Photo credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Anthony Davis and LeBron James
- The 2019 NBA trade deadline is looming at 3 p.m. ET this afternoon.
- Below, our NBA experts, including Rob Perez (World Wide Wob) and Matt Moore (HPBasketball), discuss everything happening on this eventful day.
Happy NBA Trade Deadline Day!
Follow along with all the madness below, as our crew of betting and DFS experts break down the impact of each deal in real-time.
2019 NBA Trade Deadline Chat
bryan.mears [10:03 AM]: Let’s start here: Which player would you be most surprised if they didn’t get moved today + why?
Player Most Likely to Be Moved?
evan.abrams [10:19 AM]: This may be really simple and obvious, but if by 3 p.m. Marc Gasol is still in Memphis, I would be shocked. His time there is done, he has meant everything to that franchise and I just think they find a way to move him and move on. I honestly wanted to say Kanter, but I can’t trust the Knicks to do the right thing and move him today.
matt.moore [10:20 AM]: Marc Gasol. You don’t want to deal with him the rest of the season if you don’t move him. He’ll play. He’ll play well at times. But you will have jerked him around and that’s just not a good idea. Throw in the financial impacts for Robert Pera and I don’t see any way he stays. They can take on a huge contract and still come out ahead in money. Do not underestimate how important the money factor is here.
bryan.mears [10:22 AM]: Gasol would be my pick, too. Notably, he’s not traveling with the team now because of a potential trade and won’t play tonight obviously. Considering that potential trade is with the Hornets, who absolutely LOVE giving up young players and future assets for veterans, I’m expecting Memphis-Charlotte to figure it out.
bryan.mears [10:23 AM]: Alright, I’m gonna turn you guys into oddsmakers. Set a line on Anthony Davis getting moved today.
Odds Anthony Davis Is Moved?
matt.moore [10:24 AM]: OK, I’m going to take a different approach here. The whole objective is to get the money on either side, while limiting your exposure, right? I’m going to say No -200. I’ll have to take on a lot of no money, but the exposure risk is HIGH here. New Orleans is operating very much in a cone of silence, and the Lakers deal may honestly be the best one they think they can get. No definitely needs to be favored. But I can’t go higher than that.
justin [10:28 AM]: +500, which puts the implied odds right above 15%. The Pelicans just don’t have much reason to re-engage the Lakers right now as their current offer (or a version that includes most of the same pieces) will still be on the table this summer. It makes all the sense in the world for Dell Demps to wait the Lakers out and let the Celtics potentially drive up the price even more.
bryan.mears [10:30 AM]: The Lakers pretending the deal won’t be there this summer is definitely in the running for worst bluff of the year. Zero people believe that.
evan.abrams [10:34 AM]: I’m with Justin. Think the real odds could be something like -600 no, +450 yes. Incentive to deal today is relatively low imo and AD has still opened his options enough to a few teams where NOP can wait out the season, especially with the Lakers drama.
matt.moore [10:36 AM]: I’ve just seen too many of these things where it’s like “It sure seems like this won’t… wait, I’m getting a report… yes it appears this has happened.” I don’t trust GMs. I will say the word around the league is that the Pelicans have “circled the wagons” and effectively re-established their leverage (thanks to the Lakers imploding).
justin [10:37 AM]: Even if you’re not long on Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball, the Lakers undoubtedly offered a LOT in their latest proposal. And the Pelicans still haven’t responded to that offer. Not sure what more the Lakers could add at this point to incentivize the Pels to get back to the table before the deadline.
bryan.mears [10:39 AM]: Yeah, I think the Pels may very well take what the Lakers are offering. Just not until they actually get a firm offer from Boston, which can’t happen until July 1 bc of a CBA rule.
