Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 320 (Saturday, October 4)

Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds

Check out the Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. prediction for UFC 320on Saturday, October 4, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree might be the two biggest Magomed Ankalaev fans in the building on Saturday night. They are a combined 0-3 with three knockouts against Alex Pereira, but could be in line for an immediate title shot if Ankalaev retains his crown. Of course, one of them has to win this fight first.

Here's my Prochazka vs. Rountree pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree are, in many ways, in very similar positions heading into UFC 320.

Both lost title fights to Alex Pereira in 2024, before rebounding with wins over Jamahal Hill in 2025. Rountree might have a case for a rematch against Pereira should they both win at UFC 320, given how competitive he was with Pereira in the early portion of their fight, but Prochazka doesn't, having lost to Poatan twice — both in the second round.

What makes the MMA math difficult is that Prochazka looked better against Hill, dropping him early in the fight before finishing him in the third round. With Rountree finding more success against Pereira, you can make the case for either man.

That's mostly a factor of their differing styles (and stances), though. Rountree is on the shorter side for the division and does his best work as a counter-puncher. While he initiated on occasion against Pereira, his best moments came when responding to Pereira's strikes, especially kicks. The problem for Rountree in that fight is that he took the shots before countering, whereas against lesser competition, he's been able to defend, then answer back.

Against an opponent like Hill, a fellow counter-striker who seemed a bit gu- shy in the Rountree fight, that led to long stretches of inactivity. Rountree won't push the action much himself, particularly when he (rightfully) feels like he's ahead on the scorecards.

This shows up in his stats, where Rountree has a negative striking differential overall. That's misleading, though, as he will often be hit only partially, while landing clean returns of his own. Still, that's a bit of a flaw in the traditional Muay Thai style practiced by Rountree. Thai boxers tend to "take turns" firing shots at each other, while higher-level MMA strikers will disrupt that rhythm with combinations or constant pressure.

What remains to be seen is if Prochazka is truly a higher-level MMA striker. He blitzed through his early UFC run on pure aggression and intensity, but has never been a technical savant, putting himself in awkward positions and absorbing plenty of damage along the way. It's worked against everybody he's faced outside of Pereira, but absorbing more than five significant strikes per minute at light heavyweight is a dangerous game to play.

To his credit, he seemed somewhat more interested in defense against Hill. Not enough to, for example, keep his hands in front of his face, but enough to at least attempt to move his head out of the way of incoming punches. The southpaw hill still found plenty of success with straight left hands, though, to the head and especially to the body.

Those strikes will also be there for the left-handed Rountree, who is much better at winning the front foot battle than a fighter like Hill, who simply switches stances if he gets flanked by his opponent. Additionally, Hill and Pereira were both able to hurt Prochazka in close quarters thanks to Prochazka's tendency to throw wide strikes. That could be doubly effective for Rountree, with his shorter limbs able to find the target more quickly in tight spaces.

On the other hand, the ace in the hole for the former champion might be the grappling. He's landed takedowns in three of his seven UFC fights, which doesn't even include his submission victory of Glover Teixeira, whom he was able to sweep/reverse multiple times on the ground. Rountree's next landed takedown will be his first, and he's 0-3 in fights where his opponent lands a takedown.

That hasn't happened in his last eight fights, which is a testament to his improved takedown defense, sure, but also speaks to the type of matchup he's been given. He's faced just six attempts in that span, three of which came from fellow kickboxer Dustin Jacoby. Prochazka might be the best wrestler Rountree has faced in the last six or so years, but it's far from a given that he'll choose to use it.

Prochazka vs. Rountree Pick, Prediction

My initial read on this fight was that I was interested in the over 1.5 rounds, which at the start of the week was around even money. Evidently, I was late to the party, with that bet getting pushed all the way to -145 or so by Friday.

That's a bit too juicy considering the power both men bring, as well as the potential grappling threat from Prochazka. Instead, I'm splitting my bet on two plus-money options, with a strong likelihood that one or the other hits.

The first is a moneyline bet on Rountree at +175 odds via ESPNBet. I view him as the much better technical striker in this matchup, with the durability to absorb a shot or two from Prochazka while still getting the better of the exchanges. He's more likely than the +175 odds to win a pure striking match.

If it's not a pure striking match, it's likely due to a takedown from Prochazka. His over 0.5 takedowns prop is +250 at DraftKings, but I'd make the fair price around +150.

I'm risking half of a unit on each, and while it's unlikely that they both win, the odds mean we just need to hit one to turn a profit.

Billy's Pick: Rountree +175 (ESPNBet) | Prochazka Over 0.5 Takedowns +250 (DraftKings)