John Makdessi vs. Ignacio Bahamondes UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction: Take the Dog by Decision
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter John Makdessi.
- Saturday's early UFC slate features eight prelim bouts, including a matchup between John Makdessi and Ignacio Bahamondes.
- In this veteran vs. newcomer matchup, Bahamondes enters as the betting favorite (-190 odds) despite his lack of experience.
- Erich Richter previews the fight, including where he sees value in the matchup.
Makdessi vs. Bahamondes Odds
|Over/Under||1.5 (-275 / +225)|
|Venue||UFC APEX, Las Vegas|
|Time||Approx. 2 p.m. ET|
|Channel||ESPN / ESPN+|
|Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM|
With eight fights on the prelim slate, Saturday’s undercard features plenty of UFC newcomers. Among them is 23-year-old Ignacio Bahamondes who is facing off against John “The Bull” Makdessi. Bahamondes is 11-3 overall and has one win on the Dana White Contender Series — a knockout victory against Edson Gomez.
Makdessi enters as the underdog in this fight despite his wealth of octagon experience and kickboxing background. This makes for a very tasty appetizer to what should be a profitable main card of fighting.
Below I preview the matchup for Saturday’s fight, including where I see value based on the odds.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:38||7:31|
|Weight (pounds)||155 lbs.||155 lbs.|
|Date of birth||5/3/85||8/27/97|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||5.36||8.78|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.76||2.66|
|Take Down Avg||0.0||0.0|
Bahamondes is massive for a 155-pound fighter — he towers over his opponent with a slender 6-foot-3 build and a 75-inch reach compared to 5-foot-8 Makdessi who has 68-inch reach.
He checks all of the physical boxes in this fight, but his first UFC fight was far less impressive than the highlight reel knockout showed. Bahamondes ate plenty of hard shots in that match against a Gomez — a fighter who frankly should not have been on the Dana White Contender Series.
On the other hand, Makdessi has the third-best significant strike defense in the entire lightweight division (and 10th best all-time) per UFC Stats. This is a big step up in competition for Bahamondes in his first fight on the roster.
John Makdessi vs. Ignacio Bahamondes Pick
Bahamondes’ first UFC fight was one of the most bizarre things I have ever watched. Gomez appeared to be badly out of shape, missed weight, and did very little to defend any of Ignacio’s attacks. Somehow he was still able to land some clean shots on Bahamondes’ chin despite getting finished.
A higher-caliber fighter should do much more damage on Bahamondes than Gomez. Bahamondes has three losses on his record in past promotions and that combined with shoddy defense in his debut makes me seriously skeptical that he can compete with legitimate UFC-level fighters.
Makdessi is not a grappler so Bahamondes — who has been submitted twice — won’t have to worry about that. However, he will have to worry about actually landing strikes against a conditioned fighter who won’t tire out as quickly.
Makdessi lost his last fight to UFC stalwart Francisco Trinaldo despite out-striking him. Prior to that, Makdessi had rattled off three straight victories by decision. His precision and defense should be enough to come away with the victory here.
I project Makdessi’s decision prop to hover around +250 (28.57 implied odds). BetMGM has this prop listed at +333 (23.09 implied), which gives us an edge of five percentage points.
I will be a bit wary of a potential finish in this fight. Makdessi’s best path to a win is being extremely difficult to hit and frustrate his opponent. We could see Bahamondes overcommit — similar to Edmen Shahbazyan against Derek Brunson.
I would bet Makdessi’s moneyline down to +135 and while I think a finish is possible, Makdessi has not won a fight via stoppage since 2015. The reality is +333 is too high for a decision victory.
The Pick: John Makdessi ML (+160) | Makdessi by decision (+333)
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