Odds of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol Getting Traded
bryan.mears [10:41 AM]: Odds of Gasol and Conley moving?
matt.moore [10:42 AM]: Gasol YES has to be -500. My understanding is there’s confidence from both sides the pick protections will get worked out, and both sides are just posturing before the deadline. Conley’s trickier. I think Conley’s more like no -300 at this point. His agent getting out that he doesn’t want to play in Utah hurt their leverage badly.
justin [10:43 AM]: Understandably a lot of talk is about Gasol and Conley, but would keep an eye out for Garrett Temple, JaMychal Green, and Justin Holiday as well. All three are on expiring deals and strong candidates to be moved before the deadline.
bryan.mears [10:44 AM]: Yeah, @matt.lamarca wrote about Green as an underrated trade candidate here.
matt.moore [10:45 AM]: Green’s so good and so valuable in the modern era, especially a a bench guy.
Will Markelle Fultz Get Moved?
justin [10:47 AM]: What’s the likelihood we see Markelle Fultz moved? Have heard Terrence Ross being tossed around a lot as a guy Philly could be looking at.
bryan.mears [10:47 AM]: Ooh good q
justin [10:47 AM]: I’d put it around 60% personally. The Sixers will be eyeing the buyout market like they did last year with Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli, but they need all the bench help they can get right now. Getting off Fultz’s $9.75M contract next year is an added benefit as well given the contracts coming to Jimmy Butler and/or Tobias Harris.
matt.moore [10:48 AM]: I just heard that last night Fultz talks got hot with several teams. The fact it didn’t go down is not a great sign, but the Sixers are no longer trying to keep those talks quiet.
bryan.mears [11:15 AM]: I’m surprised some really bad teams haven’t taken a shot on a trade. Maybe the 76ers are just asking too much, but for like the Suns, there’s zero downside risk and a ton of upside, even if he’s at like 2% likelihood now to get back to what he was. Assuming the price is as low as I think it probably is, it’s a free lotto ticket for lots of teams that desperately need one.
We’re All Waiting
bryan.mears [11:53 AM]: Was terrified to go to sleep last night but now complete silence.
justin [12:02 PM]:
Nikola Mirotic Sent to Milwaukee
bryan.mears [12:53 PM]: Well now we got one. Nikola Mirotic to Milwaukee. Not sure what’s going back yet.
bryan.mears [12:53 PM]: This is at least 100% confirmation that AD will move at some point, given the Pels are selling off his surrounding pieces.
peter.jennings [12:56 PM]: Some value in Milwaukee futures
bryan.mears [12:56 PM]: Where do you think the best value is? Division, conference, title?
peter.jennings [12:57 PM]: Conference
bryan.mears [12:59 PM]: Seeing the Bucks at +250 to win the East right now at Westgate
jay [12:59 PM]: which conference semis is more exciting? MIL-PHI-BOS-TOR or GSW-DEN-OKC-HOU
bryan.mears [1:00 PM]: For reference, Celtics are +200 + Raps and 76ers are +225
bryan.mears [1:09 PM]: Looks like the trade is Mirotic to the Bucks, and the Pelicans are getting Stanley Johnson, Jason Smith and “multiple” second-round picks.
bryan.mears [1:13 PM]: Thoughts on Niko’s fit with the Bucks? Guessing this bumps Brogdon out of the starting lineup back into a sixth man role and we’ll see Middleton at the 2. (Also poor Nik Stauskas [just traded to the Pacers], three teams in three days.) I guess four if you count his original team.
matt.moore [1:20 PM]: It’s a great get. And yeah, the conference title odds are for sure a good time. I got in preseason and might double down at +250. This is also clearly a move to solidify their Giannis-at-5 lineup. Bledsoe-Middleton-Snell-Mirotic-Giannis or Bledsoe-Hill-Middleton-Mirotic-Giannis.
Both of those are Boston beaters.
peter.jennings [1:22 PM]: Brog over Hill or Snell I love, too
matt.moore [1:22 PM]: Another good one: Bled-Brogdon-Middleton-Mirotic-Giannis. And that’s when they DON’T use the Lopez-Giannis combo of doom.
bryan.mears [1:30 PM]: Reminder: The Bucks lead the entire NBA with a +10.3 point differential, per Cleaning the Glass. Their futures are discounted bc of historical struggles in the playoffs, but if you purely look at the data — before this trade — they are legit title contenders.
matt.moore [1:30 PM]: That’s why their in-season adjustments are so big. Usually you can see the problems coming from down the street and teams don’t do anything about them. Milwaukee had back-up point guard issues, so they got George Hill. They had problems with small-ball lineups, so they started using Giannis and DJ Wilson more, then added Mirotic. Milwaukee got great value on the deal and potentially solved a significant matchup problem in the process. Take a friggin’ bow, Jon Horst.
