Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Ben Simmons Points, More

Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Ben Simmons Points, More article feature image
Credit:

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons (25).

  • Sunday's two-game winner-take-all NBA slate features four prop bets providing value.
  • This piece will focus on Blazers SF Moe Harkless, 76ers PG Ben Simmons, and 76ers C Joel Embiid.

Sunday’s best NBA player props come from both of today’s crucial Game 7’s:

  • Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets: 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
  • Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: 7 p.m. ET on TNT

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11:15 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Blazers SF Maurice Harkless

The Picks: Under 4.5 rebounds (-135) and under 6.5 points (-145)

I’m selling Harkless everywhere I can tonight. He’s seen a major reduction in playing time as this series has progressed, playing 17.5 minutes or less in each of his past three games.

Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Portland Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless (4).

He has averaged just 3.7 points and 3.0 rebounds per game over that time frame, which makes the unders very appealing for Game 7. He could see even fewer minutes if the Blazers’ choose to play their key players a few extra minutes with their season on the line.

I love both of these unders, and each has a Bet Quality of 10 in the Player Prop tool. I’d play them up to -160.

76ers PG Ben Simmons

The Pick: Under 14.5 points (-120)

Simmons exploded for 21 points in his last contest, which has caused his scoring prop to become inflated for Game 7 vs. the Raptors.

He shot 9-of-13 from the field in that contest, so he’s a prime candidate for some regression. He’s scored 14 points or fewer in every other game vs. the Raptors during the postseason, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 101.5 is the lowest mark on the slate.

Simmons is good at a lot of things on a basketball court, but scoring is not one of them. I’d play the under up to -130.

76ers C Joel Embiid

The Pick: Over 10.5 rebounds (-125)

This prop really all comes down to Embiid’s health. He’s a much better rebounder than this prop is giving him credit for, as he averaged 14.6 rebounds per 36 minutes during the regular season. He has only gone over 10 rebounds in one of his previous contests in this series, but his minutes have been limited due to a variety of illnesses and injuries.

Credit: James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) fights for a rebound.

That said, he did grab 12 rebounds in his last contest, and he’s currently projected for 38.1 minutes on today’s slate.

If Embiid is going to see a few additional minutes today – which is usually a fair assumption for star players in must-win games – he should be able to crush this line. I’d play the over up to -140.