NBA Playoffs Game 7 Betting Cheat Sheet: Odds, Trends, Analysis for Nuggets-Trail Blazers, 76ers-Raptors
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (center) stands during the national anthem.
- We have two Game 7s on hand to decide our conference finalists in the East and West.
- See all of our coverage including coverage including player props, DFS and game breakdowns for Blazers-Nuggets & 76ers-Raptors
Thanks to Stephen Curry’s second-half heroics, we’ll have to settle for just two Game 7s to decide who makes this year’s conference finals.
The Nuggets have the chance to close out their series against the Trail Blazers at home. Kawhi Leonard and the Raptors will look to fend off the 76ers in the north.
Here’s a snippet of all the Game 7 betting and fantasy content.
Can Momentum Carry Over?
The Blazers and Sixers have momentum on their side after forcing a decisive Game 7. Portland’s offense came to life as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined to score 62 points on Thursday. The shots were also falling for Philly, as the team scored 112 points after being held to 96 or fewer points in the previous two matchups.
Does the momentum from a Game 6 victory carry over?
The data implies it doesn’t. Teams that won the previous game have gone 20-25 straight up and 23-22 against the spread in Game 7s since 2005.
As underdogs, the Blazers and Sixers are in a precarious position. Since 2005, teams getting points in Game 7 after winning Game 6 have gone 8-20 SU and 13-15 ATS. — John Ewing
For more Game 7 trends, check out John Ewing’s piece here.
Here’s what I said about Leonard prior to Game 6:
There is no reason why you should not be rostering Kawhi Leonard in 100% of your lineups at this point. The 76ers have had absolutely no answer for him on the offensive end, as he’s shooting a ridiculous 59.0% from the field, 40.6% from 3-point range and 83.7% from the free throw line. He’s also posted an average usage rate of 33.3%, so he’s managed to maintain elite efficiency despite commanding a large workload. Just lock him in and say thank you to anyone who chooses to fade him.
53.0 DraftKings points later, nothing has really changed for Game 7. He owns the highest ceiling and median projections in our NBA Models, making him an elite target in all formats. — Matt Lamarca
For more fantasy analysis, read Lamarca’s full DFS breakdown here.
Blazers SF Maurice Harkless
The Picks: Under 4.5 rebounds (-135) and under 6.5 points (-145)
I’m selling Harkless everywhere I can tonight. He’s seen a major reduction in playing time as this series has progressed, playing 17.5 minutes or less in each of his past three games.
He has averaged just 3.7 points and 3.0 rebounds per game over that time frame, which makes the unders very appealing for Game 7. He could see even fewer minutes if the Blazers’ choose to play their key players a few extra minutes with their season on the line. — Matt Lamarca
For more Game 7 player props, check out Lamarca’s piece here.
The Denver Nuggets having home court is obviously huge here.
They were one of the best home teams in the regular season this year, going 25-16 (61%) ATS and covering by an average of 3.24 points per game. They had extreme home/road splits, which isn’t too surprising given the elevation factor plus how young their core is.
That split has largely held true in the playoffs. Here’s how these teams have performed at home vs. on the road:
- Nuggets: +8.3 Net Rating at home | -5.6 on the road
- Blazers: +6.5 Net Rating at home | -4.8 on the road
The issue, of course, is that bookmakers certainly know this trend, and they adjust the spread accordingly. The Blazers were -4 in Game 6 in Portland, and now this Game 7 line is Nuggets -5.5. — Bryan Mears
For more on Trail Blazers-Nuggets, check out our betting guide here.
The mystery of Joel Embiid adds at least one more chapter in this postseason. Much like with Games 4, 5 and 6, I was hesitant to give any opinion on the side or total because Embiid’s status was so uncertain. He’s kind of a big deal.
In each of those three games we had three very different outcomes: a close Raptors win, a blowout Raptors win and a blowout 76ers win. What will we get when we spin the wheel again on Sunday?
What I do know is that for someone with Embiid’s litany of health issues, the extra day of rest can only help. Can he distance himself from illness even if the lingering tendinitis remains?
His offense was still very rusty in Game 6, but his defense was exemplary on Pascal Siakam; that was a big reason why he finished with a plus-minus of +40. 40!!
And he shot only 5-for-14. Really an amazing statistical confluence if there ever was one. Even that type of performance at both ends may be enough here, but he can’t slip back into passive, fatigued, lazy Embiid. — Ken Barkley
For more on 76ers-Raptors, read our betting guide here
The moment Toronto Raptors President Masai Ujiri signed off on the blockbuster Kawhi Leonard/DeMar DeRozan trade this past summer, he sat at that same table with Teddy KGB.
The Raptors were drowning in playoff mediocrity, and while keeping DeRozan and Kyle Lowry together for the next two seasons was a more than safe play to guarantee postseason berths, the Raptors would have had to live with the East’s elite ‘sticking it in them’ every time the conference finals started.
What has transpired since the transaction is as close to the nuts as you can get without actually having it: Kawhi Leonard is a nuclear weapon who has been deployed on the basketball world and there’s no override. — Rob Perez
To read more about the Raptors and Leonard’s pending free agency decision check out Rob’s piece here.