We're headed to a new market this weekend for UFC Baku, live from the Baku Crystal Hall in Azerbaijan. Former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill meets former challenger Kahlil Rountree in a five-round main event.
We've got 12 fights on the card in total, which airs on ESPN at a special noon ET start time.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,��� I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Baku odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Baku Predictions & Luck Ratings
Khalil Rountree (-162) vs. Jamahal Hill (+136)
With former champion Alex Pereira no longer holding the title, the light heavyweight division is now wide open.
Two of his former opponents, Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree, can insert themselves right back into title contention this weekend, as they meet in the main event of UFC Baku in Azerbaijan.
Hill is coming off consecutive knockout losses to Jiri Prochazka and Pereira, and has yet to win a fight after rupturing his Achilles tendon and vacating the light heavyweight belt in 2023. He was also forced out of a 2024 matchup due to a knee injury, and is now 34 years old.
He may never return to the championship level he achieved prior to his injury — though he was fairly competitive with Prochazka before the third-round stoppage.
On the other hand, Rountree is a year older, and took a ton of damage in his loss to Pereira. While it was somewhat of a moral victory — he gave Pereira his stiffest test to date at light heavyweight — it wouldn't shock me to see a Dom Reyes-esque fall from grace after an unsuccessful title bid that led to so much damage.
I also like the stylistic matchup for Hill, so I'm leaning towards the underdog here. Public money seems to be coming in on the Rountree side, though, so I'll be waiting for some more line movement before making a bet.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Myktybek Orolbai (-165) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+140)
There's a few different reasons I'm picking a side early in the main card lightweight fight between Myktybek Orolbai and UFC newcomer Tofiq Musayev.
First is that Orolbai is coming off a split-decision loss. While that fight was probably judged correctly, it was still an extremely competitive fight against Mateusz Rebecki, who is 4-1 in the UFC and a difficult stylistic matchup for Orolbai thanks to his elite grappling game.
The second part is the performance of PFL/Bellator/Rizin veterans when coming over to the UFC. Musayev is joining Kai Asakura, Patricio Pitbull, and Patchy Mix as fighters to make the leap from other large organizations in the past six months or so. All three were disappointing in their debut.
Like most of that list, the 35 year-old Musayev is somewhat past his prime, and wasn't a championship-level fighter in other promotions to begin with.
Orolbai is just 27 and still on his way up. Plus, early opening books have already moved ten or 15 cents to the favorite, so grab his moneyline before it moves more. The best line is -165 at Caesars.
Verdict: Myktybek Orolbai Undervalued
Oban Elliot (-500) vs. Seokhyeon Ko (+380)
I picked (sort of) Seokhyeon Ko to pull off the upset on the Contender Series last season at odds nearly this long, and I'm going back to that well this weekend.
The South Korean prospect is a protege of Korean MMA pioneed Dong Hyun "Stun Gun" Kim, who had a 13-4 run in the promotion. Ko shares some similarities with Kim — and recent Korean UFC debut fighter Joo Sang Yoo — but arguably has the more well rounded skill set.
On top of solid power — he has six knockouts in 11 pro wins — he also has a background in Judo, and was a world champion in combat Sambo prior to transitioning to MMA.
Oban Elliot is a very tough ask for a UFC debut, but Elliot was dropped by Val Woodburn, and has been taken down by every opponent who attempted a takedown against him.
Those are both solid signs for Ko, especially at +400 odds via Caesars. The line seems to be growing so we probably could wait a bit longer, but I'm happy to get four to one for a quarter unit sprinkle.
Verdict: Seokhyeon Ko Undervalued
