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UFC Betting Odds: Look Ahead Lines for Spring and Summer 2019

Apr 21, 2019 1:18 AM EDT
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Jones (left), Henry Cejudo (middle), Amanda Nunes (right).

  • The UFC's spring and summer slate is full with champions like Jon Jones, Rose Namajunas, and Amanda Nunes set to defend their titles.
  • Looking at these lines early on can provide great betting opportunities.

The betting lines for most UFC fights aren’t released until a week or two before the event. However, the lines for bigger fights — especially championship bouts — are released as soon as the fight is announced.

Almost every fight sees substantial line movement in the weeks leading up to the contest. Depending on which side you like, placing a bet further out from the fight can provide significant value versus the lines available on fight night.

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade

  • Rose Namajunas (c) +120
  • Jessica Andrade -140
  • Date: May 11
  • Channel: Pay-per-view available on ESPN+

Rose Namajunas (8-3) attempts her second defense of the UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship against Jessica Andrade (19-6).

Despite entering the fight on a three-fight win streak, Namajunas is the underdog for the fourth consecutive bout. If you’re looking to bet on Namajunas, history suggests you should wait.

 

The median line increase on Namajunas has been +7.1% in her UFC career. It’s worth noting that this line has already increased 8.3% since opening, but three of Namajunas’s last four lines have increased between 8.8% – 22.5%.

Andrade is the favorite for the seventh time in her last nine. Andrade is 5-0 as a favorite at strawweight and 9-2 as a favorite overall. The line on Andrade has decreased since 7.6% since opening.

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes

  • Henry Cejudo +115
  • Marlon Moraes -140
  • Date: June 8
  • Channel: Pay-per-view available on ESPN+

After successfully defending his flyweight title against then-bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw, Henry Cejudo expected to get a rematch for his own shot at double gold. However, Dillashaw relinquished the title prior to two-year suspension from USADA for an anti-doping violation.

Cejudo (14-2) now gets his shot at the UFC Bantamweight Championship against No. 1 ranked bantamweight Marlon Moraes (22-5-1).

The former Olympian is an underdog for his third consecutive fight. Cejudo is 2-2 as an underdog in the UFC, having won his last two. The line on Cejudo has already decreased 16.8%; this is by far the largest line movement in Cejudo’s UFC career, positive or negative.

For the fourth time in a row, Moraes enters a fight with a negative money line. Moraes is 2-1 as a favorite in the UFC and is undefeated since his UFC debut. If you’re looking to bet on Moraes, now would be the time to capitalize. The line on Moraes has increased 8.3% since opening; the line on Moraes has never increased by more than 10.3% in a UFC bout.

  • Valentina Shevchenko (c) -1035
  • Jessica Eye +635

Valentina Shevchenko (16-3) will make her first defense of the UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship against Jessica Eye (14-6).

Shevchenko will be the favorite for the fifth time in a row and sixth time overall in the UFC. There’s little reason to expect much movement on this line. The line has already increased 1.4% since opening and the most a line has ever moved on Shevchenko as a favorite is 8.3%.

The challenger Eye will be a massive underdog in this bout. Eye has been the underdog in seven of her 10 UFC fights. It seems most of the value has been sapped from this line – it has already dropped 26% since opening.

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos

  • Jon Jones (c) -655
  • Thiago Santos +455
  • Date: July 6
  • Channel: Pay-per-view available on ESPN+

The No. 2 ranked pound-for-pound fighter Jon Jones (24-1) looks to make good on his promise of increased activity when he defends his UFC Light Heavyweight Championship against Thiago Santos (21-6). This will be Jones’s second title defense of 2019.

As per usual, Jones is the prohibitive favorite entering this contest. The long-time champion has been the favorite for his last 19 fights. Jones hasn’t been an underdog since his second UFC fight (against Stephan Bonnar in January 2009).

The line on Jones’s fights stay relatively consistent. This line has increased just 2.9% since opening. The movement on a Jones line has eclipsed 10% just once since September 2011.

This is unfamiliar territory for the challenger, Thiago Santos. Santos is the underdog for the first time since he fought Jack Hermansson seven fights ago. This is the best value on Santos since his 2014 against Ronny Markes. Santos was +575 in that bout, which he ultimately won via first-round knockout.

Like Eye, Santos has lost substantial value in his line; it’s dropped 31.1% since opening at +625.

  • Amanda Nunes (c) -330
  • Holly Holm +255

After successfully capturing the UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship last December, Amanda Nunes (17-4) returns to 135 lbs. to defend her bantamweight title against Holly Holm (12-4).

Nunes is the favorite entering her second title defense; the champion has only been the favorite in one of her previous seven fights.

Now is as good as time as ever to get a bet in on Nunes. This line has only decreased 0.6% since opening, but three of the past four lines on Nunes have decreased heavily (-25.5%, -5.6%, -33.3%) by closing time.

This is the best line on Holm since she challenged Ronda Rousey for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship in 2015. The line on Holm has moved -5.6% since opening. The last two lines to decrease for Holm wound up moving -17.6% and -9.5% respectively.

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