The Marc Gasol Deal
matt.moore [1:52 PM]:
bryan.mears [1:52 PM]: Woahhh
matt.moore [1:52 PM]: legggggggo
justin [1:52 PM]: omg
vik.chokshi [1:53 PM]: wowzers
jack.settleman [2:00 PM]:
bryan.mears [2:00 PM]: lol whoops
bryan.mears [2:01 PM]: Thoughts on this move from Toronto?
matt.moore [2:04 PM]: Memphis was never going to get great return. The rumors about the protections on Charlotte’s picks weren’t great. They get Delon Wright, who is a really nice up-and-coming point guard, a solid starter in JV and Miles who may be a buyout candidate. That one was fine. Sending Temple and Green for Avery Bradley is a big net loss.
travis.reed [2:05 PM]: Not feeling as great about the Bucks futures as I was half an hour ago.
matt.moore [2:06 PM]: I would go higher. Milwaukee got more athletic. I, longtime Marc Gasol stan, do not know if he can hang the way he used to.
matt.moore [2:07 PM]: If Milwaukee pushes pace, that’s going to be hard on him.
matt.moore [2:10 PM]: But lucky for them, they keep Siakam and Ibaka. So they can counter.
peter.jennings [2:21 PM]: Yeah, Gasol will be helpful vs. Embiid and can match up well with Brook, too.
peter.jennings [2:29 PM]: What the hell is going on with this Clippers-Lakers trade?
matt.moore [2:31 PM]:
justin [2:31 PM]: opened up a roster spot :eyes:
matt.moore [2:31 PM]: OK sure
bryan.mears [2:38 PM]: The Grizzlies are keeping Conley apparently
matt.moore [2:39 PM]: Feel bad for Mike. He’ll be fine with it; he’s a trooper. He’s probably gone at the draft. Teams likely want to see where they stand in the lottery and with free agency (which officially starts in July and actually starts in June) before making a deal.
The Markelle Fultz Deal
matt.moore [2:39 PM]: oooh Fultz to Orlando
travis.reed [2:43 PM]: And somebody takes a chance on Fultz
justin [2:44 PM]: ross, like discussed earlier. or not.
matt.moore [2:45 PM]: I like that for Philly. They have so many lineup options now.
justin [2:46 PM]: wow a first
peter.jennings [2:48 PM]: Bad first though: 21-30 for OKC and converts to two seconds.
matt.moore [2:48 PM]: ah, that’s perfect, though. perfect value.
peter.jennings [2:48 PM]:
Betting and DFS Tonight
matt.moore [2:57 PM]: I see you grabbing Indiana over there, Phan
justin [2:57 PM]: the clips have like 8 guys lol
peter.jennings [2:58 PM]: Yeah, sharp. Clippers in DFS is going to be annoying today.
matt.moore [3:07 PM]: probably worth it to look at Memphis , LAC, and ORL being shorthanded tonight ATS.
justin [3:09 PM]: I looked at okc but already -14. Orlando only lost Simmons? They’ve been playing without him. Just plug Iwundu in his spot like they have been.
matt.moore [3:10 PM]: mmmm good point
marky.mark [3:10 PM]: Westgate just moved their title odds
- 76ers: 10-1 to 9-1
- Celtics: 8-1 to 9-1
- Raptors: 10-1 to 9-1
- Bucks: 12-1 to 9-1
marky.mark [3:12 PM]: lakers also fell back from 16-1 to 40-1
matt.moore [3:12 PM]: JESUS.
justin [3:13 PM]: i mean they did lose michael beasley. makes sense.