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Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: Value on the Over/Under in Prelim Fight (Sept. 18)

Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: Value on the Over/Under in Prelim Fight (Sept. 18) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Impa Kasanganay.

  • Welterweights Impa Kasanganay and Carlston Harris go head-to-head on the early portion of Saturday's UFC Fight Night card.
  • Kasanganay enters as the bout as a slight favorite (-120 odds) over the relative newcomer Harris on fight day.
  • Erich Richter explains why he's betting on the total (2.5 rounds) in this potentially explosive fight.

Impa Kasanganay vs. Carlston Harris Odds

Kasanganay Odds-120
Harris Odds+100
Over/Under2.5 (-150 / +125)
TimeApprox. 5 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.

Two incredible athletes face-off in the UFC welterweight division when Impa Kasanganay takes on UFC newcomer Carlston Harris this weekend at the APEX. Harris is 1-0 in the UFC with an easy first-round anaconda choke submission over Christian Aguilera.

Kasanganay (9-1 overall and 4-1 in the UFC) opened as a -150 favorite, but have dropped a bit as the fight nears. Each fighter’s past two bouts have ended inside the distance, which means we could see some fireworks on Saturday.

So where’s the value in this scrap? Let’s break down both sides and find out.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:302:52
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)75″76″
Date of birth1/17/947/9/87
Sig Strikes Per Min5.081.74
SS Accuracy49%38%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.410.35
SS Defense59%90%
Take Down Avg1.830.00
TD Acc58%0%
TD Def63%100%
Submission Avg0.35.2
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Kasanganay was really trending upwards prior to his run-in with Joaquin Buckley. The brutal highlight-reel knockout led to us only seeing Kasanganay once since last October.

He is a grappling expert with serious power in his hands, but I worry about his confidence against a seriously powerful striker and equally good grappler.

Kasanganay took care of business against his last opponent, Sasha Palatnikov (though that felt like more of a tuneup fight), but I am interested to see how Impa fairs on Saturday.

Harris has bounced around the regional circuit for most of his career but finally got the call to the UFC, and he is no joke. He defeated Michel Pereira despite a size discrepancy early in his career.

Harris’ UFC debut started by wobbling his Aguilera on the feet with a great 1-2 combination. Aguilera was forced to shoot for a takedown, but left his neck exposed and Harris easily locked in an anaconda choke from north-south to put him to sleep.

This setup could recreate itself again on Saturday if Harris has anything to say about it.

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Kasanganay vs. Harris Pick

My biggest issue with a bet on Harris is that his submission grappling is typically the best road to a victory. Unfortunately for Harris, Kasanganay has a strong grappling ability himself.

Either fighter could get a submission, it will be a battle of wills. Admittedly, Kasanganay has had some activity issues and his chin could be wearing thin. Moreover, Harris’ last five fights have ended inside the distance; none of which have made it to the third round.

This is one of many reasons that I prefer to bet on this fight to end via finish. Currently, the fight to end via decision is -126. This is a surprising number as I capped this fight to end inside the distance at -120.

Furthermore, both fighters have shown the willingness to obtain finishes in their recent bouts. BetMGM posted the fight to end in under 2.5 rounds at +125.

I would bet that down to +115 before I take the fight to not start Round 3 at +140. Lastly, a stab on a second-round finish by Impa at +1050 could be a worthwhile bet if either fighter tires out.

The Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds +125

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