We had another strange event last weekend at the Apex, and we're returning there this week for one more card before the blockbuster UFC 322. This one features #14-ranked welterweight Gabriel Bonfim in the main event against the unranked Randy Brown.
The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET, with the main card officially at 7:00, both airing on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 111 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 111 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Gabriel Bonfim (-185) vs. Randy Brown (+154)
Gabriel Bonfim went 5-1 with four finishes across his first six UFC bouts, before winning a split decision that the vast majority of fans and media scored against him in his last time out. That came 42-year-old Stephen Thompso,n who had been finished in his two previous fights, so while technically a win felt like a step back for Bonfim.
That makes a matchup with the unranked Randy Brown feel appropriate. Brown is a prototypical gatekeeper, picking up win streaks against lesser competition but typically losing against fighters in or on the verge of the rankings.
That makes this a matchup that Bonfim should win but certainly could lose, so having him favored at around -185 feels about right. There may be some better angles in the prop market later in the week, but for now, I'm deeming this fairly valued.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Hyder Amil (-135) vs. Jamaal Emmers (+114)
This is a tricky one from an early betting standpoint. On the one hand, Emmers is 0-2 in split decisions in the UFC, with the most recent coming in a fight that 100% of media scored for him. Amil's last win was a split decision — though one he likely deserved — which he followed up with a knockout loss.
On the other hand, the line has already begun to move towards Amil after he opened around -115, with the majority of public picks also on his side. That was my initial lean as well, since the fighters Emmers has officially beaten since his ACL injury are a combined 2-7 in the UFC.
I'm coming down on the side of line movement here, and jumping on Amil's line before it goes any further. The -135 at DraftKings is the best available, but a few different books have that price as of Monday afternoon.
Verdict: Amil Undervalued
Josh Hokit (-395) vs. Max Gimenis (+310)
I was not a fan of the overall skill set from Josh Hokit when I broke down his tape for the Contender Series. He's a former fullback for the 49ers practice squad, who was also an NCAA All-American wrestler in college. However, his game is extremely one-dimensional, as he looks to shoot for takedowns immediately into his fights, then tries to finish with ground and pound.
That works to a certain level, given his wrestling pedigree and athleticism, but only to a point. One of the worst potential matchups for him stylistically would be a high-level grappler who can threaten him on the ground — which is exactly what he has in Gimenis. The Brazilian has won some prestigious grappling events in both gi and nogi competition, which makes taking him down a scary proposition for Hokit.
While I don't think Gimenis could take Hokit down, at worst, that would lead to a sloppy striking match. I haven't seen much striking ability from either man and would give Hokit a slight edge due to his athleticism, but not enough to justify his nearly -400 odds.
I'm putting half of a unit on Gimenis now, and will potentially be adding on with his submission prop later in the week. The best line is +340 at BetRivers.
Verdict: Gimenis Undervalued
