UFC 261 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Karl Roberson vs. Brendan Allen (Saturday, April 24)

UFC 261 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Karl Roberson vs. Brendan Allen (Saturday, April 24) article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Karl Roberson.

  • Karl Roberson and Brendan Allen will meet in the octagon at UFC 261 in a matchup of two fighters who love to go for the finish.
  • Erich Richter breaks down why there is betting value on the underdog and a quick finish in this undercard bout.

Roberson vs. Allen Odds

Roberson odds
+134
Allen odds
-158
Over/Under
1.5 (-142 / +112)
Venue
Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena, Fla.
Time
Approx. 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.

Two of the more entertaining fighters in the middleweight division will square off when Karl “Baby K” Roberson and Brendan “All In” Allen meet Saturday on the UFC 261 preliminary card.

Roberson is 6-3 in the UFC with his last loss coming against now top contender Marvin Vettori. He has competed two times at light heavyweight and six times at middleweight. Allen is 4-1 in the UFC all at middleweight and is coming off of a KO loss to Sean Strickland. Six of Roberson’s eight UFC fights have ended in a finish and just one of Allen’s five fights hit the judge’s scorecards.

Both fighters are constantly looking for stoppage wins. However, I think one fighter holds a significant power edge that could end this fight early if he connects.

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Tale of the Tape

Roberson Allen
Record 9-3 15-4
Avg. Fight Time 7:33 7:40
Height 6’1″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 74″ 75″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 11/4/90 12/28/95
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.00 3.55
SS Accuracy 51% 59%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.42 4.57
SS Defense 57% 39%
Take Down Avg 0.99 1.17
TD Acc 57% 37%
TD Def 50% 50%
Submission Avg 0.8 2.0

Both Roberson and Allen are known to be high-output fighters who like to land big shots. However, I think this could be the downfall of Allen — he absorbs 4.57 significant strikes per minute while landing just 3.55 significant strikes per UFC Stats.

Reviewing the tape doesn’t exactly help Allen’s case either. He was out-struck on the feet against Kyle Daukaus. His next fight ended in a knockout loss to Sean Strickland, who is more of a volume striker and not known for his power.

In that fight, Michael Bisping was very critical of Allen’s new coaches who implored Allen to keep going forward. Allen had little head movement and no feints to stop the jab and 1-2 combination from landing. If Allen has not improved drastically in his striking, Roberson’s power will be a massive problem.

Roberson debuted in the Dana White Contender Series at light heavyweight and knocked out Ryan Spann 15 seconds into the first round to earn himself a contract.

Roberson’s two fights at light heavyweight really showcased his power. The Spann knockout was followed up by the near knockout of Glover Teixeira who is now scheduled to fight Jan Blachowicz for the title in September.

Conversely, Allen has seen struggles in his boxing throughout his career. He was originally at Sanford MMA for his training camp, but has since switched over to Roufussport, run by four-time kickboxing world champion Duke Roufus.

Roufus is a legendary coach who has helped guys like Anthony Pettis and Tyron Woodley reach stardom. However, Roufus also told the MMA community that CM Punk was ready to compete inside the octagon and that camp has not produced a champion in years.

Roberson vs. Allen Pick

Allen has been a favorite in every one of his UFC fights and this one is no different. I expect Allen’s run as a perennial favorite to end after this fight — especially given the matchup.

Roberson has lost on the ground to top-tier competition, but I am not sure that Allen is at the level of those other guys. I expect Roberson to land plenty of clean shots on Allen and pick up a victory here.

Currently, Roberson is +134 on FanDuel (42.74% implied odds) and I would bet his moneyline down to +110 at a 5% edge. I like the value on Roberson by KO/TKO. FanDuel has this prop listed at +340 and  I would bet that down down to +300.

The Pick: Roberson +134 ML | Roberson by KO/TKO +340

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