The UFC has two title fights on tap for UFC 320, with the light heavyweight and bantamweight crowns both up for grabs at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The 14-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the main card officially kicking off at 10:00. The prelims are on ESPN+, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 320 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 320 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Magomed Ankalaev (-258) vs. Alex Pereira (+210)
I was pretty surprised to see Ankalaev open as such a heavy favorite in this fight. This is a rematch from March, in which Ankalaev eked out a narrow decision — two judges had it 48-47 — over Pereira.
The thought going in was that this was a fairly binary striker-vs-grappler matchup. Ankalaev went 0-for-12 on takedown attempts, but was the more active striker, winning with a combination of superior volume as well as cage control time, but never really significantly hurting Pereira.
Being five years younger and the winner of the first fight both point in Ankalaev's direction, but I'm not sure it's that simple. Pereira came into that one banged up, and it was his fourth title defense in just under a year. We rarely see champions that active, and for good reason, given the wear and tear fighting top-level opponents that often entails.
Now, both men have had roughly seven months to recuperate, so they should be close to 100%. Pereira was a slight favorite in the first fight, and while it makes sense to adjust the line based on what we saw, this is almost certainly an overcorrection.
The +210 at DraftKings is the best available line, and I'm also interested in Pereira's point spread of +5.5 at -120. He would've covered that one in the last fight. My guess is casual money will come in on Pereira throughout the week, so it makes sense to get on this one now.
Verdict: Pereira Undervalued
Merab Dvalishvili (-375) vs. Cory Sandhagen
Merab Dvalishvili is picking up where Pereira left off in terms of title defenses, stepping right back into action less than three months after his win over Sean O'Malley in June.
I'm less concerned about that activity level for Merab, though, for a couple of reasons. The first is the lack of damage he's taken in his fights. He averages less than 2.5 significant strikes absorbed per minute and has been knocked down just once in 15 UFC fights, more than four years ago.
The other is his fighting style. Dvalishvili approaches every fight the exact same way, with relentless wrestling and grappling. He doesn't need training camps dedicated to specific opponents, since nothing will change in his approach to the fight. Even if he did, a matchup with a 5'11" striker isn't exactly new ground for the champion, since that description fits both Cory Sandhagen and O'Malley, whom he has defeated twice.
It's hard to see this one going much differently, and I'm tempted to list the champ as "undervalued," but that's a hard sell as around a four-to-one favorite. Still, if I had to bet a moneyline on Monday, it would be "The Machine."
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Joe Pyfer (-238) vs. Abus Magomedov (+195)
Speaking of matchup similarities, Abus Magomedov is coming off consecutive wins over explosive finishers Brunno Ferreira and Michel Pereira, and draws a third similarly styled opponent in Joe Pyfer at UFC 320.
While Pyufer is a stiffer test than either of those two fighters, he's also a heavy swinger with underrated grappling. Magomedov has excelled in those matchups, using his long reach to slow down the pace and his own grappling to keep opponents off balance. He submitted Ferreira in a win that has aged well, with "The Hulk" picking up consecutive submissions of his own since then.
More importantly, I trust Magomedov's cardio in an extended fight much more than Pyfer's. Pyfer has just one decision win in the UFC, over Kelvin Gastelum, and he lost the third round despite previously dropping Gastelum twice.
Magomedov is far less likely to get caught early and more likely to be able to turn it on late. For that reason, I'm putting a half unit on his moneyline at DraftKings — other books have dipped as far as +172 — while reserving half of a unit for a live bet come fight night.
Verdict: Magomedov Undervalued
