Warriors-Bucks Betting Preview: Will Golden State Get Revenge?

Betting odds: Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks

• Spread: Bucks -2
• Over/Under: 239.5
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

In the first meeting between these teams this year, the Milwaukee Bucks blew out the defending champion Warriors in Golden State, 134-111. That was the game Stephen Curry first went down with a groin injury, but he's back and healthy now. Can the Dubs get revenge in Milwaukee? Our crew dives in…

Moore: Why I Like the Warriors Moneyline

After the Bucks beat the Warriors, there was a widespread discussion that Milwaukee might own the key to beating Golden State: High 3-point shooting and a singular mega-forward who forces double teams to disrupt what Golden State wants to do. There are two issues here.

1. Being able to beat the Warriors is entirely different from being able to consistently beat the Warriors.
2. It assumes no adjustments. Steve Kerr is reticent to make changes, even in a playoff series, but the Warriors do adapt over time and find solutions. They may not fully tip that hand here in case the two teams meet in the playoffs, but it’s tough to catch Golden State off-guard twice in a row.

The Bucks have held firm the last two months and continue to be stellar on both sides of the ball. They have the athleticism and shooting to keep up with the Warriors, especially without Draymond Green (who is a game-time decision tonight) to disrupt things. And they’re at home.

And still, I lean towards the Warriors moneyline here. The Warriors still have moments where they feel the need to compete in the regular season, and Curry shook off his rust from the Pistons’ loss last Saturday with his detonation vs. Cleveland.

The Warriors are much better than bad teams (nobody likes beating up weaklings more than Golden State) but with a spot like this, there just seems more value.

Maybe that’s archaic thinking: It's hard trusting in a Warriors team that so routinely fails regular season tests out of sheer complacency, especially without Green.

But the Warriors still have the two most impactful players on the floor.

The line shows how much of a coin flip this game is on the surface, but there still feels like more value in trusting the Warriors not to lose twice to any team, let alone one talked about as a challenger. — Matt Moore

Locky: Why I'm Betting the Over Tonight

It seems like forever since these two teams last played … but it was just about a month ago on November 7.

How much has changed for the Warriors? Stephen Curry got injured in that game, the Warriors lost by 23 at home and that started quite the downward spiral.

Curry missed games, the team struggled and Kevin Durant and Draymond Green got into it on the bench along the way. Steve Kerr was basically telling the media the team’s emotional stability was broken. Durant is still telling people to shut up and watch the game.

Now, on the day of these contenders’ second meeting, are the Warriors finally coming out of their slump? They had an encouraging beatdown of Cleveland on Wednesday, with Curry going off for 42 points, his best game since returning from injury.

There were several issues in the first meeting (aside from Curry’s injury in the second half) from the Warriors’ standpoint.

First, they had too many turnovers (18), which created more possessions for Milwaukee, but they also allowed a staggering 84 points in the paint.

Further, the Bucks guards significantly outplayed the Splash Brothers — Curry and Thompson put up a combined plus/minus of -54, and Curry shot 5-for-14.

Of those issues, the interior defense is the most likely to hurt the Warriors again with Draymond still out (although he’s listed as questionable now for the game) and Damian Jones out as well.

What stands out most in terms of the teams’ current form is defensive inconsistency. That first Milwaukee game represents the worst Golden State defensive performance of the season.

But even in the three games that Curry has been back, the Warriors defense has been inconsistent at best, while the offense has predictably skyrocketed.

Meanwhile for the Bucks, their current form has also featured more inconsistent defensive play.

Prior to the blowout win over the Pistons Wednesday night, the team had a long stretch of poor defensive performances, culminating with a loss to the Knicks earlier this week in which they put up a Defensive Rating of 118.8.

The Bucks are dead last in the league on shooting percentage allowed via mid-range (per Cleaning the Glass) and although they are No. 1 at defending at the rim, they are average-to-below-average all around the 3-point line.

A team with shooting like Golden State should be able to execute fairly well against this defense. The Warriors did score with frequency in the first meeting, they just got no stops.

The total in the first meeting was 242 and barely went over, but that was in a blowout and with Curry out after the middle of the third quarter. Now in the rematch, with both teams’ defenses still inconsistent, the market is at 240.

I think these teams are designed to score very effectively against each other (one at the rim, one from range) and very little can change that. Between the side and total, my bet would be the over at 240.— Ken Barkley

Betting Trends to Know

Under Kerr, the Warriors have a tendency to play to their competition. Against teams with a losing record, they have gone 76-83-2 (48%) ATS, but against opponents with a winning record they are 86-76-2 (53%) ATS in the regular season. It has been profitable to bet on the Warriors when they play the best teams in the league (win rate of 60% or higher), as they are 51-35-1 (59%) ATS against those opponents in regular season games. — John Ewing

Not only do the Warriors have a tendency to play to their competition, but during the regular season, when they face top teams across the league, they dominate against the West and tend to struggle a bit with unfamiliar opponents in the East.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 41-21 ATS (66.1%) when facing a Western Conference team with a win rate of at least 60%. Against the East, however, the Warriors are just 15-17-1 ATS (46.9%) against those opponents, including 3-9 ATS since the beginning of last season. The Warriors are the second-least profitable team in the NBA in that spot ahead of just the Cavaliers. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.