocked out in about a minute by Michel Pereira — albeit also on short notice — then knocked himself out shooting into Jacob Malkoun's hip. While the latter was somewhat fluky, it still doesn't give much confidence in his ability to absorb shots from Shahbazyan.
Shahbazyan vs. Petroski Prediction
This is an extremely binary fight, in that's it's both striker vs. grappler and finisher vs. decision fighter.
The likeliest outcomes seem to be Shahbazyan landing a big shot early, or Petroski coasting to a fairly dominant wrestling heavy decision.
I tend to side with the grappler in those matchups, particularly given Shahbazyan's track record against anyone who even attempts to grapple him. That goes double when the grappler comes in at plus money.
For that reason, I'm taking Petroski straight up. The best line is +154 at FanDuel.
Billy's Pick: Andre Petroski ML +154 (FanDuel)
